São Paulo, May 28, 2026, 20:06 (BRT)
- Ambev shares in São Paulo traded at 16.29 reais, down from 16.61 reais at the last close. The Ibovespa index slipped 0.39%.
- Goldman Sachs stuck with its sell rating and 12.90-real price target, saying it could be tough for beer makers to pull off the same price increases again.
- BTG Pactual came out with a buy call earlier this week, pushing back against the bears and keeping the focus on pricing power against soft consumer demand.
Ambev S.A. stock slipped Thursday after Goldman Sachs put out a note saying the brewer’s price run might be stalling, raising questions again over how far the shares can go after their strong jump post-earnings.
Ambev shares traded at 16.29 reais on B3, down 1.9% from their last close of 16.61 reais and under the 52-week peak of 17.04 reais. The Ibovespa lost 0.39% to 175,063 points. Ambev’s U.S.-listed ADR was last seen at $3.20, dropping about 2.1% on 35.5 million shares traded.
Ambev’s latest move is in focus because the stock has been busy since its first-quarter numbers. Shares climbed over 15% on May 5 after earnings. Now, the market is weighing if that jump reset expectations or if it was just a quick move following a strong quarter.
Thursday trading ran on B3’s normal schedule, 10:00 to 16:55 São Paulo time. It wasn’t a holiday-shortened day. The next planned closure for the exchange is June 4, Corpus Christi.
Goldman Sachs stuck to its sell call on Ambev, pointing to limited room for new price hikes as beer inflation slows and consumers are under pressure. Its 12.90-real price target sits well below where shares have been trading. Data from Scanntech showed beer volumes fell roughly 5% in April year-on-year, the bank said in its note, citing reports.
Goldman isn’t worried about a soft first quarter. The issue, the bank says, is that some of Ambev’s price gains could be tough to repeat. A lot of the first quarter’s revenue-per-liter boost was from carry-over—price hikes made earlier kept benefiting sales—while just a small part came from fresh price moves in the quarter, according to Goldman.
BTG Pactual took a different stance on Ambev this week, upgrading the stock to buy after years of being on the sidelines. Analysts Thiago Duarte and Guilherme Guttilla raised their target to 20 reais from 17 reais, saying, “Thirteen years later, we’re upgrading Ambev to Buy,” according to Brazil Stock Guide. They pointed to Ambev’s broad portfolio as a key competitive edge and linked the call to what they saw as signs of maturity at Heineken in Brazil. Brazil Stock Guide
Ambev’s first-quarter report let both sides read what they wanted. Volume grew just 0.1% organically. Organic net revenue was up 8.1%. Normalized EBITDA climbed 10.1%. EBITDA stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Ambev’s “normalized” EBITDA cuts out items it doesn’t count as regular operations. Margins improved by 60 basis points to 33.6%.
Ambev CEO Carlos Lisboa said in the release it was “a solid start to 2026.” The company reported operating cash flow up to 3.16 billion reais. Ambev’s board gave the nod to a 1.2 billion-real interest on capital payment set for July, plus another payout of about 700 million reais by December.
On the earnings call, management pointed to both the calendar and their brands. Chief Financial Officer Guilherme Fleury said a World Cup year tends to add about 0.3 to 0.4 percentage point to full-year industry growth, with most of that impact hitting in the second and third quarters. CEO Lisboa called 2026 a “year of socialization”—his phrase highlighted because beer sales in Brazil usually track with get-togethers, holidays and the weather. Investing.com
But there’s a risk investors end up paying for a simpler pricing story just as demand slips. If the soft volume seen in April sticks around, if less beer inflation slows more price hikes, or if Ambev’s Brazil beer cash cost per hectoliter stays pressured by foreign-exchange and commodity costs—a hectoliter is 100 liters—the margin case could unravel fast.
Ambev stock is caught between two narratives at the moment. One report claims the brewer has regained pricing power, able to protect margins with more products. Another warns shoppers might reject more price hikes. On Thursday, the stock saw heavier selling.
