NEW YORK, March 16, 2026, 09:10 EDT.
American Airlines Group slipped to $10.30 on Monday, off $0.23 from its prior close. Shares trailed Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, and Southwest Airlines, each posting small gains.
Spring travel is ramping up, and now airlines are facing new strain. On Sunday, top U.S. airline CEOs fired off a letter to Congress, flagging that 50,000 Transportation Security Administration officers are already working without pay under the partial government shutdown. The crunch is showing up at airport checkpoints, with staffing stretched thin. All of this is hitting just as airlines brace for 171 million travelers this spring—a 4% rise from last year.
Fuel’s causing fresh headaches. According to Reuters, jet fuel prices have surged much more sharply than crude since the Iran conflict began, pinching airline margins—even for those that hedge fuel or lock in future costs with financial contracts.
Nicolas Owens, an analyst at Morningstar, called the timing tough for U.S. airlines. “We expect March to hit (U.S.) airlines’ profitability due to the unanticipated jump in fuel prices,” he told Reuters earlier this month. Reuters
American takes a bigger hit than most when fuel prices move. According to Reuters, each one-cent uptick in jet fuel per gallon could tack on roughly $50 million to the company’s yearly fuel costs. Morgan Stanley’s Ravi Shanker pointed out U.S. airlines probably won’t hedge fuel, and if higher prices stick around, they’ll look to push those costs onto passengers.
Conditions were already tough before this latest step. Back in January, American projected 2026 adjusted earnings of $1.70 to $2.70 per share and flagged a likely first-quarter loss between 10 cents and 50 cents per share, after a winter storm took a $150 million to $200 million bite out of revenue.
Airfares could go up, though it tends not to happen overnight. United CEO Scott Kirby recently said fare hikes will “probably start quick” as the hit from pricier fuel works its way through the sector. Major U.S. airlines typically pass those costs onto tickets directly rather than tacking on a specific surcharge. AP News
The risk is straightforward: with fuel prices elevated and the shutdown lingering, American’s margin for error looks thin. According to Reuters company data, the airline recorded $111 million in net income against $54.6 billion in revenue for 2025, closing out the year holding $29.0 billion in total debt.
There’s at least a buffer. On Friday, Reuters noted that American raked in $6.2 billion in 2025 from Citi and other partners snapping up its loyalty miles—highlighting just how much more dependable those airline credit card deals have become compared to ticket sales.
Investors just got another short-term milestone: American is on tap to speak at the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference, slated for Tuesday at 8:10 a.m. ET. That appearance puts the spotlight back on management and whether they’re sticking to the January guidance.
