New York, July 10, 2026, 14:10 (EDT)
American Airlines Group Inc. NASDAQ:AAL was down 0.9% to $16.92 Friday afternoon. The key takeaway from the first major U.S. airline report this quarter wasn’t just the impact from fuel. American’s $4-a-gallon fuel estimate seems more on target now, though the carrier still needs to show it can translate higher fares into profits.
American said Thursday it will release its second-quarter results on July 23, with a call set for 7:30 a.m. CT. Delta reports 13 days earlier, setting up an early read for investors on AAL’s key metrics: revenue per seat, fuel, and nonfuel costs.
American’s April forecast put fuel at roughly $4.00 a gallon. Delta Air Lines Inc. NYSE:DAL said its adjusted fuel cost landed at $3.93, just below that, though the companies measure fuel a bit differently. Delta CEO Ed Bastian said it was the airline’s “highest quarterly fuel expense in our history.” Still, revenue streams outside basic tickets brought in 61% of sales. Premium revenue rose 17%, while loyalty revenue gained 19%.
| Second-quarter yardstick | American guidance | Delta reported |
|---|---|---|
| Total revenue growth | 13.5%-16.5% | 14.0% |
| Capacity growth | 4.0%-6.0% | About 1.0% |
| Unit revenue growth | 7.1%-12.0% implied | 12.4% adjusted |
| Fuel price per gallon | About $4.00 assumed | $3.93 adjusted |
| Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) | Loss of $0.20 to profit of $0.20 | Profit of $1.56 |
American’s implied range puts the low estimate of revenue growth with the high end of capacity growth, and the reverse. Capacity means one seat flown one mile. Unit revenue is revenue divided by that capacity. Adjusted numbers leave out items each company sees as outside routine business, so definitions may vary.
American is guiding to about 9.5% unit revenue growth at the midpoint, nearly three points shy of Delta’s 12.4%. The unit revenue gap could impact earnings more than the seven-cent fuel difference.
American said it sees nonfuel unit costs up 2% to 4%. That’s the cost per seat mile, less fuel and one-offs. The numbers imply AAL might need revenue per seat mile close to the high end of its outlook, or lower costs, to clearly top its barely positive EPS forecast.
American slipped Friday afternoon, but was off its lows. Losses were smaller than Delta and United, but all three traded below session highs:
| Company | Price | Day move | Session range | Market value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines Group NASDAQ:AAL | $16.92 | fell 0.9% | traded between $16.53 and $17.60 | $11.2 billion |
| Delta Air Lines NYSE:DAL | $87.90 | dropped 1.2% | moved from $85.40 to $92.52 | $57.7 billion |
| United Airlines Holdings Inc. NASDAQ:UAL | $127.42 | lost 1.3% | ranged $124.44-$133.18 | $41.4 billion |
Prices as of around 13:55 EDT. Market caps are rounded.
TD Cowen analyst Tom Fitzgerald sees Delta’s selloff as a “buying opportunity,” highlighting corporate travel, cargo, loyalty and maintenance as strong points. For American, the comment puts the challenge on expanding its revenue mix. It needs to move past just selling seats and boost higher-margin business. Barron’s
American CEO Robert Isom said in May the company planned to “repeat the profitability we had last year.” He pointed to second-quarter revenue growth near 15% with about 5% higher capacity, giving roughly 10% growth in unit revenue. American has lagged Delta and United on profits for years. Reuters
The real focus for July 23 isn’t just top-line sales. A 15% sales jump driven by 5% more capacity tells a different story than Delta’s 14% rise with only 1% more capacity. Where American lands on fuel costs and nonfuel expenses will decide if its sales gains actually show up for shareholders.
The comparison can go the other way, too. Raymond James analyst Savanthi Syth pointed out Delta’s 2026 guide used an older fuel forward curve, set before the latest U.S.-Iran tensions sent U.S. spot jet fuel to $3.10 a gallon. If travel demand fades after Labor Day or airlines add a lot of fourth-quarter seats, fares could slip, putting American’s aim for a breakeven quarter at risk.
American’s best-case view has unit revenue around Delta’s 12.4%, fuel at $4, and nonfuel costs sticking to guidance. If results end up closer to the 9.5% midpoint with higher costs, AAL will lean harder on stronger fares for the rest of the year, an issue that dragged airline stocks down on Friday.
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