Alphabet stock is waking up a little groggy this morning. In early premarket trading on Thursday, December 11, 2025 (around 5:00–5:30 a.m. ET), Google’s parent company is trading slightly lower after a powerful run in 2025, as broader tech sentiment cools on fresh AI “bubble” worries coming out of Oracle’s earnings. At the same time, Google’s own AI story—especially Gemini and a new Pentagon win—has rarely looked stronger.
Below is a complete look at where Alphabet stock stands right now, what’s moving it in premarket, and how Wall Street is recalibrating its forecasts today.
Premarket Snapshot: Alphabet Slightly Lower but Still Near Records
Class A (GOOGL)
- Wednesday’s close (Dec. 10): about $320.21. [1]
- Premarket today: around $317–318, roughly 0.8–0.9% below yesterday’s close, with early trades near $317.43showing Alphabet A among the more active premarket names. [2]
Class C (GOOG)
- Wednesday’s close (Dec. 10): about $321.00. [3]
- Premarket today: roughly $318–319, down about 0.7–0.9%, with one premarket quote showing $318.74 at 5:30 a.m. ET, a decline of $2.26 (-0.70%) from the prior close. [4]
Despite the small dip, Alphabet is still trading just a few percent below its recent 52‑week high around $328.83, and is up about 67–68% year‑to‑date in 2025, massively outpacing the S&P 500’s roughly mid‑teens gain. [5]
So this isn’t a crash; it’s more like a breather for a stock that’s been sprinting all year.
Why Alphabet Is Down in Premarket: Oracle, AI Bubble Fears, and Risk‑Off Tech
Today’s gentle pullback has less to do with anything Alphabet did overnight and more with macro tech sentiment:
- Oracle earnings spooked AI investors. Oracle reported weaker‑than‑expected revenue and flagged heavy ongoing capital expenditures for AI data centers, sending its shares down around 10–11% in after‑hours and premarket trading. [6]
- That miss revived worries about an “AI bubble”—specifically, the fear that massive infrastructure spending might not translate into profits as quickly as markets hoped. Reuters and others note that Oracle’s results dragged down Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures and hit AI‑linked names globally. [7]
TipRanks’ pre‑open market recap also highlights that U.S. stock futures are lower this morning despite a recent Fed rate cut, pinning much of the weakness on Oracle’s AI‑related disappointment. [8]
Alphabet is deeply tied to the AI theme, so it is getting nudged lower in sympathy with the sector, even though its own fundamentals and AI narrative remain strong.
The Other Side of the Story: Google’s AI Momentum Is Still Surging
While the macro mood around AI is wobbling, Google’s own AI execution is on a tear.
1. Gemini wins the Pentagon
Barchart reports that the U.S. Department of Defense has launched GenAI.mil, a new military‑focused AI platform that runs on Google’s Gemini for Government. Gemini has been chosen as the first enterprise‑scale AI backbone for nearly 3 million military and civilian personnel, making it the core system for unclassified workflows like policy summaries, onboarding, contracting, and risk assessments. [9]
Crucially:
- Google already had a $200 million DoD cloud contract, and this Gemini deployment deepens those ties across the Navy, Air Force and the Defense Innovation Unit. [10]
- The deal is as much about validation as it is about immediate revenue—positioning Gemini as “mission‑critical infrastructure” for one of the world’s most demanding customers.
2. Blow‑out Q3 numbers and a massive AI backlog
Recent analysis of Alphabet’s Q3 2025 results shows just how much AI is already flowing to the bottom line: [11]
- Quarterly revenue hit about $102.3 billion, up 16% year‑over‑year.
- Google Services (Search, YouTube, ads, subscriptions, devices) brought in $87.1 billion, up 14%.
- Google Cloud revenue jumped 34% to $15.2 billion, fueled by AI workloads and digital modernization.
- Operating income reached ~$31.2 billion, with margins around 30–34% depending on how you adjust for EU antitrust fines.
- EPS grew about 35% year over year, comfortably topping analyst expectations.
- Cloud backlog surpassed $155 billion, effectively a giant queue of future AI and cloud revenue.
Management also guided 2025 capital expenditures to $91–93 billion, signaling a multi‑year build‑out of AI data centers, custom hardware (TPUs), and infrastructure. [12]
3. Gemini usage and AI leadership
The same reporting notes that Alphabet’s AI platform is now processing around seven billion tokens per minute, and the Gemini app has reached about 650 million monthly active users, a scale that rivals entire continents. [13]
Separate Dow Jones / MarketWatch coverage described Gemini as dealing “a fresh blow” to ChatGPT and emphasized that Google’s AI momentum is accelerating as it layers Gemini into Search, Workspace, and Cloud. [14]
Another recent Yahoo Finance piece framed Alphabet as a better long‑term AI play than smaller hardware suppliers, precisely because it can monetize AI across search, YouTube, and cloud simultaneously. [15]
4. DeepMind’s new “robotic science lab”
On top of that, Google DeepMind is establishing its first automated “robotic science lab” in the U.K., where AI‑guided robots will run experiments and accelerate scientific discovery in areas like materials and drug research. [16]
While not a short‑term earnings catalyst, the project underscores Alphabet’s ambition to own the cutting edge of AI‑driven science, reinforcing its long‑run innovation moat.
