U.S. markets reopen Friday, Dec. 26, 2025, after the Christmas holiday, following a holiday-shortened week (with an early close on Christmas Eve and a full closure on Christmas Day). [1]
For investors tracking Alphabet Inc. (Google) Class C shares (NASDAQ: GOOG), the setup into Friday’s open is a mix of powerful AI-driven momentum, big-ticket infrastructure spending, and a thickening web of regulatory and legal headlines—several of which have landed in just the last two weeks.
Below is a detailed, news-forward guide to what matters most before the Dec. 26 open, including the latest headlines, consensus forecasts, and key risks.
GOOG pre-market setup: where Alphabet Class C shares left off
Alphabet’s Class C shares (GOOG) last traded around $315.67 in the most recent session (the shortened Dec. 24 trading day), putting the stock within ~1% of its 52‑week high and far above its 52‑week low. The company’s equity value remains massive, with a market cap around $3.8 trillion.
A few quick context points for readers seeing “GOOG” headlines and wondering how they differ from “GOOGL”:
- GOOG (Class C) shares generally carry no voting rights, while GOOGL (Class A) shares have votes (and Class B is held largely by insiders with super-voting power).
- Economically, GOOG and GOOGL typically move nearly in lockstep; the price spread was small in the latest session.
What’s notable heading into Dec. 26 is not just price levels—it’s the stack of catalysts that can influence sentiment quickly: AI product releases, large infrastructure deals, and high-stakes antitrust decisions that may reshape Google’s distribution and advertising economics.
Market calendar: Dec. 26 is a “normal” session after the holiday pause
The U.S. equity market schedule around Christmas matters because liquidity and volatility can change quickly:
- Dec. 24, 2025: Early close (holiday session) [2]
- Dec. 25, 2025: Markets closed for Christmas Day [3]
- Dec. 26, 2025: Not listed as a market holiday on the official calendars—meaning normal trading resumes [4]
This pattern often leads to thinner year-end trading conditions, where large-cap names like Alphabet can still swing on headlines—especially regulatory or AI-related news.
The biggest GOOG headline into Dec. 26: Alphabet’s $4.75B Intersect acquisition
The most market-relevant Alphabet headline in the final week before the Dec. 26 open is Alphabet’s agreement to acquire Intersect, an energy and data-center infrastructure developer, in a deal valued at $4.75 billion in cash plus assumed debt. [5]
Why investors care:
- Alphabet is effectively buying “energy + infrastructure runway” for AI-era compute growth.
- Intersect brings a large development pipeline—reported as $15 billion in assets operational or under construction, with projects expected to generate 10.8 gigawatts by 2028 (a scale comparison used in coverage underscores how large that number is in U.S. power terms). [6]
- The deal is framed as part of a broader hyperscaler scramble to secure power and data center capacity as AI workloads grow. [7]
This is a theme investors keep circling back to: Alphabet’s AI future is not just about models and products—it’s also about power procurement, data centers, and capex discipline.
The AI product catalyst: Gemini 3 Flash is now “real” and shipping across Google’s stack
If the Intersect deal is the infrastructure story, Gemini 3 Flash is the product story.
Google announced Gemini 3 Flash on Dec. 17, 2025, positioning it as a “frontier intelligence built for speed” model. [8]
Google’s own updates also describe Gemini 3 Flash as a major upgrade rolling out broadly in the Gemini app. [9]
From a “GOOG stock before the open” perspective, the market tends to focus on three implications:
1) Distribution: Gemini 3 Flash is being pushed into mainstream surfaces
Coverage and product notes indicate Gemini 3 Flash is rolling into core Google experiences—such as the Gemini app and AI Mode-style experiences—expanding visibility and usage. [10]
2) Monetization: Gemini 3 Flash is available in developer and enterprise channels
Google’s documentation shows Gemini 3 Flash Preview is available on Vertex AI (public preview) with a release date of Dec. 17, 2025. [11]
Google’s Gemini API release notes also reference the launch of gemini-3-flash-preview and highlight new capabilities. [12]
That matters because Wall Street increasingly values Alphabet’s AI not only as “defense” for Search, but as revenue expansion via Cloud, developer tooling, and enterprise adoption.
3) Competitive tempo: the AI arms race is visibly accelerating
Even competitors are explicitly framing Gemini’s progress as a catalyst. Reuters reported OpenAI’s GPT‑5.2 launch followed internal “code red” urgency sparked in part by competitive pressure from Google’s Gemini 3 family. [13]
Investors don’t need to pick a “winner” to understand the market setup: a faster release cadence can lift sentiment—but it also increases execution pressure and capex intensity.
