Almonty Industries Inc. stock is back in the market’s spotlight on Thursday, December 18, 2025, as investors digest a rare combo of real-world progress underground and capital-markets cleanup above ground. The company says it has delivered the first truckload of ore to the run‑of‑mine (ROM) pad at its flagship Sangdong Tungsten Mine in South Korea—an operational handoff from “build mode” into “mine mode,” and a key step on the road to full-scale tungsten concentrate production. [1]
In the U.S. listing, Almonty Industries (NASDAQ: ALM) traded around $8.52 late in the session, up roughly 8.7% versus the prior close, with heavy volume (about 2.9M shares) and a wide intraday range—classic “news + momentum” behavior.
Below is what’s driving Almonty Industries stock today, what the newest coverage says, and what the near-term catalysts (and risks) look like as of 18.12.2025.
The headline catalyst: Sangdong delivers first ore to the ROM pad
Almonty announced that the first truckload of ore has been delivered to the ROM pad at Sangdong. In mining terms, this is not a vibes-based milestone—it’s a practical proof that the haulage routes, staging, and production workflows are functioning under “real material” conditions. [2]
The company also spelled out what happens next in the processing chain:
- ore is stockpiled by grade at the ROM pad
- then moves through primary/secondary crushing
- then grinding to target particle size
- then the flotation circuit to concentrate tungsten-bearing minerals
- then drying and packaging for downstream customers [3]
Almonty framed the moment as the bridge from development into commissioning and ramp-up, noting that after stability and performance verification, the project shifts into a production stabilization phase as it advances toward full-scale commercial operation. [4]
Just as importantly (for markets), management positioned Sangdong as a strategic supply-chain asset for the U.S., EU, and Korea—arguing the project supports diversification away from a tungsten market the company says is still dominated by China. [5]
Why investors care so much about tungsten right now (and not just because it sounds cool)
Tungsten is one of those elements that behaves like it was engineered for industrial drama: extremely hard, extremely high melting point, and used across defense and high-tech manufacturing.
A Reuters analysis earlier this year emphasized how concentrated the tungsten supply chain is, citing U.S. Geological Survey data showing China’s dominance of global mine production and highlighting that the United States has not mined tungsten commercially since 2015, relying heavily on imports. [6]
Reuters also highlighted a specific policy clock that matters for Almonty’s narrative: the U.S. military faces a 2027 deadline tied to halting purchases of tungsten mined/manufactured in certain countries—an inflection that pushes Western buyers toward non-Chinese supply chains. [7]
Almonty’s own messaging explicitly links Sangdong (plus downstream processing plans) to U.S. defense procurement needs after 2027, describing a broader integrated value chain it calls the “Korean Trinity” (mine + tungsten oxide plant + adjacent molybdenum development). [8]
And yes: beyond policy, tungsten demand exposure spans sectors that markets can’t stop talking about—defense, semiconductors, aerospace, and “AI hardware” were all name-checked in Almonty’s announcement. [9]
The other big December story: dilution happened — and then the company tried to close the book on it
Operational milestones move stocks. But in December 2025, capital structure has been almost as important for ALM as geology.
The $129.375 million U.S. offering (now closed)
Almonty announced the closing of an upsized U.S. underwritten offering totaling $129.375 million in gross proceeds: 20.7 million shares priced at $6.25 (including full exercise of the over-allotment). The underwriter group was led by BofA Securities, with Cantor Fitzgerald, D.A. Davidson, and A.G.P./Alliance Global Partners also listed. [10]
The company said it intends to use proceeds for:
- exploration/development at Gentung Browns Lake (U.S. tungsten project)
- expansion work at Panasqueira (Portugal)
- exploration at Sangdong Molybdenum
- plus working capital and general corporate purposes [11]
Then came the shelf withdrawal
On December 15, Almonty said it would voluntarily withdraw its base shelf prospectus and corresponding Form F‑10 registration statement, stating the withdrawal followed completion of the upsized offering and that it does not intend to complete further offerings under those documents. [12]
That doesn’t erase dilution—those new shares exist—but it can reduce the market’s fear of near-term “surprise” financings via the same shelf.
