New York time: 8:56 a.m. ET on Friday, December 26, 2025.
With U.S. markets heading into a thinly traded post‑Christmas session, Almonty Industries Inc. (NASDAQ: ALM) is landing in front of investors at a moment when “materials” stories can move fast: the company has just hit a major operational milestone at its flagship Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea and has recently completed a sizeable U.S. equity raise to fund a broader tungsten pipeline. [1]
Below is a news-and-forecast round‑up focused on what matters right now—before the next regular trading session begins.
Is the stock market open right now?
At 8:56 a.m. ET, the regular Nasdaq session is not yet open. Nasdaq’s standard market hours run 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, with extended-hours trading (pre‑market and after‑hours) available via many brokers. [2]
Today’s broader tape also matters for a smaller materials name like ALM. Reuters described a subdued, light post‑Christmas setup for U.S. equities on December 26, with futures near flat and investors looking ahead to potential rate cuts and 2026 earnings growth. [3]
What investors should know before the next session: holiday-week liquidity can be patchy. Wider spreads and sharper intraday moves are more common—especially in smaller-cap stocks—so execution (limit orders, patience, and position sizing) matters more than usual. [4]
ALM stock price check: where Almonty stands this morning
As of the latest available quote this morning, ALM traded around $9.44, up about $0.61 versus the prior close (roughly +6.8%).
A practical note for readers: Almonty also trades on other venues (including TSX: AII), so headlines and analyst targets may reference different currencies and different tickers depending on the listing being discussed. [5]
The biggest catalyst: Sangdong moves from “build” to “mine”
Almonty says first ore is now on the ROM pad at Sangdong
On December 16, 2025, Almonty announced it began commercial mining at its Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea, with the first truckload of ore delivered to the ROM (run‑of‑mine) pad—a step the company framed as the transition from development into active mining operations, and “the final step before commencement of commercial production.” [6]
The company also walked investors through what comes next operationally: crushing, grinding, flotation, and then stability/performance verification before moving into a stabilization phase on the way to full‑scale commercial operation. [7]
Management’s strategic framing: supply chain + defense timelines
CEO Lewis Black tied Sangdong’s significance to the push by the U.S., EU, and Korea to diversify away from a market the company described as dominated by China, and discussed Sangdong as part of a longer-term integrated value chain (“Korean Trinity”) including an upcoming tungsten oxide plant and a planned molybdenum development. [8]
That “non‑China supply” narrative isn’t happening in a vacuum: U.S. defense procurement rules around tungsten-related products tighten meaningfully in 2027, and Reuters has highlighted the approaching deadline and the West’s hunt for non‑China tungsten supply. [9]
Capital raise update: Almonty closes a $129.4 million U.S. offering
Financing is a big deal for mining equities because it can both de‑risk execution (more cash) and dilute existing shareholders (more shares).
On December 10, 2025, Almonty announced it closed its upsized U.S. underwritten offering including full exercise of the over‑allotment option, raising $129.375 million gross by selling 20.7 million shares at $6.25 per share. [10]
Management said that with the proceeds, the company is “fully capitalized” for the exploration/expansion plans described in the prospectus supplement and stated it had no present intention of completing further offerings under the company’s base shelf prospectus. [11]
Investor takeaway before the open: this is a classic mining-stock trade‑off. The cash can accelerate projects and reduce balance‑sheet anxiety—but the additional shares increase dilution risk if project milestones slip or commodity prices turn.
Operational pipeline: Panasqueira drilling and the new Montana project
Panasqueira (Portugal): a 12‑month drilling campaign aimed at expansion
On November 17, 2025, Almonty said it started a large‑scale drilling program at its Panasqueira mine in Portugal to define a mine plan for expansion into a new production level (“Level 4”), with ~14,000 meters of drilling across three rigs over ~12 months and an estimated investment of €2.5 million. [12]
Gentung Browns Lake (Montana): U.S. footprint and “near-term production” ambitions
Almonty is also building a U.S. tungsten platform. In its Q3 materials, the company described acquiring a strategic U.S. tungsten project in Beaverhead County, Montana for $10 million (aggregate consideration) and positioning it for “near‑term production as early as the second half of 2026.” [13]
A commissioned Diamond Equity Research update note (more on the “commissioned” part below) describes NI 43‑101 mineral resources of 7.53 Mt at 0.315% WO₃ for Gentung Browns Lake and outlines an output concept of roughly 140,000 MTUs per year under initial design parameters, with a production readiness target of H2 2026. [14]
Why tungsten is suddenly “front page” again
Mining stocks don’t move on geology alone; they move on prices, politics, and procurement rules.