Google Cloud as a near-term “earnings narrative”: a $10B security partnership and a $1B investment
Alphabet’s Cloud narrative received a significant boost from reports of a landmark cybersecurity deal:
- Reuters reported Google is nearing a $10 billion multi-year cybersecurity contract with Palo Alto Networks, paired with a planned $1 billion investment by Google in Palo Alto. [14]
- Palo Alto Networks also announced an expanded strategic partnership with Google Cloud and confirmed the planned investment. [15]
Why this matters for GOOG:
- It positions Google Cloud as a more credible enterprise security platform, a historically sticky budget line in IT spend.
- It’s the kind of deal that can support the “Cloud durability” thesis even if ad growth moderates.
In short: heading into Dec. 26, Alphabet’s Cloud story isn’t only about growth rates—it’s about enterprise penetration and security credibility.
Waymo is still part of the Alphabet optionality story (and it just raised $2.5B)
While “Other Bets” can be volatile and long-dated, Waymo remains the highest-profile optionality inside Alphabet.
Reuters reported Waymo raised $2.5 billion and outlined expansion plans that include launching a driverless ride-hailing service in Miami and Austin, alongside existing operations in places like Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. [16]
For stock watchers, Waymo headlines can matter in two ways:
- They reinforce Alphabet’s narrative as more than “ads + search.”
- They provide periodic sentiment catalysts—especially when fundraising or expansion signals momentum.
That said, Waymo is still widely seen as optional upside, not the near-term earnings engine.
The mega-risk factor that keeps resurfacing: antitrust and regulation
Alphabet’s regulatory story is no longer a background risk—it’s a recurring headline driver. And several updates are fresh enough to influence Dec. 26 sentiment.
1) U.S. search remedies: one-year limit on default search and AI app deals (December ruling)
Bloomberg reported that a federal judge ruled Google must renegotiate default search engine and AI app contracts every year, effectively limiting these default-placement contracts to one year. [17]
Additional coverage echoed the same core takeaway: annual renegotiations could open up default placement opportunities for rivals. [18]
Why investors care:
- Default placement agreements have historically been central to Google’s distribution advantage.
- Even if Google retains many defaults, shorter contract duration can increase bidding pressure and uncertainty around traffic acquisition economics over time.
2) U.S. search case (earlier remedies): data sharing and limits on exclusivity
Earlier in 2025, Reuters reported remedies in the search case that allowed Google to keep Chrome and Android while still imposing requirements including data sharing and curbs on exclusive arrangements. [19]
A Congressional Research Service summary also describes the remedies decision and its context. [20]
3) U.S. ad tech case: DOJ push for divestitures, decision expected next year
Alphabet’s ad-tech antitrust battle is also active:
- Reuters reported the DOJ and states have pushed remedies that could include forcing Google to sell parts of its ad tech stack (including the ad exchange AdX), with the judge expected to rule later. [21]
- The Financial Times noted the judge expressed reluctance about a breakup, highlighting complexity and enforceability concerns—suggesting behavioral remedies could remain in play even as regulators argue for divestiture. [22]
This matters because ad tech is tied to Alphabet’s core cash engine. Even if a final outcome is years away due to appeals, headline risk is immediate.
4) Europe: DMA scrutiny and potential 2026 fine risk
Reuters reported Google is expected to face an EU antitrust fine in 2026 for allegedly falling short of Digital Markets Act compliance related to “self-preferencing” in search results. [23]
Reuters also reported Google proposed additional search-result tweaks in October 2025 as it sought to avoid a DMA-related fine. [24]
Europe matters because remedies can affect product design, ranking formats, and monetization structures—and because fines can be large (DMA penalties can scale meaningfully with global turnover). [25]
5) Android app store reforms: Epic-related injunction pressure continues
Reuters reported the U.S. Supreme Court allowed an order tied to Epic’s litigation to proceed, requiring Google to make Play Store reforms (with key provisions scheduled later). [26]
Capital returns: buybacks remain a key support for GOOG/GOOGL shareholders
Alphabet’s shareholder return story continues to matter for valuation support—especially if the company is spending aggressively on AI infrastructure.
In its filings, Alphabet disclosed:
- In the three and nine months ended Sept. 30, 2025, Alphabet repurchased $11.6 billion and $40.1 billion of Class A and Class C shares, respectively. [27]
- The board authorized $70B in buybacks in April 2024 and another $70B in April 2025; $74.8 billion remained available for repurchases as of Sept. 30, 2025. [28]
- Alphabet also increased its quarterly cash dividend by 5% to $0.21 per share in April 2025. [29]
For GOOG specifically, this matters because buybacks and dividends are economic benefits shared across Class A and Class C—even though governance rights differ.
