Alphabet Inc.’s Class C shares (NASDAQ: GOOG) head into the Christmas week with investors balancing a familiar 2025 tug-of-war: AI-driven growth and “mega-cap momentum” on one side, and regulatory/antitrust uncertainty plus heavy AI infrastructure spending on the other.
GOOG last closed at $308.61 (Friday, Dec. 19, 2025), leaving the stock about 6% below its 52‑week high of $328.67 and far above its 52‑week low of $142.66. [1]
The week ahead (Dec. 22–26) is also holiday-shortened (early close on Christmas Eve, markets closed on Christmas Day), which often means thinner liquidity—a setup where major headlines can punch above their weight. [2]
Below is what matters most for Alphabet’s Class C stock in the coming week—the news flow, the biggest catalysts, and the latest analyst and market positioning as of 21.12.2025.
GOOG vs GOOGL in 30 seconds: why Class C matters (and why price usually doesn’t)
Alphabet trades with two main share classes on Nasdaq:
- GOOGL (Class A): one vote per share
- GOOG (Class C): no voting rights
Economically (dividends, liquidation rights), they’re broadly designed to be equivalent, so GOOG and GOOGL typically track closely—and most Wall Street targets/ratings effectively apply to both. [3]
What’s driving the GOOG narrative right now
1) Google Cloud lands a headline deal: Palo Alto Networks partnership “approaching $10 billion”
One of the most market-relevant Alphabet headlines into this week: Google Cloud and Palo Alto Networks expanded their partnership in what Reuters described as Google Cloud’s largest-ever security services deal, with a value approaching $10B over several years (per a source). [4]
Why this matters for GOOG in the near term:
- It reinforces the idea that Cloud is becoming a larger earnings and multiple driver (not just a long-term “strategic” segment).
- It’s a clean, investor-friendly AI angle: security + AI is where budgets are still moving even in mixed macro conditions.
- It also arrives at a moment when analysts are already using Cloud acceleration as a core reason to lift targets (more on that below). [5]
2) Waymo: funding talks at a $100B+ valuation keep “Other Bets” in the spotlight
Alphabet’s autonomous driving unit, Waymo, is reportedly in talks to raise billions at a valuation at or above $100B (with reporting citing a range that could go higher). [6]
Why it matters this week:
- It keeps the “sum-of-the-parts” conversation alive: Waymo’s valuation is increasingly large enough to influence how investors frame Alphabet beyond Search/YouTube/Cloud.
- It provides a sentiment tailwind in a low-volume holiday week—especially if any follow-up reporting firms up valuation, size, or lead investors. [7]
3) AI infrastructure & TPUs: Alphabet keeps pushing its full-stack story
Alphabet’s AI momentum isn’t only about consumer-facing models; it’s also about AI infrastructure, particularly Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) and Cloud AI services.
Key developments shaping the “week ahead” narrative:
- TorchTPU (open-source): Reuters reported that Google-backed TorchTPU is working with Meta to make it easier to run PyTorch models on TPUs—another sign Alphabet wants TPUs to be more broadly usable outside Google. [8]
- Gemini 3 Flash: Google reportedly released Gemini 3 Flash, positioned as a faster model variant (timing is important because it follows the broader Gemini 3 momentum that helped reset investor perception of Google’s AI competitiveness). [9]
And the financial backdrop is unambiguous: Alphabet is spending heavily to stay ahead.
- In its Q3 2025 results, Alphabet lifted its 2025 CapEx outlook to $91B–$93B, citing growth and Cloud demand. [10]
- On the Q3 2025 earnings call, Alphabet also said it expects a significant increase in CapEx in 2026, with more detail to come on the Q4 call. [11]
For the coming week, this matters less as a scheduled event and more as a valuation debate:
- Bulls see CapEx as the cost of building a defensible AI platform across Search, Cloud, and developer tooling.
- Bears worry about free-cash-flow compression if spending ramps faster than monetization. [12]
4) Antitrust and regulation: still the main “headline risk” for GOOG
Alphabet’s 2025 rally has coexisted with recurring regulatory risk—and that remains true going into Christmas week.
