American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) heads into the Dec. 26, 2025 trading session with momentum—and with valuation questions close behind it.
The stock last closed at $383.11 on Wednesday, Dec. 24, after a holiday-shortened session (NYSE early close on Dec. 24 for equities). That puts AXP within striking distance of its recent highs going into the first full trading day after Christmas. [1]
Below is what investors should know before the opening bell, including the latest company updates, analyst price-target moves, and the key catalysts that could shape AXP’s next leg up—or a near-term pullback.
AXP stock price check: where shares stand heading into Dec. 26
American Express shares finished Dec. 24 at $383.11 after trading between roughly $380.74 and $384.73 on the day, with volume notably lighter than normal—consistent with the shortened Christmas Eve session. [2]
A few context points that matter for a pre-open read:
- Near the highs: Earlier this week, AXP was described as sitting just below a 52-week high of $387.49 (reached Dec. 12). [3]
- Strong 2025 run: AXP has posted a ~29% gain year-to-date (as of the Dec. 24 close in widely followed market data summaries). [4]
- Holiday week trading dynamics: Thin liquidity can amplify moves in either direction—especially in large-cap financials where year-end positioning may be active.
The freshest company headlines: dividend, earnings date, and credit metrics
1) American Express declared a new quarterly dividend (and the dates matter)
American Express’ board declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.82 per share, payable Feb. 10, 2026, to shareholders of record on Jan. 2, 2026. [5]
What it implies at current prices: annualizing $0.82 (about $3.28/year) puts the yield just under 1% at a ~$383 share price—so the dividend is meaningful, but AXP remains more of a growth-and-capital-return story than a high-yield income stock. [6]
2) Earnings are officially on the calendar: Jan. 30, 2026 (before market open)
AmEx announced its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings conference call is set for Friday, Jan. 30, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET. [7]
That date becomes the next major catalyst—and it’s close enough that many analyst notes and trading desks will start “setting” expectations in the days ahead.
3) AXP’s latest credit snapshot: delinquencies steady, write-offs slightly mixed
In a Dec. 15 SEC filing (Form 8‑K), American Express reported delinquency and net write-off statistics for U.S. Consumer and U.S. Small Business Card Member loans held for investment. Highlights:
- U.S. Consumer loans:30 days past due = 1.4% (Sept–Nov), net write-off rate (principal only) = 2.1% in Nov (vs. 2.2% in Oct, 1.9% in Sept)
- U.S. Small Business loans:30 days past due = 1.6% (Sept–Nov), net write-off rate (principal only) = 2.7% in Nov (vs. 2.6% in Oct, 2.5% in Sept)
- Total U.S. consumer + small business card member loans held for investment: $129.1B at Nov. 30 [8]
Takeaway for Dec. 26: the data supports the narrative that AmEx’s credit is stable, even as the broader consumer credit backdrop remains a headline risk across the industry.
The spending narrative: affluent resilience is still the bull case backbone
A major reason AXP has held leadership within payments/consumer finance is its positioning with higher-income card members and premium products.
Two recent data points reinforced that theme:
- Thanksgiving week spend: CEO Stephen Squeri said U.S. retail consumer spending on AmEx’s network rose 9% over the Thanksgiving holiday week, with Platinum cardholders up 13% in retail spending. [9]
- Guidance lift earlier in Q4 setup: After Q3 results, the company raised its FY2025 revenue growth outlook to 9%–10% and EPS to $15.20–$15.50. [10]
This “affluent customer resilience + travel/experiences bias” has been central to why the market has been willing to pay a premium multiple for AXP versus many consumer lenders.
Product strategy update: Platinum refresh and a higher annual fee
In September, AmEx announced upgrades to its U.S. Platinum cards, saying the refresh adds more than $3,500 in annual value/perks, while increasing the annual fee from $695 to $895. [11]
Why this matters for investors heading into earnings season:
- Potential upside: Higher annual fees and stronger engagement can lift fee revenue and strengthen retention among premium card members.
- The tradeoff: Richer benefits can raise customer engagement costs, marketing, and partner economics—pressuring expense lines if not offset by higher spend, fees, and lifetime value.
That expense-side tension shows up directly in recent analyst commentary (more on that below).
Analyst forecasts and price targets: upgrades are coming in, but the bar is higher now
AXP’s rally into late December means investors can’t just ask “Is AmEx strong?” The market already believes it is. The forward-looking question is whether 2026 expectations still have room to rise.
