FORT WORTH, Texas, April 23, 2026, 08:11 CDT
- American Airlines slashed its full-year adjusted earnings forecast, now expecting anywhere from a 40-cent-per-share loss to a $1.10 profit. Jet fuel hovering close to $4 a gallon could tack on over $4 billion to the carrier’s 2026 expenses.
- Revenue for the first quarter hit a record $13.91 billion, with the adjusted loss shrinking to 40 cents a share—better than Wall Street had forecast—as traffic picked up and planes flew a bit more full.
- The warning lands on top of mounting pressure across the sector: United trimmed its outlook, Delta scrapped expansion plans, and Southwest opted not to update its full-year target.
American Airlines slashed its 2026 profit outlook Thursday, citing a spike in jet fuel prices that’s set to pile on more than $4 billion in extra expenses this year. That move came even as the airline posted record first-quarter revenue and managed to keep its loss narrower than analysts had feared. The company now projects full-year adjusted earnings in a range from a loss of 40 cents per share up to a $1.10 profit, a sharp pullback from its January estimate of $1.70 to $2.70 per share.
This warning takes on urgency, with the Iran-linked fuel shock landing a blow to airlines before they can adjust fares. Tickets for much of the current quarter went out the door ahead of the spike in costs, so packed flights and steady demand haven’t been enough to shield margins.
American’s March quarter numbers managed to top expectations. Revenue climbed 10.8% to $13.91 billion, even after factoring in a roughly $320 million blow from winter storms. Adjusted loss landed at 40 cents per share—better than the 47-cent loss analysts had penciled in. Traffic ticked up 3.9%, and load factor nudged higher to 81.3%.
Caution had already set in among investors. AAL was trading at $11.50 ahead of the open, slipping 28 cents versus its prior close.
Chief Executive Robert Isom highlighted American’s record first-quarter revenue, saying, “American delivered record revenue in the first quarter, and we’re on track for another record in the second quarter.” Premium cabin sales—the pricier seats—kept beating main cabin performance, according to the company. For the second quarter, American is projecting revenue growth between 13.5% and 16.5%. American Airlines Newsroom
American’s guidance sticks close to the line: for the second quarter, the airline is projecting adjusted earnings per share anywhere from a 20-cent loss to a 20-cent gain. That’s straddling the Street, which had penciled in a 9-cent loss. The company is also working off an assumed fuel price of around $4 a gallon.
American now finds itself in step with the rest of the industry. United trimmed its full-year profit outlook, Delta nixed growth plans for the quarter, and Southwest is keeping its annual guidance on ice as fuel prices swing.
Rhetoric from competitors is getting sharper. United CEO Scott Kirby called out “marginal flights” as uneconomical, and Delta’s Ed Bastian summed up his approach: “not to purchase the fuel in the first place”—in other words, axing less profitable routes, demand or no. Reuters
But the margin for misstep is slim. American finished the quarter carrying $34.7 billion in total debt—yes, that’s the lowest since mid-2015, but still hefty. The company’s guidance counts on offsetting some of the fuel surge with higher fares and additional revenue. Should oil prices remain elevated or fare hikes start to chill demand, the lower end of projections could arrive fast.
American wrapped up March sitting on $10.8 billion in liquidity—a solid buffer. At the moment, it’s fuel prices steering the narrative for U.S. airlines, not demand.