United States (Search):
A federal judge ordered Google to limit default search and AI app contracts to one year, meaning agreements (including device default placement deals) would need to be renegotiated annually rather than locked up longer-term. The ruling is described as part of antitrust relief following a finding that Google illegally monopolized online search markets. [13]
Why it matters for the week ahead:
- You don’t need a new court date for the stock to move—any incremental headlines (appeal posture, remedy details, implementation timelines) can affect sentiment quickly in a low-liquidity week.
- “Default status” is core to Google’s distribution economics, so investors watch remedies closely even when changes are phased in over time. [14]
European Union (AI Overviews content):
The European Commission opened proceedings to investigate whether Alphabet’s use of online content for AI features (including AI Overviews) breaches EU antitrust rules, according to Commission communications and reporting. [15]
Near-term takeaway:
- The process is typically lengthy, but the market often reacts to new procedural steps (information requests, statements of objections, or interim measures).
- In a holiday week, even a single regulatory headline can become the “explanation” for an outsized daily move. [16]
The macro setup for Dec. 22–26: a shortened week, but not a quiet one
Even with Christmas, there are still macro catalysts that can move mega-cap tech—especially anything that shifts rate expectations or growth sentiment.
This week’s calendar (as highlighted by major market previews) includes:
- U.S. Q3 GDP (delayed release)
- Durable goods orders
- Consumer confidence
- Weekly jobless claims (Christmas Eve morning) [17]
And the structure matters:
- Early close Wednesday (Dec. 24) and markets closed Thursday (Dec. 25), with trading resuming Friday (Dec. 26). [18]
For GOOG specifically, this environment tends to amplify:
- Index/ETF flows (Alphabet is widely held in mega-cap and growth benchmarks)
- Options-related pinning near popular strikes
- Headline sensitivity (Cloud/AI wins or regulatory scares can move the tape faster in thin trading)
Analyst forecasts and price targets: where expectations sit as of 21.12.2025
Wall Street has remained broadly constructive on Alphabet into year-end, with targets clustering above current levels.
Consensus snapshot (aggregated)
MarketWatch’s analyst estimate page for GOOG shows:
- Average target: ~$334.69
- Median target: ~$330
- High: ~$432
- Low: ~$268 [19]
Notable recent target moves and bullish framing
Recent headline upgrades/notes have leaned heavily on AI Search engagement and Cloud growth:
- TD Cowen raised its price target to $350 and kept a Buy rating, with reporting tying the call to improving AI Search momentum and Gemini-related engagement signals. [20]
- Pivotal Research lifted its target to a Street-high $400, framing Alphabet as “winning everywhere” across Search, Gemini, YouTube, and AI infrastructure. [21]
- Wedbush raised its target to $350 (from $320) while maintaining an Outperform rating, according to analyst-note coverage. [22]
- BMO raised its target to $343, with commentary emphasizing Cloud growth checks and a constructive Cloud outlook. [23]
What investors should watch in the week ahead:
- When a stock has rallied sharply in 2025, the “bar” becomes guidance and execution, not simply “AI progress.” Bullish targets can help on dips, but they can also raise sensitivity to anything that looks like slowing momentum. [24]
Fundamentals refresher: what Alphabet most recently told investors
Alphabet’s most recent quarterly report (Q3 2025) matters for the coming week because it anchors the market’s expectations going into 2026.
Highlights from Alphabet’s Q3 2025 results include:
- Revenue: $102.3B (up ~16% YoY) [25]
- Google Cloud revenue: $15.2B (up ~34% YoY) and Cloud backlog: $155B [26]
- CapEx outlook raised: $91B–$93B for 2025 [27]
- AI usage signals: Alphabet disclosed very large Gemini usage metrics (tokens processed and Gemini app monthly active users), supporting the “AI adoption is real” narrative that analysts have leaned on. [28]
Earnings timing: Alphabet’s next earnings date is not yet confirmed by the company, but market calendars estimate early February 2026 (often cited around Feb. 3, 2026). [29]
Technical and options positioning: what the market is implying for GOOG
Key levels traders are watching
With a 52‑week range of $142.66 to $328.67, the stock is no longer “cheap momentum”—it’s a large-cap leader that may need fresh catalysts to retest highs. [30]
Some widely-circulated reference points:
- Round-number support near $300 has become psychologically important after recent swings.
