Alphabet Inc.’s Class C shares (NASDAQ: GOOG) head into the post‑Christmas reopening session with momentum, but also with a growing list of “big-ticket” variables investors will be re-pricing into year‑end positioning: AI infrastructure spending (and the power needed to run it), multiple antitrust fronts in the U.S. and Europe, and a deal pipeline that’s increasingly centered on cloud security and data‑center capacity.
Below is what matters most before the U.S. stock market opens Friday, December 26, 2025.
Where GOOG stands heading into Dec. 26: last price, holiday schedule, and the GOOG vs. GOOGL question
Last trade / last session context. The final U.S. equity session before Christmas was Wednesday, Dec. 24, and it was a shortened trading day (early close at 1:00 p.m. ET). [1]
As of the latest available pricing from the last trading day and after-hours data, GOOG was around $315–$316, essentially flat into the holiday, with light liquidity typical of Christmas Eve trading. [2]
GOOG vs. GOOGL in one sentence: GOOG is Alphabet’s Class C stock and carries no voting rights, while GOOGL is Class A with one vote per share—economic exposure is broadly similar, voting power is not. [3]
For most pre‑open traders and ETF flows, the practical implication is simple: GOOG and GOOGL often move nearly in lockstep, and the “spread” between the two is typically small compared with the bigger drivers (earnings, AI narratives, regulation, market risk-on/risk-off).
The headline catalyst into year-end: Alphabet’s $4.75B Intersect deal and the “power problem” for AI
The most market-relevant corporate headline in the past few days is Alphabet’s agreement to acquire Intersect Power in a deal valued at $4.75 billion in cash plus assumed debt, aimed squarely at solving a constraint that’s becoming existential for big AI players: reliable electricity and data‑center power infrastructure. [4]
Key details investors are focusing on:
- Scale and timeline: Reuters reported Intersect has $15 billion in assets that are operational or under construction, and projects expected to generate 10.8 gigawatts by 2028—a signal of how aggressively Big Tech is trying to lock in long‑duration power supply for AI workloads. [5]
- Strategic “why now”: The acquisition fits a theme that has been strengthening all year: Alphabet is leaning into AI not just in models and software, but in physical infrastructure—data centers, custom chips, and now power development—to reduce bottlenecks and improve time-to-capacity. [6]
- Market interpretation: The deal is being read as both bullish (capacity security) and cautionary (AI is so capital‑intensive that even hyperscalers are buying their way into energy infrastructure). [7]
Why it matters for GOOG before the open: A post‑holiday session often brings back institutional liquidity. If investors come in with a “capex discipline” mindset, the Intersect story can get framed as cost escalation. If they come in with an “AI winners secure supply chains” mindset, it can get framed as strategic moats.
The financial engine investors keep coming back to: ads + Cloud, with capex as the tradeoff
Alphabet’s most recent reported quarter (Q3 2025) reinforced the bull case that the company’s AI push is not just narrative—it’s showing up in Cloud growth, while the core ad machine remains resilient.
Highlights from the company and Reuters coverage:
- Q3 2025 revenue: Alphabet reported $102.3B in quarterly revenue (up 16% year over year). [8]
- Cloud: Reuters highlighted Google Cloud revenue of $15.16B, with the segment benefiting from enterprise demand for AI infrastructure and analytics—still a competitive arena against Microsoft and Amazon, but increasingly central to Alphabet’s growth story. [9]
- Backlog signal: Reuters also reported Google Cloud’s backlog of non‑recognized sales contracts rising to $155B, a data point many analysts treat as a demand “pressure gauge” for future Cloud growth (and future capex needs). [10]
- Capex trajectory: Reuters reported Alphabet raised projected 2025 capital spending to $91–$93B, and flagged that 2026 could be even higher—a key reason some investors debate whether the market is underestimating the long-run cost of competing in AI infrastructure. [11]
- Cash flow framing vs peers: Reuters noted Alphabet’s capex was a smaller share of cash from operations than some mega-cap peers in the same period—important context for investors worried about “AI spendouts.” [12]
Bottom line for Dec. 26 positioning: Bulls will argue Alphabet has a rare combination—cash generation from Search/YouTube plus accelerating Cloud—while bears will focus on the possibility that the AI race structurally lifts capex and lowers margin visibility.
