New York, March 11, 2026, 05:26 EDT.
Front-month Henry Hub natural gas futures traded at $3.041 per million British thermal units early Wednesday, according to CME data, showing a 0.7% uptick after falling 3.2% to roughly $3.02 on Tuesday.
The rebound has some weight here, after the U.S. Energy Information Administration trimmed its 2026 Henry Hub outlook to about $3.80 per mmBtu on Tuesday—13% under last month’s estimate—citing an unexpectedly mild February that kept gas inventories elevated. The agency noted limited impact to U.S. prices from disruptions to LNG traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, pointing to American export facilities already operating near capacity. Completion of Corpus Christi Stage 3 Train 5 was highlighted, and Golden Pass Train 1 is expected online this month.
Natural gas remains key. The EIA projects it will supply 40% of U.S. electricity in 2026 as demand rises. Henry Hub sets the market rate, priced in dollars per mmBtu—million British thermal units—the benchmark for gas trades.
Lower 48 dry gas output landed around 112.3 billion cubic feet per day Tuesday, according to BloombergNEF figures cited by Bloomberg. LNG export plant flows sat close to 19.7 bcfd. Gas demand, though, slipped 6.7% year-on-year. With robust production, strong export activity, and demand easing, the contract’s attempts to rally keep stalling out.
The global picture’s gotten tighter. Last week, Reuters said Qatar’s outage sidelined about 20% of the world’s LNG supply, yet U.S. gas prices didn’t climb in step with Europe. The reason: U.S. exports were already maxed out. Dutch TTF hovered close to $18 per mmBtu, while Asia’s JKM benchmark traded around $15.
The gap still gives U.S. shippers an edge over foreign competitors. Based on LSEG figures crunched by Reuters, U.S. gas costs are tracking around $3.63 per mmBtu for 2026. At today’s forward rates, that’s enough for exporters to lock in profit margins topping 200% on deliveries to Europe or Asia.
But here’s the rub. Eli Rubin, senior energy analyst at EBW Analytics Group, warned Tuesday that “the probable decoupling of oil and natural gas” could serve as “a likely bearish catalyst” heading into spring. That red flag got more pronounced after oil plunged over 11% Tuesday—markets were betting the Middle East conflict might ease. Bloomberg.com
The weather forecast isn’t locked in yet. NOAA on Tuesday put out its newest six-to-10 day outlook, calling for cooler-than-average temperatures across much of the eastern U.S. from March 16-20. Out west and over the Great Plains, the bias flips warmer. All eyes now turn to Thursday’s EIA storage report, which could be the tipping point for Henry Hub’s hold above $3.
U.S. gas prices are caught in a tug-of-war: tepid domestic appetite pulling down, exports lending a hand. Climbing above $3 sparks talk, but the debate stays unresolved.