Fresh Analyst Calls This Morning: Targets Up to $400 and Talk of $5 Trillion
Piper Sandler bumps its Alphabet target to $365
Just before the open today, Piper Sandler raised its price target on Alphabet to $365, citing particularly strong advertising survey data and confidence that Google’s ad business can keep compounding even as AI reshapes search and YouTube. [17]
Street‑high target at $400
Barron’s recently highlighted a note from Pivotal Research that lifted its Alphabet price target to a Street‑high $400, roughly 25% above recent trading levels. The analyst describes Alphabet as “winning everywhere,” pointing to: [18]
- Sustained strength in Google Search
- Gemini’s rapid catch‑up (and in some cases outperformance) versus rival chatbots
- YouTube’s dominance as the world’s largest video platform
- Alphabet’s advantage from using its own Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) alongside Nvidia’s chips to bring down AI compute costs.
Consensus still screams “Strong Buy”
Recent analysis of Wall Street coverage shows: [19]
- 54 analysts covering Alphabet
- 43 rate it a “Strong Buy”, 4 a “Moderate Buy” and 7 a “Hold”
- The average price target is about $326–327, a few percent above current levels
- The high end of the target range is $400
A separate TipRanks breakdown focused on one top‑ranked investor who calls Alphabet a “top pick for 2026,” arguing that: [20]
- Google’s search moat remains extremely wide
- AI (including Gemini and AI Overviews) has become a growth driver rather than a threat
- Alphabet’s mix of search, YouTube, Cloud, and emerging hardware (phones, AI devices, autonomous vehicles) gives it multiple monetization levers
- Even after this year’s rally, a P/E in the low‑30s is “still fairly cheap for a growth stock” given its earnings trajectory.
A bold call: $5 trillion market cap by 2028
A new piece syndicated via Finviz from The Motley Fool goes further, arguing that Alphabet could plausibly reach a $5 trillion market cap by 2028. [21]
Key points from that analysis:
- Alphabet is already around $3.8 trillion in market value, so $5 trillion would require roughly 9–10% compound annual growth through the end of 2028—roughly in line with long‑run equity market returns. [22]
- Among the “Magnificent Seven” mega‑caps, Alphabet screens as one of the more reasonably valued on forward P/E and PEG ratios. [23]
- AI is now integrated across Search, Cloud, and YouTube, offering multiple ways to drive both revenue growth and margin expansion.
The author stresses that this is a scenario, not a guarantee—but it’s notable that serious analysts are now talking about Alphabet as a potential second member of the $5 trillion club, after Nvidia. [24]
Valuation Check: Is Alphabet Expensive After a 2025 Moonshot?
Given the rally, it’s fair to ask whether Alphabet is overcooked. Several data‑driven pieces today say “not yet.”
- Simply Wall St’s update this morning puts Alphabet’s current P/E around 31.1x, versus a “fair” multiple of about 37.4x based on its growth profile, and labels the stock “undervalued” on that basis. [25]
- The Barchart analysis of Gemini’s Pentagon deal notes that Alphabet trades around 28x forward earnings, which they argue is reasonable given 30%+ expected EPS growth into 2025 and a very high return on capital. [26]
- A recent Motley Fool piece calling Alphabet “one AI stock that should be on every investor’s holiday list”points out that even after a roughly 67% YTD gain, the valuation still leaves room for attractive returns in 2026 and beyond. [27]
In short: by classic metrics, Alphabet is not cheap—but relative to its AI peers and growth, multiple independent analyses still see it as reasonable to modestly undervalued rather than bubble‑priced.
Big Money Positioning: Some Trimming, Some Buying, Lots of Exposure
Institutional holders are actively rebalancing around Alphabet:
- A new MarketBeat summary notes that D L Carlson Investment Group trimmed its Alphabet stake by about 3%in Q2, but the stock still sits as the firm’s 7th‑largest holding, and large institutions like Norges Bank and Vanguard have substantial positions as well, leaving institutions owning roughly 40% of the company. [28]
- Other filings this week show select wealth managers adding to positions even at these elevated levels, a sign that some professional investors still see a favorable risk‑reward profile.