The regulatory overhang isn’t gone—it’s just becoming more complex
Alphabet’s 2025 rally happened alongside major legal developments, some relieving and some potentially expensive.
1) U.S. search case: no breakup, but meaningful behavioral remedies—plus a new December ruling
In the long-running U.S. search antitrust saga, Reuters reported earlier that Judge Amit Mehta rejected a forced sale of major assets like Chrome, but required changes such as limits on exclusivity and data sharing. [13]
More recently, a Dec. 5, 2025 ruling (widely reported by legal and business outlets) has been interpreted as further tightening distribution dynamics by limiting default placement contracts to one year, which could force more frequent renegotiations with partners. [14]
What to watch: This doesn’t necessarily “break” Google Search, but it may change the economics and cadence of default distribution deals—and it gives AI-native competitors more shots on goal over time.
2) U.S. ad tech case: illegal monopolies found; remedies decision still ahead
In April 2025, Reuters reported Judge Leonie Brinkema found Google illegally maintained monopolies in key ad tech markets (publisher ad servers and ad exchanges), opening the door to remedies that could include structural changes. [15]
By late November, Reuters reported the remedies phase was active and that appeals could delay forced actions—meaning the “headline risk” can return quickly with any court update. [16]
Why this matters to GOOG now: Ad tech isn’t the same thing as Search ads, but it touches the broader advertising ecosystem. Investors tend to apply a “regulatory discount” when divestiture talk becomes credible.
3) Europe: a major fine already, plus more investigations and potential penalties ahead
Alphabet has also faced escalating EU scrutiny:
- EU adtech fine: Reuters reported in September 2025 that Google was hit with a €2.95B EU antitrust fine tied to adtech practices; the European Commission also published details of the decision. [17]
- DMA compliance risk: Reuters reported in December 2025 that Google could face an additional EU fine in 2026 related to alleged non-compliance with Digital Markets Act rules around favoring its own vertical services in search. [18]
- “Site reputation abuse policy” probe: The European Commission announced an investigation focusing on how Google’s policy impacts publishers—an issue that also intersects with news and content discovery ecosystems. [19]
Net effect: Even after the U.S. “no breakup” relief earlier this year, the regulatory story remains a multi‑front campaign. For traders, that means periodic volatility spikes tied to court calendars, remedies announcements, and EU enforcement steps.
Deal pipeline and product/legal headlines that could move sentiment
Beyond Intersect, several other items remain relevant for how investors model Alphabet’s risk and optionality:
Wiz: Alphabet’s biggest-ever deal and cloud security ambitions
Reuters reported Alphabet’s $32B acquisition of Wiz (announced earlier in 2025) cleared U.S. DOJ antitrust review per comments by the Wiz CEO, with the deal expected to close in 2026 subject to other approvals. [20]
Investor read-through: Wiz reinforces the thesis that Alphabet wants Google Cloud to compete not only on AI compute, but also on security posture—a key buying criterion for enterprise cloud migrations.
Google sues SerpApi: the data-scraping and content control fight
Reuters reported Google filed suit against SerpApi, alleging large-scale scraping and resale of content from Google services. [21]
Why markets care: This is not an earnings catalyst by itself, but it highlights how aggressively Alphabet is defending data access and content economics at a time when AI search, scraping, and training-data disputes are multiplying across the industry.
Google Play compliance moves: fees, external linking, and court oversight
The Verge reported Google outlined plans tied to compliance with court orders around openness, including proposed fees connected to external links and alternative billing frameworks. [22]
Why this matters: App store economics can be margin-relevant at scale, and “compliance plans” often come with follow-up court decisions that create binary headline risk.
Dividend + buybacks: shareholder returns are now part of the GOOG story
Alphabet is no longer a “zero dividend” mega-cap.
