Sao Paulo, April 2, 2026, 19:12 UTC-03:00
Ambev S.A. is seeing a lift in its short-term volume outlook after new data out of Brazil and broker commentary on Thursday suggested beer production picked up in February. Still, analysts flagged rising inventories and cautioned that March output might fall back.
Investors want to see signs Ambev can stabilize its main Brazil operations ahead of first-quarter earnings on May 5. In 2025, total volumes slipped 3.3%, and normalized profit for the fourth quarter fell 8.0%. That’s left the market watching closely to see if early 2026 performance is strong enough to counter ongoing cost and FX headwinds.
Brazil’s beverage production climbed 6.2% year-over-year in February, according to official IBGE figures. XP’s Leonardo Alencar and Pedro Fonseca, in separate notes, pointed out the alcoholic beverages segment jumped 8.9% versus a year ago and grew 1.4% from January. They described Ambev’s volume outlook as “more benign.” Agência de Notícias – IBGE
XP pointed out that sell-in, or shipments to retailers, stayed stronger than sell-out, meaning actual sales to consumers. With that spread, inventories likely stretched to around 60 days—well past the typical 30 to 40 days—hinting at a possible production pullback in March.
Later Thursday, XP released a follow-up note pointing out that Grupo Petropolis—Ambev’s private competitor—logged a 6.2% production decline year-over-year for January and February. That backs up the take that Ambev and Heineken scooped up the bulk of the industry’s recent output bump.
Andre Macedo at IBGE pointed out that a chunk of February’s broad-based industry gains likely came from companies restocking shelves—something echoed in cautious broker commentary. March, then, should provide a clearer picture on real demand: was it actually picking up, or were breweries just loading up distributors?
Ambev continues to push forward with shareholder payouts. The company, in a board filing dated March 30, set a digital annual and extraordinary meeting for April 30. Directors also put forward a plan to allocate R$10.90 billion from 2025 profit for dividends and interest on capital—a Brazilian form of shareholder return—and cleared a R$33.1 million capital hike, tied to recent stock-option exercise activity.
Capital rises to R$58.31 billion after the addition of 2.03 million common shares, bumping the total up to 15.76 billion shares. Dilution works out to roughly 0.013% against the previous tally. The same filing also proposes a 2026 management pay cap at R$162.2 million, with R$2.47 million set aside for the fiscal council.
Even if volumes pick up, that doesn’t guarantee a smooth boost to earnings. In February, Ambev warned that, barring shifts in exchange rates or commodities, its Brazil beer cash COGS per hectoliter could climb anywhere from 4.5% to 7.5% this year. The brewer’s 2026 real-dollar hedge sits at 5.50.
Back in February, the brewer outlined plans for about R$20 billion in returns to shareholders—buybacks, dividends, and interest on capital all included. The first slice, a R$1.2 billion interest-on-capital payout for 2025, lands on April 6. That payout schedule is more predictable right now than any rebound in the beer business.
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