1) Tungsten prices: rising costs are hitting industrial users
Reuters reported in October that tungsten prices surged above $600 per metric ton unit (mtu) from roughly $330–$340 earlier in the year, with Chinese export controls tightening supply—raising costs for industrial users like U.S. shale drillers that rely on tungsten-heavy drill bits. [15]
Industry reporting from China Tungsten Industry News Center described European APT (ammonium paratungstate) around $825–$900/mtu as of December 24, 2025, while noting year‑end profit-taking and a market split between bullish supply‑tightness narratives and cautious, wait‑and‑see demand behavior. [16]
2) China’s export controls: licensing requirements broadened in 2025
In February, Reuters reported that China announced export restrictions requiring licenses for certain products related to tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium, and molybdenum, framing the move as part of an evolving critical-minerals trade conflict backdrop. [17]
3) The West’s “non‑China tungsten” scramble is real policy, not just a talking point
A Reuters commodities analysis noted that the U.S. has not mined tungsten commercially since 2015 and highlighted a 2027 deadline tied to halting purchases of tungsten manufactured or mined in China or Russia for the U.S. military supply chain. [18]
Separately, DFARS clause 252.225‑7052 spells out how restrictions expand in 2027 to include upstream parts of the supply chain for certain covered tungsten products. [19]
This policy backdrop helps explain why a “single‑asset milestone” at Sangdong can punch above its weight: investors aren’t just watching a mine—they’re watching a potential chokepoint solution.
Q3 2025 snapshot: what the company reported (and what it means)
Almonty’s third‑quarter 2025 release included a few headline items investors typically weigh heading into a project ramp:
- Revenue:C$8.7 million in Q3 2025, up about 28% year over year, attributed largely to increased tungsten prices and steady Panasqueira output. [20]
- Net income:C$33.2 million, driven primarily by a warrant liability revaluation gain (a non‑cash accounting item), with management also pointing to a simplification of FX-related noise from certain options. [21]
- Cash:C$111.6 million as of September 30, 2025, reflecting earlier financing activity. [22]
- Strategic milestone context: management described Sangdong construction as substantially complete with ramp‑up underway toward commissioning and commercial production. [23]
Investor takeaway: the “quality” of earnings matters. A large net-income print driven by revaluation gains is not the same as recurring operating profitability, so many investors will focus on cash position, commissioning progress, and eventually realized pricing/volumes.
Analyst targets and forecasts for Almonty stock
Forecasts aren’t facts; they’re opinions with spreadsheets. Still, they influence flows.
MarketBeat (NASDAQ: ALM): Moderate Buy, ~$10.17 average target
MarketBeat shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus for ALM, based on 4 analyst ratings, and lists an average 12‑month price target of $10.17 (high $12.00, low $6.50) from the analysts it tracks. [24]
Investing.com (TSX: AII): Strong Buy, average target ~C$10.45 (targets vary)
Investing.com’s consensus view for AII shows an overall “Strong Buy” profile (with buy/hold counts reported on the page) and lists an average 12‑month target around 10.4483 (with a stated high/low range), while also showing the 52‑week range and a “downside” figure that reflects the page’s current-price assumption for that listing/currency. [25]
Diamond Equity Research update note: valuation C$11.00 (commissioned research)
A Diamond Equity Research “Update Note” dated December 11, 2025 lists a share price of C$9.36 and a valuation of C$11.00, and includes model-based revenue/EPS forecasts. [26]
Important disclosure: the GlobeNewswire release explicitly states the report is commissioned by Almonty and includes compensation disclosures. Treat it like sponsored research: useful for understanding a bullish case and model assumptions, but not independent sell‑side coverage. [27]
What to watch before the next session and into early 2026
With the regular session approaching (9:30 a.m. ET), here’s the investor checklist that actually matters for Almonty Industries (ALM) stock:
1) Commissioning progress vs. “milestone headlines”
“First ore on the ROM pad” is a major step, but the market often re-prices on commissioning stability and repeatable concentrate output, not on a single operational headline. Almonty itself described additional verification and a stabilization phase ahead. [28]
2) How the new cash changes the risk profile
Closing the $129.375 million offering (with full over‑allotment) reduces near-term financing risk and funds multiple projects, but it also increases the share count. Watch for how the company updates timelines, capex, and ramp expectations now that it says it has no present intention of further raises under the base shelf. [29]
3) Tungsten pricing and policy headlines
Tungsten has become a “policy metal” in 2025: export controls, defense procurement rules, and allied supply‑chain strategies can move sentiment quickly. Reuters reporting on Chinese export controls and the West’s 2027 defense timeline helps frame why tungsten names can decouple from the broader mining pack. [30]
4) Today’s tape: holiday liquidity + broader market mood
Reuters described today as light post‑Christmas trading, with a near‑flat setup. In that environment, smaller stocks can gap on relatively modest order flow—up or down—especially if investors are repositioning into year‑end themes like “materials,” “defense,” or “critical minerals.”
Bottom line
As of this morning in New York, Almonty Industries (ALM) is heading into the next regular session with two market-moving narratives in play:
- Execution: Sangdong is shifting from build-out to active mining, with processing ramp and commissioning the next key proof points.
- Strategic tailwinds: policy-driven demand for non‑China tungsten supply—plus tangible capital to pursue a broader U.S./Europe/Korea tungsten platform—keeps ALM on the radar in a market that is actively pricing supply‑chain risk.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.nasdaq.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.nasdaq.com, 5. almonty.com, 6. www.businesswire.com, 7. www.businesswire.com, 8. www.businesswire.com, 9. www.acquisition.gov, 10. www.businesswire.com, 11. www.businesswire.com, 12. almonty.com, 13. almonty.com, 14. almonty.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.ctia.com.cn, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.acquisition.gov, 20. almonty.com, 21. almonty.com, 22. almonty.com, 23. almonty.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. ml.globenewswire.com, 27. www.globenewswire.com, 28. www.businesswire.com, 29. www.businesswire.com, 30. www.reuters.com