On the activist/hedge‑fund side, Pershing Square reduced its Alphabet stake by about 10% in a recent quarter, which some analysts interpret as profit‑taking rather than a change in thesis, given the scale of the prior position and the huge run‑up. [29]
Net‑net, institutions remain heavily exposed to Alphabet, but they’re clearly using 2025’s strength to fine‑tune positioning.
Other Google Headlines Today: From AI Glasses to Security Patches
A few more Google‑specific headlines to be aware of this morning:
- AI glasses: Multiple reports highlight Google’s plan to launch its first AI‑powered glasses around 2026, positioning them as a direct challenger to Meta’s smart eyewear. A recent analysis asks whether “Google stock is a buy ahead of its first AI glasses launch,” framing the device as another way for Alphabet to plug Gemini into everyday life. [30]
- Data center power deals: Reuters reported earlier this week that Alphabet and NextEra have signed fresh agreements to accelerate U.S. data‑center build‑outs, including additional renewable power, underscoring how aggressively Google is scaling its AI infrastructure footprint. [31]
- Security: BleepingComputer notes that Google has just patched another actively exploited Chrome zero‑day, the eighth such vulnerability this year, highlighting both the scale of its browser footprint and the ongoing need for security investment. [32]
- AI ecosystem investment: In India, Google and Accel announced a collaboration supporting local AI startups, including funding and cloud support, aiming to seed the next wave of AI‑native companies on Google Cloud. [33]
Individually, none of these is a huge needle‑mover today, but together they reinforce the picture of Alphabet as an AI‑first, infrastructure‑heavy, global platform company.
How Today’s Setup Looks for Traders and Long‑Term Investors
For short‑term traders:
- Alphabet is drifting lower premarket alongside AI peers after Oracle’s disappointing quarter and aggressive capex outlook shook confidence in the near‑term AI profit story. [34]
- The stock is sitting just a few percent below all‑time highs and slightly below the average analyst target in the mid‑$320s; that can act as both resistance overhead and support if dip‑buyers step in.
Key intraday things to watch:
- Whether AI‑linked ETFs and megacaps (Nvidia, Oracle, etc.) stabilize or extend losses
- Any follow‑through headlines on AI regulation, defense contracts, or data‑center spending that might reframe the risk narrative.
For long‑term investors (not advice, just context):
- The core investment thesis around Alphabet’s AI moat looks stronger than it did a year ago: Gemini is scaling quickly, Cloud growth is reaccelerating, and Google is embedding AI deeply into its core revenue engines. [35]
- Multiple independent analyses—from Simply Wall St to Barchart to Motley Fool and TipRanks—argue that, relative to peers, Alphabet still offers a balanced mix of growth, profitability, and valuation. [36]
- New research out this morning even outlines a path to $5 trillion in market cap by 2028 if Alphabet can sustain high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit annual returns, backed by continued AI‑driven earnings growth. [37]
Of course, that upside comes with real risks:
- AI spending could overshoot returns (the Oracle scare is a reminder). [38]
- Regulators are watching big tech closely, especially on antitrust and AI.
- If AI adoption slows, or competitors like Meta, OpenAI, or others gain share faster than expected, Alphabet’s current valuation could compress.
Bottom Line: A Small Premarket Pullback in a Very Big Uptrend
As of early premarket on December 11, 2025, Alphabet stock is:
- Down less than 1% ahead of the open
- Still near record highs after a roughly 67% gain in 2025
- Backed by strong AI and cloud fundamentals, fresh Pentagon and Gemini wins, and a Wall Street consensus that remains overwhelmingly bullish
Today’s action looks less like a judgment on Google’s own performance and more like the market nervously re‑pricing how quickly AI capex turns into profits—a debate Oracle has just thrown gasoline on.
For readers following Google stock today, the key tension is simple:
Can Alphabet keep converting its massive AI investments into faster, more profitable growth—even as investors get more skeptical about the AI trade overall?
That question will likely define not just today’s session, but much of Alphabet’s journey into 2026 and beyond.
(This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.)
References
1. www.barchart.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.barchart.com, 4. public.com, 5. www.barchart.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.tipranks.com, 9. www.barchart.com, 10. www.barchart.com, 11. www.barchart.com, 12. seekingalpha.com, 13. www.barchart.com, 14. www.morningstar.com, 15. finance.yahoo.com, 16. www.theguardian.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.barrons.com, 19. www.barchart.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. finviz.com, 22. finviz.com, 23. finviz.com, 24. finviz.com, 25. simplywall.st, 26. www.barchart.com, 27. finviz.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.gurufocus.com, 30. finance.yahoo.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.bleepingcomputer.com, 33. m.economictimes.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.barchart.com, 36. simplywall.st, 37. finviz.com, 38. www.channelnewsasia.com
