New York, January 11, 2026, 06:23 (EST) — Market closed
- Susquehanna upgraded American Airlines to a more bullish stance late Friday.
- AAL shares ended the week higher as analysts leaned on premium and loyalty revenue themes.
- Jet fuel, U.S. inflation data and the carrier’s late-January results are next in focus.
American Airlines Group Inc (AAL.O) shares will be watched when U.S. trading resumes on Monday after data provider Fintel reported Susquehanna upgraded its view on the carrier to “Positive” from “Neutral” late on Friday. The stock rose 27 cents, or about 1.7%, to close at $15.99. (Nasdaq)
The timing matters because airlines are headed into a tight run of fourth-quarter results, with investors still testing whether operational snarls ease as the FAA and carriers work through air traffic control staffing strains. The FAA said in November it would halve required flight reductions at 40 airports to 3% from 6% as government funding resumed, a move airlines argued would help stabilize schedules. (Reuters)
Susquehanna analyst Christopher N. Stathoulopoulos raised his price target on American to $20 a share from $14, citing what he called a “constructive” setup for select carriers as demand firms and capacity growth stays restrained. In his note, he pointed to premium cabin expansion and loyalty revenue as the big swing factors, and flagged available seat miles — a standard measure of capacity — growing in the low single digits as a baseline that could support pricing. (FreightWaves)
Loyalty is central to that pitch. American and Citigroup agreed to extend and expand their co-branded credit card partnership, with Citi set to become the exclusive issuer of the AAdvantage co-branded card portfolio in the U.S. in 2026, the companies said in a December 2024 announcement. “This expanded partnership will unlock even more value,” American CEO Robert Isom said. (American Airlines Newsroom)
American has also been pushing on product, not just price. The carrier said this month it would roll out free in-flight Wi-Fi for AAdvantage members in partnership with AT&T, stepping into a perk race that Delta and United have used to lock in loyalty customers. “Free high-speed Wi-Fi isn’t just a perk — it’s essential for today’s travelers,” chief customer officer Heather Garboden said. (Reuters)
Costs are the other half of the trade. The Argus U.S. jet fuel index stood at $2.09 per gallon on Jan. 9, Airlines for America data showed, and traders often treat fuel as the quickest read-through to quarterly margin risk for airlines. (Airlines For America)
Wall Street has been quick to re-price airlines on analyst calls as earnings season nears. Southwest Airlines, another big U.S. carrier, drew a rare double upgrade at J.P. Morgan this week, a reminder that sentiment can shift fast in the group when 2026 outlooks come into view. (Barron’s)
But the bull case for American still leans on a clean demand picture and tame fuel. A sharper drop in U.S. travel spending, renewed FAA constraints, or a run-up in jet fuel could pinch cash flow and keep debt worries front and center.
Macro data could set the tone before airlines start posting numbers. The U.S. Consumer Price Index for December is due on Tuesday, January 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET, according to the Labor Department’s release schedule. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Rates matter for airlines with heavy balance sheets, and policy expectations can swing on that inflation print. The Federal Reserve’s next meeting runs January 27-28, the central bank’s calendar showed. (Federal Reserve)
For AAL stock, the next company catalyst is its quarterly report, which Nasdaq’s earnings calendar shows as estimated for January 22. Traders will be looking for unit revenue — revenue per seat-mile — capacity plans and non-fuel costs per seat-mile for the clearest signal on whether American can narrow its margin gap with bigger peers. (Nasdaq)