Recent notable price-target moves
- Wells Fargo raised its AXP price target to $425 from $400 and maintained an Overweight rating (Dec. 17). [12]
- Truist raised its price target to $420 from $395 and maintained a Buy rating (Dec. 22). Truist cited a bigger step-up in variable customer engagement expenses than originally budgeted, offset by operating leverage in other expense areas. [13]
What “consensus” looks like across aggregators
Multiple widely tracked summaries show the average one-year price target in the mid-$350s to high-$360s, even as the highest targets have moved into the low-$400s. For example, Nasdaq-hosted analyst target summaries have cited averages around $357–$369 in December. [14]
Why that matters on Dec. 26: with AXP around $383, the stock is already above many published average targets, implying the next catalyst likely needs to be estimate revisions upward (not just “good but expected” results).
What to watch most into the Jan. 30 earnings report
AXP’s earnings date is set, and the market is already framing the quarter around a few key variables:
1) Billed business and spend growth
AmEx tends to trade on whether billed business and card member spending growth show durable strength—especially travel and entertainment categories.
2) Fee growth and premium product economics
The Platinum refresh can be a long-run tailwind, but investors will listen for:
- early indicators of fee revenue strength
- retention/renewal behavior and new acquisition
- whether richer benefits are pushing costs faster than expected [15]
3) Credit costs and loss normalization
The latest SEC update showed steady delinquency rates and manageable write-offs in late 2025. Any sign of a turn—especially if it spreads beyond lower-income segments into the prime/affluent cohort—would matter. [16]
4) Expense discipline and operating leverage
Truist’s note is a reminder that even premium networks can see cost creep when they “buy” engagement through credits and benefits. The market will be watching whether AmEx can keep scaling revenue faster than costs. [17]
5) Guidance credibility
After raising FY2025 guidance following Q3, investors will want to know what that implies for 2026 confidence—and whether management frames demand as stable despite macro noise. [18]
Valuation: why a great business can still be a tricky trade at the highs
Using AmEx’s updated FY2025 EPS guidance of $15.20–$15.50, a $383 share price implies a valuation of roughly ~25x earnings using the midpoint as a simple reference point.
That’s not inherently “wrong” for a premium franchise—but it does mean:
- execution needs to stay clean,
- spending trends need to remain resilient, and
- any macro shock that pressures high-end travel/experiences could re-rate the multiple quickly. [19]
Some valuation-oriented analyses have also argued the stock may be priced ahead of intrinsic value estimates—another signal that “good news” may already be partially reflected in the current quote. [20]
A Dec. 26 trading note: post-Christmas seasonality and thin liquidity
Seasonality is not a strategy by itself—but it can shape short-term trading narratives. MarketWatch cited research that Dec. 26 has historically been one of the most reliably positive trading days for the S&P 500 when markets are open, tied to the “Santa Claus rally” window. [21]
For AXP, that could mean:
- a supportive tape if the broader market opens firm, but also
- exaggerated intraday swings if liquidity is thin and large orders hit the market.
Bottom line for Dec. 26: the checklist investors should run before the bell
Before the market opens on Friday, Dec. 26, 2025, the most practical “AXP stock” checklist looks like this:
- Price vs. expectations: AXP is near highs and above many average price-target summaries—so upside may depend on new upward estimate revisions, not just “solid results.” [22]
- Catalyst calendar: Next major event is Jan. 30, 2026 earnings (before market open). [23]
- Income/capital returns: Dividend is set at $0.82 (payable Feb. 10, record date Jan. 2). [24]
- Credit pulse: Delinquencies were steady into November, per AmEx’s latest SEC filing. [25]
- Narrative driver: premium customer spending has held up in key checkpoints like Thanksgiving week. [26]
- Product economics: Platinum refresh is a long-term brand and fee tailwind, but expenses and benefit costs will be scrutinized. [27]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Stock prices can move quickly—especially in holiday trading conditions.
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. finance.yahoo.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. www.marketscreener.com, 5. www.nasdaq.com, 6. finance.yahoo.com, 7. ir.americanexpress.com, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. www.tipranks.com, 14. www.nasdaq.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.sec.gov, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. simplywall.st, 21. www.marketwatch.com, 22. finance.yahoo.com, 23. ir.americanexpress.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. www.sec.gov, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com