What Wall Street forecasts look like heading into Dec. 26
“Forecasts” for GOOG generally come in two flavors: (1) price targets, and (2) earnings expectations.
Analyst price targets: modest upside in consensus, wide dispersion in the extremes
Recent compiled analyst target data shows:
- Consensus price target: about $329 (roughly mid-single-digit upside from ~$316)
- Range: roughly $275 to $400
- Recent notable targets include $350 (Truist) and $400 (Pivotal Research), both cited in early December updates. [30]
How to read this into the Dec. 26 open:
- The consensus implies Wall Street sees Alphabet as less “deep value” and more “execution story.”
- The wide high/low spread signals that the market is still debating how to price AI upside vs. regulatory and capex risks.
Next earnings catalyst: early February 2026
Several market calendars estimate Alphabet’s next earnings report around Feb. 3, 2026 (after market close). [31]
On earnings expectations, Zacks’ consensus references an EPS estimate around $2.59 for the coming quarter. [32]
The key takeaway for the Dec. 26 setup: Alphabet is close enough to earnings season that positioning can shift early, especially if macro sentiment around Big Tech or AI capex changes during the first weeks of January.
The “bull case” for GOOG into 2026 (why investors stay interested)
If you’re trying to understand why Alphabet’s stock has remained strong despite rising regulation, the core bullish pillars typically look like this:
- AI distribution + product shipping
Gemini 3 Flash rolling out widely strengthens the narrative that Alphabet can innovate quickly and push AI into high-usage surfaces. [33] - Cloud credibility and enterprise penetration
The Palo Alto partnership and reported multi-year contract size point to deeper enterprise relevance for Google Cloud. [34] - Massive capital return capacity
Large repurchase authorization capacity can cushion volatility, particularly in headline-driven drawdowns. [35] - Infrastructure “de-risking” for compute
Intersect adds a strategic layer: securing power and data center development capacity that AI growth depends on. [36]
The “bear case” (what can break sentiment quickly)
The most important risks into the Dec. 26 open and beyond are not mysterious—they’re just difficult to price.
1) Regulatory outcomes could change profit pools
Search distribution remedies and ad tech remedies carry structural implications. Even if implementation is delayed by appeals, the market can re-rate the stock on perceived long-term margin impact. [37]
2) AI capex and infrastructure spending could pressure free cash flow optics
Alphabet’s AI buildout has been associated with sharply higher expected capex, and the Intersect acquisition reinforces that this is a multi-year investment cycle. [38]
3) AI competition is accelerating (and that can cut both ways)
Faster innovation can expand markets, but it can also compress advantage windows and raise customer acquisition costs, especially in enterprise AI. [39]
4) Year-end positioning risk
Because GOOG is a major index weight and a high-profile AI name, it’s exposed to year-end flows and rebalancing—particularly if investors are taking profits after a strong 2025 run.
What to watch on Dec. 26 specifically
If you’re heading into Friday’s open looking for the highest-signal items, focus on these:
- Deal digestion: Any added detail, analyst commentary, or regulatory color on the Intersect acquisition. [40]
- AI product adoption narrative: Ongoing rollout headlines around Gemini 3 Flash across consumer and enterprise surfaces. [41]
- Regulatory headline risk: New developments in U.S. search remedies, ad tech remedies, or EU DMA enforcement—these stories can move sentiment even without immediate financial changes. [42]
- Cloud enterprise momentum: Follow-through reporting on the Palo Alto partnership and how quickly the market prices it as a Google Cloud “win.” [43]
Bottom line for GOOG before the Dec. 26 open
Alphabet’s Class C stock heads into Dec. 26 trading near highs with momentum supported by AI product releases and enterprise Cloud positioning, while the company doubles down on infrastructure by acquiring Intersect to help secure energy and data center capacity. [44]
At the same time, Alphabet’s regulatory overhang is not fading—it is evolving, with fresh headlines on default-placement contract limits and the ongoing ad tech remedy fight likely to remain a volatility source into 2026. [45]
For the Dec. 26 open specifically: expect a market that’s returning from holiday conditions, where GOOG can trade “headline-to-headline.” The highest-probability drivers are the Intersect acquisition narrative, the Gemini rollout drumbeat, and any incremental antitrust developments.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
References
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