American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) is trading near recent highs as investors weigh a fresh analyst update, a new credit performance snapshot, and a fast-evolving debate over how merchants may charge customers for premium credit cards.
As of 19:52 UTC on Dec. 16, 2025, AXP stock was at about $380.10, down roughly 0.65% on the day, after trading between $378.88 and $384.53.
Below is what’s driving the conversation around American Express stock right now—plus the latest forecasts, price targets, and the key catalysts investors are watching into early 2026.
What’s moving American Express stock on Dec. 16, 2025
1) CEO pushes back on the idea of more surcharges for AmEx cards
A major headline today came from the payments-policy front: American Express CEO Steve Squeri criticized the prospect of higher surcharges on AmEx transactions, calling it a negative customer experience and emphasizing that AmEx cardmembers should not be discriminated against. The comments were made in the context of a broader, high-stakes settlement debate involving competing networks and merchants. [1]
Squeri spoke at an investor conference and addressed how changes elsewhere in the industry could pressure networks—including AmEx—to revisit long-standing rules about how merchants accept card products. [2]
Why this matters for AXP stock: American Express operates a premium, rewards-heavy model. Anything that changes how merchants pass along card acceptance costs (or how consumers perceive those costs at checkout) can influence spending behavior, cardmember value propositions, and ultimately revenue growth assumptions.
2) Visa/Mastercard settlement ripple effects are back in focus
The surcharge debate isn’t happening in a vacuum. A proposed class-action settlement involving Visa and Mastercard has triggered renewed scrutiny from merchants and trade groups, including large retailers, who have urged a federal judge to reject the deal. [3]
Earlier coverage of the settlement described key elements such as temporary fee reductions and expanded flexibility around surcharging—including language around merchants’ ability to surcharge up to certain levels—while also addressing the long-contested “honor all cards” framework. [4]
American Express is not a party to that litigation, but industry analysts have argued that shifts in merchant behavior and consumer expectations can still create competitive pressure across networks. Payments Dive reported that Squeri acknowledged the settlement could create pressure for AmEx to rethink its own approach. [5]
American Express credit performance: the newest snapshot (filed Dec. 15)
American Express disclosed updated delinquency and write-off metrics in a Form 8‑K dated Dec. 15, 2025, covering U.S. Consumer and U.S. Small Business Card Member loans held for investment for the months ended Nov. 30, Oct. 31, and Sept. 30, 2025. [6]
Key figures from the filing:
- U.S. Consumer Card Member loans (held for investment)
- U.S. Small Business Card Member loans (held for investment)
- Total U.S. Consumer + U.S. Small Business Card Member loans held for investment: $129.1B (Nov) [13]
The same 8‑K also included selected credit performance figures for the American Express Credit Account Master Trust (Lending Trust), such as an annualized default rate (net of recoveries) of 1.2% for Nov. 2025 and ending total principal balance of $25.7B. [14]
How investors typically read this:
- Stable delinquency rates can support the narrative of resilient customer credit quality.
- Rising or falling write-offs feed directly into expectations for credit loss provisioning and earnings sensitivity in a changing consumer environment.
Analyst update: Morgan Stanley raises AXP price target to $370
One of the most market-relevant analyst notes dated Dec. 16, 2025: Morgan Stanley raised its price target on American Express to $370 from $362 and maintained an Equal Weight rating. [15]
According to the note, factors cited as supportive into 2026 included:
- lower delinquencies (as a driver of lower defaults),
- reacceleration in loan growth, and
- increased capital return. [16]
What that signals for AXP stock: Even with a neutral-ish rating (Equal Weight), a higher target price often reflects improved confidence in forward fundamentals—especially around credit normalization and consumer finance group dynamics.
American Express demand indicators: holiday spending data stayed strong
A recent data point investors have been leaning on: at a Goldman Sachs conference, Squeri said U.S. retail consumer spending on AmEx’s network rose 9% around the Thanksgiving holiday week, with Platinum retail spending up 13% over the same period. [17]
That matters because American Express’ model is heavily tied to cardmember spend and premium engagement. In environments where the broader consumer is mixed, AmEx bulls often point to its affluent base as a stabilizer—especially for travel and discretionary categories.