Markets hate uncertainty more than they hate math
It’s also worth remembering the short-term pain that often accompanies equity raises. Investing.com reported that ALM dropped sharply after-hours following the announcement of a proposed offering earlier in the process (a common reaction when traders model dilution before they model what the cash enables). [13]
By December 18, however, ALM was trading meaningfully above the $6.25 offering price (around $8.52 intraday), implying the market is currently assigning more weight to the Sangdong ramp and strategic positioning than to the dilution headline. [14]
“What are analysts forecasting?” A split-screen picture, depending on which listing you watch
Forecasts for Almonty Industries stock are complicated by two realities:
- the company trades on multiple exchanges (NASDAQ: ALM; TSX: AII; ASX: AII; Frankfurt: ALI1) [15]
- the story is transitioning from “developer” to “producer,” and models tend to get re-rated (sometimes violently) around first production
Here’s what the major consensus-style sources show right now:
MarketBeat (NASDAQ: ALM)
MarketBeat lists four analysts with an average 12‑month price target of $10.17, ranging from $6.50 to $12.00. [16]
With ALM around $8.52 on Dec. 18, that average target implies something like ~19% upside—but remember: targets can lag fast-moving “milestone” stocks, and they can also be revised quickly after commissioning updates. [17]
Investing.com consensus (TSX: AII)
Investing.com’s consensus snapshot for AII shows a “Strong Buy” label, with an average target around 10.45 (high 14, low 7.5), based on projections it attributes to multiple analysts. [18]
That’s interesting because the AII shares have had a huge run—Investing.com’s page shows a ~709% 1‑year change and large market cap/shares outstanding figures—so “Strong Buy” sentiment can coexist with an average target that looks conservative after a rally. [19]
Commissioned research note (Diamond Equity Research)
A GlobeNewswire item published Dec. 11, 2025 publicized an “update note” produced by Diamond Equity Research—explicitly stating the report was commissioned by Almonty (so: read it as company-sponsored research, not independent coverage). [20]
Even so, it’s useful for understanding the bullish strategic framing circulating in the market: “leading non‑Chinese producer” positioning, a strengthened balance sheet post-offering, and the push into a U.S. operating footprint via Gentung Browns Lake. [21]
The underappreciated piece: offtake agreements and “floor prices” can change the risk profile
For early producers, “Can you sell it?” matters as much as “Can you mine it?”
In its Form F‑10 filing, Almonty describes:
- a 15‑year floor‑priced offtake contract with a U.S. defense contractor for tungsten concentrate
- a second offtake tied to tungsten oxide for U.S. defense applications
- and notes that more than 90% of Phase I production at Sangdong is supported by a 15‑year, floor‑priced offtake agreement [22]
The same filing also references a 15‑year offtake with Global Tungsten & Powders (GTP) (part of the Plansee Group) and provides detail on how the floor price is structured. [23]
Separately, Plansee Group itself has publicly discussed its long-term supply strategy, stating that its offtake agreement connected to Sangdong runs 15 years, and describing Sangdong as expected to become a meaningful source of non-China concentrates. [24]
Reuters also drew attention to the unusual nature of tungsten contracting (no major tungsten futures market), describing how a contract with a floor price and no upside cap can act like an insurance mechanism for project economics in a geopolitically stressed supply chain. [25]
Bottom line: floor-priced, long-duration offtakes can reduce one major category of risk (price collapse / demand uncertainty), while leaving other risks intact (commissioning, ramp-up, operating costs, metallurgy consistency, and execution).
Today’s “boots-on-the-ground” context: the defense supply chain narrative is getting more media oxygen
One reason Almonty Industries stock keeps showing up in “critical minerals” conversations is that the tungsten supply chain is becoming a national security storyline, not just a commodities storyline.
A National Defense Magazine report dated December 18, 2025 described efforts by mining companies to challenge China’s position in tungsten and highlighted Almonty’s multi-phase approach at Sangdong—moving from restart, into byproduct development, and eventually higher-purity processing (tungsten oxides). [26]
This kind of coverage matters because it widens the buyer/holder universe from “small-cap mining traders” to “strategic materials investors,” which tends to change how momentum behaves (often: more volume, more volatility, more narrative premium).
What investors are watching next (the real catalysts after the headline)
Now that “first ore to ROM pad” is on the board, the market typically pivots to a tougher set of questions—less ceremonial, more measurable:
- Commissioning results for crushing, milling, and flotation circuits (stability, recoveries, throughput). [27]
- Production stabilization and the ramp curve: how fast does the mine move toward steady commercial output? [28]
- First concentrate shipments / customer deliveries under offtake structures (proof of revenue conversion). [29]
- Downstream strategy: any concrete steps/timing on the tungsten oxide plant discussed in the “Korean Trinity” framing. [30]
- Capital discipline after the big raise: does the company stay within the “no present intention” messaging, and how does working capital track through ramp-up? [31]
Risks that don’t disappear just because the stock is up today
Almonty’s story has powerful tailwinds, but it’s still a resource company executing a complex start-up:
- Ramp-up risk: commissioning is where timelines and budgets go to be humbled. (Every mine is a snowflake; most snowflakes melt.) [32]
- Dilution hangover: the offering is done, but a bigger share count is still a bigger share count—valuation needs operating results to “grow into it.” [33]
- Financial profile: AAII’s Dec. 18 write-up cited trailing revenue around $20.7M with a deeply negative net margin, underscoring that Almonty is still in a transition phase financially. [34]
- Narrative volatility: when a stock becomes a symbol (critical minerals! defense! China!), it can swing harder than fundamentals in both directions.
None of that negates the bull case. It just explains why ALM/AII can move like a caffeinated seismograph around milestones.
Where Almonty Industries stock stands on 18.12.2025
As of December 18, 2025, the market is rewarding Almonty for two things at once:
- Execution evidence at Sangdong (ore is moving; the system is being tested with real material). [35]
- Financing clarity after the $129.375M raise and shelf withdrawal (less near-term dilution speculation). [36]
The next phase is less about headlines and more about metrics—throughput, recoveries, concentrate quality, delivery cadence, and costs. That’s where the story graduates from “strategic promise” to “cash-flow math,” and where analyst models tend to converge (or explode).
References
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