- Alphabet initiated its dividend program in 2024 (Reuters covered the first-ever dividend announcement). [23]
- In 2025, Alphabet increased the quarterly dividend by 5% to $0.21, and continued share repurchases under a $70B authorization, according to Alphabet’s investor relations and filings. [24]
- The most recently declared dividend referenced in Q3 materials was $0.21 payable Dec. 15, 2025, meaning the dividend isn’t a near-term “ex-date” catalyst for the Dec. 26 open—but it matters for long-term holder composition. [25]
For GOOG specifically, this supports the “quality compounder” narrative: even with heavy AI investment, Alphabet is returning capital while building capacity.
Wall Street forecasts: targets cluster in the $300s, but bulls see $375–$400+
Analyst targets and research notes have been leaning bullish into year-end, though ranges remain wide.
A few data points that investors frequently cite:
- Aggregators show average targets in the low-to-mid $300s (with meaningful dispersion between low and high targets). [26]
- Some firms have published higher targets tied to AI and Cloud momentum:
How to interpret this before the open: When a stock is already up sharply, upgrades and raised targets often matter less than the reason behind them. Right now the key “reason stack” is:
- AI model progress and monetization confidence
- Google Cloud durability and profitability trajectory
- Whether regulatory remedies stay behavioral (manageable) versus structural (potentially disruptive)
What to watch specifically on the morning of Dec. 26
Because Dec. 26 trading can be influenced by holiday-thin liquidity and year-end positioning, it helps to separate true Alphabet-specific catalysts from broader tape effects.
Alphabet-specific watchlist
- Any new details or commentary on the Intersect deal (financing structure, asset scope, regulatory review, closing timeline). [29]
- Antitrust headlines (especially remedies language, compliance milestones, or appeals signals in the U.S.; DMA enforcement steps in the EU). [30]
- Deal approval chatter on Wiz as it moves through non-U.S. jurisdictions toward a 2026 close. [31]
- Any incremental signals about capex or data-center buildouts, since Reuters has repeatedly tied Alphabet’s AI competitiveness to expanding infrastructure at scale. [32]
Calendar items investors are already modeling
- Next earnings: Nasdaq and other calendars list early February 2026 as the next expected reporting window (often shown as Feb. 3, 2026, after market), though the exact date can be confirmed/updated by the company. [33]
Market structure / “tape” factors
- Re-liquefaction after the holiday: Dec. 24 was an early close and Dec. 25 was closed; flows can look “gappy” when desks return. [34]
- Seasonality chatter: MarketWatch noted Dec. 26 has historically been a strong day for the S&P 500—useful context, but not a thesis by itself. [35]
The bull and bear cases heading into 2026, in plain English
The bullish setup for GOOG
- Cloud is increasingly viewed as a durable growth engine, and Reuters has framed it as a meaningful driver of Alphabet’s AI strategy. [36]
- Alphabet is spending heavily, but it’s also trying to secure critical constraints (chips, networking, and now energy/power) via moves like Intersect. [37]
- Large-deal optionality (Wiz) could strengthen Google Cloud’s security credibility in enterprise buying cycles. [38]
- Shareholder returns (dividend + buybacks) broaden the investor base and can support downside resilience during volatility. [39]
The bearish / risk case
- Remedies risk is real: U.S. adtech remedies could become structurally disruptive, and EU enforcement could add further penalties or constraints. [40]
- AI infrastructure intensity (capex) may stay elevated longer than markets expect, and investors can turn quickly if they think returns on that spend will lag. [41]
- Competitive pressure in AI search and AI assistants remains a strategic threat—even when Google “wins the quarter,” the market still debates long-term search behavior shifts. [42]
Final take for the Dec. 26 open
Alphabet’s Class C shares go into Friday’s reopening session priced like a company the market believes is winning the AI transition—but the next leg will likely be driven less by “AI excitement” and more by execution math: Cloud growth versus capex, and regulatory remedies versus business model resilience.
If you’re watching GOOG pre‑market on Dec. 26, 2025, the clean checklist is:
- Are there any new headlines on Intersect (or broader AI power infrastructure)?
- Any court/regulatory updates that change the probability of structural remedies in adtech or search?
- Any signals on the pace of capex into 2026 and what it means for free cash flow?
- Any incremental news on Wiz approvals and integration planning?
Those are the levers most likely to matter more than ordinary holiday‑week volatility.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
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