The fundamentals backdrop: guidance and what’s next
American Express previously raised its 2025 guidance after third-quarter results. Reuters reported the company expected:
- 2025 revenue growth of 9% to 10%, and
- 2025 EPS of $15.20 to $15.50. [18]
On the earnings front, third-party earnings calendars widely peg the next report in late January. For example, TipRanks lists Jan. 23, 2026 (after close) and shows a consensus EPS forecast of 3.56 for Q4 2025 (noting that earnings dates can be updated). [19]
Separately, the AP’s coverage of the Q3 report highlighted:
- a 16% jump in third-quarter profit and EPS of $4.14, and
- the competitive premium-card environment, including the Platinum card refresh and higher annual fee. [20]
AXP forecasts and consensus price targets: where Wall Street stands
Price targets vary by dataset and update cadence, but several widely-circulated consensus snapshots now show the stock trading at or above many average targets after the 2025 run.
- MarketScreener’s consensus panel lists a mean consensus of “OUTPERFORM”, with 29 analysts, an average target price of $355.16, and a last close price of $382.57, implying downside versus the close used in that snapshot. [21]
- MarketBeat’s compilation (25 analysts) shows an average 12‑month price target of $333.05, with a stated downside versus its referenced price, and a target range from $255 to $400. [22]
How to interpret the gap:
When AXP trades above many consensus targets, it doesn’t automatically mean the stock “must fall.” More often it means expectations have shifted faster than analyst models—and the next catalyst (earnings, guidance, macro data, regulation) must justify the higher price through stronger fundamentals or a higher valuation multiple.
The key risk investors are watching: merchant pricing power vs. premium rewards
American Express’ premium positioning is both its moat and its sensitivity.
Payments Dive noted that AmEx generally charges higher interchange than peers and cited Bankrate data showing American Express swipe fees averaging roughly 1.43% to 3.3%, versus Visa/Mastercard averages cited at 1.15% to 2.6%. [23]
If merchants surcharge more aggressively—especially on premium cards—the fear is that consumers could:
- shift spend to other payment methods,
- become more price-sensitive at the point of sale, or
- view premium rewards as less valuable if surcharges “claw back” the benefit.
Squeri’s comments are notable because they frame surcharging not just as a merchant vs. network issue, but as a customer experience issue—central to the AmEx brand. [24]
What to watch next for American Express stock
Here are the next likely catalysts for AXP stock as of Dec. 16, 2025:
- Legal and regulatory developments around card fees and “honor all cards” rules
Continued objections and court action around the Visa/Mastercard settlement could keep the broader payments fee debate in headlines—and potentially influence merchant behavior more broadly. [25] - Monthly credit performance prints
Investors will watch whether the stable delinquency pattern holds and whether write-off rates trend up, down, or flat from the November levels disclosed this week. [26] - Any signals on capital return and 2026 setup
Morgan Stanley explicitly flagged capital return as part of its constructive 2026 fundamental view—so buyback/dividend commentary around earnings could matter. [27] - Q4 earnings and 2026 guidance
With AXP trading near highs, the bar is typically higher: investors will likely focus on revenue growth durability, spending trends into the holiday season, credit normalization, and whether guidance supports the current valuation. [28]
Bottom line for AXP on Dec. 16, 2025
American Express stock is being supported by a narrative of resilient premium spending and contained credit performance, while investors digest new policy headlines about surcharging and fresh analyst target updates. The next major test will likely be whether upcoming results and guidance can validate the stock’s near-high pricing—or whether sentiment cools if regulatory and merchant-fee pressures rise.
References
1. www.paymentsdive.com, 2. www.paymentsdive.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.paymentsdive.com, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. www.sec.gov, 14. www.sec.gov, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. www.tipranks.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.tipranks.com, 20. apnews.com, 21. www.marketscreener.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.paymentsdive.com, 24. www.paymentsdive.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.sec.gov, 27. www.tipranks.com, 28. www.tipranks.com