- Market commentary and data summaries have cited the stock’s 50‑day moving average near ~$290 and 200‑day near ~$234 (values shift daily, but the takeaway is GOOG remains well above longer-term trend). [31]
Options market: volatility looks relatively subdued
MarketChameleon data around the latest close shows:
- 30‑day implied volatility ~26–27
- IV percentile rank around the mid-teens (suggesting IV is not elevated versus its own history) [32]
Week-ahead interpretation:
- Lower implied volatility can mean options are cheaper, but it can also signal the market expects a range-bound holiday tape unless a major headline breaks.
- In thin trading, however, realized moves can still surprise.
Three scenarios for Alphabet (GOOG) in the coming week
This isn’t investment advice—just a practical way to frame likely paths given the news mix and holiday market structure.
Scenario A: “Cloud + AI wins” dominate headlines (constructive)
What could drive it:
- Follow-through coverage or investor enthusiasm around the Palo Alto Networks security partnership and broader Cloud momentum. [33]
- Additional positive AI infrastructure headlines (TPU adoption, model updates, enterprise wins). [34]
What it might look like:
- GOOG firms toward the mid-$310s to low-$320s, especially if the broader Nasdaq is bid and macro prints are benign.
Scenario B: Holiday range trade (base case)
What could drive it:
- No major incremental regulatory shocks.
- Macro data lands close to expectations.
- Market focuses on year-end positioning rather than fresh fundamental repricing. [35]
What it might look like:
- GOOG chops around recent closes ($300–$315 range) with lower volume and faster reactions to headlines.
Scenario C: Regulation/antitrust headlines hit in thin liquidity (risk-off)
What could drive it:
- New coverage or commentary around the one-year limit on default deals (or related remedy mechanics). [36]
- Fresh EU procedural steps tied to AI Overviews/content usage concerns. [37]
What it might look like:
- A quick downside move (potentially exaggerated by low liquidity), even if the longer-term impact is uncertain.
Bottom line: what to watch for GOOG this week
For the Dec. 22–26, 2025 week ahead, Alphabet Class C stock is set up as a headline-driven mega-cap in a thin market. The most actionable watchlist items are:
- Google Cloud traction: does the market treat the Palo Alto partnership as “proof” of accelerating enterprise momentum? [38]
- Waymo valuation/funding follow-ups: any new specifics can shift the “Other Bets” conversation quickly. [39]
- Antitrust headlines (U.S. default deal constraints; EU AI Overviews/content probe): still the biggest downside headline risk. [40]
- Macro data + holiday trading dynamics: early close, fewer participants, and scheduled U.S. data could amplify moves. [41]
- Analyst expectations remain elevated (targets commonly above spot), which can support dips—but also increases sensitivity to disappointments. [42]
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.investopedia.com, 3. abc.xyz, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.marketwatch.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.theverge.com, 10. s206.q4cdn.com, 11. abc.xyz, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.businessinsider.com, 14. www.businessinsider.com, 15. ec.europa.eu, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.investopedia.com, 18. www.investopedia.com, 19. www.marketwatch.com, 20. www.barrons.com, 21. www.barrons.com, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. s206.q4cdn.com, 26. s206.q4cdn.com, 27. s206.q4cdn.com, 28. s206.q4cdn.com, 29. www.nasdaq.com, 30. www.marketwatch.com, 31. www.marketbeat.com, 32. marketchameleon.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.investopedia.com, 36. www.businessinsider.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.businessinsider.com, 41. www.investopedia.com, 42. www.marketwatch.com
