LONDON, March 1, 2026, 12:16 GMT — The session is over; markets have closed.
- OPEC+ has given a preliminary nod to upping output by 206,000 barrels per day, even as Gulf shipments run into disruption.
- Rising navigation risks at Hormuz have tanker and container lines either halting voyages or shifting their routes.
- Monday’s reopening is set to give traders their first unfiltered read on prices since the weekend escalation.
OPEC+ settled on a plan Sunday to boost oil output by 206,000 barrels a day, despite shipping snarls in the Gulf after Iran warned shipowners that the Strait of Hormuz was off limits. With oil markets closed for the weekend, the real question is whether these additional barrels mean much if tankers are stuck.
The Strait of Hormuz—just a narrow strip of water between Iran and Oman—handles roughly a fifth of all the world’s oil, plus hefty LNG volumes moving out of Qatar. Now, with several tanker operators, energy giants and trading firms halting crude, fuel, and LNG traffic, flows are grinding lower. “Our ships will stay put for several days,” a senior trading desk executive said. It isn’t a full standstill yet, but disruption is “building rapidly,” shipbroker Poten & Partners noted. Reuters
Brent crude finished Friday at $72.48 a barrel, gaining $1.73, or 2.45%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) wrapped up at $67.02, up $1.81, or 2.78%. Both contracts had been hovering around multi-month highs ahead of the strikes, setting up traders to recalibrate from a loftier starting point when markets open Monday.
Japan’s major shippers are shifting course. Nippon Yusen told vessels to stop transiting through the area. Mitsui O.S.K. Lines said it’s holding back from the strait, directing ships to stay in safer zones. Kawasaki Kisen, for its part, said there’s no way to reroute cargoes already in the Persian Gulf.
Analysts aren’t mincing words: the initial move could be straight back toward a fatter “war premium” as traders price in extra supply risk. Barclays analysts flagged a scenario where “Brent could hit $100.” Helima Croft, who heads commodities research at RBC Capital, said the scale depends on how far Iran’s Revolutionary Guards go with any escalation, and pointed out OPEC’s limited “shock absorbers”—that is, spare capacity ready to deploy. If the Strait of Hormuz faces a drawn-out disruption, Rystad Energy’s Jorge Leon put the “effective loss” at 8-10 million barrels a day. Reuters
Gas markets are feeling the impact. Israel’s Energy Ministry has temporarily halted operations at sections of its natural gas reservoirs, sources said, affecting the Chevron-run Leviathan field. Energean reported its own production vessel is offline as well.
No reports have surfaced of damage to oil and gas infrastructure from Iran’s retaliatory strikes, yet traders aren’t waiting around — the risk to shipping alone is driving the action. Tanker freight costs are up sharply. Benchmark rates for very large crude carriers sailing from the Middle East to China have more than tripled since the year began, squeezed by both heightened risk and a shrinking pool of willing vessels.
Investors got a taste of jitters in regional markets. Saudi Aramco climbed 2.6% on Sunday as traders bet on pricier oil, while most Gulf stocks slipped and Kuwait’s bourse halted activity. Analysts flagged that shipping hazards around Hormuz may soon overshadow any short-lived boost from stronger crude.
Still, there’s no certainty the price surge will last. Barclays noted late Friday that without a meaningful disruption in supply from the standoff, the $3-$5 a barrel risk premium might unwind rapidly. Yet even a 1 million barrel-per-day shortfall, the bank said, would put pressure on the market’s surplus story.
The next thing to watch is straightforward: Brent and WTI futures trade resumes Monday, and any indication shipowners are ready to restart Gulf sailings will matter. Traders are also looking for specifics on OPEC+ and its output hike—especially if those extra barrels can actually exit the region, given ongoing uncertainty over Hormuz shipping lanes.
