Updated: December 4, 2025
Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) has quietly turned into one of 2025’s standout large‑cap healthcare winners. The biotech heavyweight is trading just below fresh 52‑week highs, powered by a clean sweep of earnings beats, a deepening obesity‑drug story around its MariTide program, and full FDA approval for its lung‑cancer therapy Imdelltra. At the same time, investors are grappling with tax and patent overhangs, looming drug price pressure and an increasingly crowded obesity market.
Here’s a deep, Google‑News‑friendly dive into the latest Amgen stock news, forecasts and analysis as of December 4, 2025.
Amgen stock today: price, performance and valuation
- Live price: Around $343 per share in Thursday trading, down slightly from Wednesday’s close but still near record territory. [1]
- 52‑week range: Roughly $253 (low) to about $346 (high). [2]
- 1‑year and YTD performance: Amgen is up about 25–26% over the past year and roughly 34% year‑to‑date, meaningfully ahead of the broader market. [3]
- Market cap: About $185 billion, placing Amgen firmly in the global large‑cap pharma/biotech tier. [4]
On valuation:
- Amgen trades at roughly 26–27x trailing earnings and around 16x forward consensus EPS, a premium to its own five‑year average but not extreme relative to other large pharma names. [5]
- Trefis points out that Amgen’s price‑to‑sales (~4.2x) and price‑to‑free‑cash‑flow (~13x) multiples sit only modestly above the S&P 500 averages, while margins and cash generation are stronger than the index overall. [6]
- Beta is around 0.45, underscoring Amgen’s profile as a low‑volatility defensive growth stock. [7]
From a pure price‑action standpoint, multiple services flag AMGN as technically extended/overbought after a powerful 2025 rally, with shares well above their 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages. TS2 Tech+1
What’s new on December 4, 2025? Fresh analysis and flows
Several new pieces of research and data hit today or in the last 24–48 hours:
1. Trefis: “Amgen Stock To $450?”
Trefis published a December 4 note arguing that $450 per share “may not be out of reach” for AMGN, rating the stock Attractive on the back of: [8]
- Moderate valuation vs the broader market
- Strong growth, with revenue up about 11% over the last 12 months and 12.4% year‑on‑year in the most recent quarter
- Robust profitability, with roughly 24% operating margins and about 19–20% net margins
- Healthy free cash flow, around $13 billion over the last year
- A long track record of resilience in prior downturns (COVID, the 2008 crisis, the 2022 inflation shock)
Trefis’ framework effectively sits near the top of the current bullish range of price targets.
2. New institutional flow data and ownership
Two new filings‑driven stories landed today:
- EverSource Wealth Advisors cut its Amgen position by about 27.8% in Q2, selling ~8,500 shares and ending the quarter with just over 22,000 shares (~$6.2 million position). [9]
- A separate MarketBeat update highlights that large asset managers including Vanguard, Geode and Charles Schwab all increased their stakes, and that roughly 76.5% of Amgen’s float is now owned by institutions, while insiders own under 1% and have sold about 10,900 shares over the last 90 days. [10]
Quiver Quantitative’s latest data similarly shows a tug‑of‑war: more than 1,200 institutions added AMGN in their latest quarter, while roughly 1,400 trimmed positions—but many of the biggest moves (UBS AM, Capital World, Charles Schwab IM) were net buyers. [11]
3. Short‑term technical forecast: StockInvest.us
Technical‑analysis site StockInvest.us updated its short‑term AI model on December 3 and still labels AMGN a “Buy candidate”: [12]
- It notes the stock sits in the upper part of a strong rising trend, with buy signals from both short‑ and long‑term moving averages.
- Their model projects that, over the next three months, Amgen could reasonably trade in the low‑$400s range (roughly $404–$442), implying mid‑20s percentage upside from recent levels, though they also flag sell signals from MACD and a recent pivot top as warning signs.
This is purely technical and assumes the uptrend remains intact; it does not incorporate any fundamentally bad surprise from obesity data or policy shocks.
4. Fresh tax‑risk spotlight: AInvest
An AI‑generated but human‑edited piece at AInvest today refocuses attention on Amgen’s long‑running $10.7 billion tax dispute with the IRS, which has evolved into a shareholder class‑action lawsuit. [13]
Key points from that article (drawing on earlier Reuters, BioSpace and legal commentary):
- A federal judge previously rejected Amgen’s motion to dismiss, allowing claims that the company under‑disclosed the scale of its tax exposure to proceed as a class action.
- The dispute covers tax years 2010–2018 and centers on transfer‑pricing practices and how clearly those risks were communicated to investors.
- The article frames the case as a material governance and transparency risk, with potential for significant damages on top of any tax settlement.
Nothing about the underlying dispute is new today—but the fresh commentary is a reminder that tax litigation remains a non‑trivial overhang on Amgen’s long‑term cash flows.
5. Simply Wall St: Earnings beat and pipeline narrative (Dec 4)
A new Simply Wall St piece published today argues that Amgen’s late‑November Q3 beat and raised guidance have helped shift the stock’s earnings narrative: [14]
- It highlights very strong volume‑driven growth from cholesterol drug Repatha, bone drug Prolia, and a slate of rare‑disease assets.
- The article emphasizes recent pipeline updates for obesity candidate MariTide and lung‑cancer drug Imdelltra as potential next‑generation growth engines.
- The core thesis: to own Amgen, investors must believe that its mature franchises can fund a transition into newer obesity, oncology and cardiovascular growth platforms while withstanding pricing and biosimilar pressure on aging drugs.
Earnings and guidance: a beat‑and‑raise 2025 story
Amgen’s 2025 has been fundamentally strong across all three reported quarters so far:
Q3 2025: double‑digit growth across the board
In its Q3 2025 release (November 4), Amgen reported: [15]
- Total revenue:$9.6 billion, up 12% year‑over‑year
- Product sales: +12%, driven entirely by 14% volume growth (pricing was a net drag)
- Non‑GAAP EPS:$5.64, up slightly and comfortably ahead of consensus (~$5.0)
- GAAP EPS:$5.93, up 14% YoY despite a $400 million impairment charge on Otezla
- Free cash flow:$4.2 billion in the quarter, up from $3.3 billion a year earlier
Sixteen products delivered at least double‑digit sales growth. Stand‑outs included: [16]
- Repatha (cholesterol): +40% YoY to ~$794m
- Evenity (osteoporosis): +36% YoY to ~$541m
- Tepezza & Krystexxa (rare diseases acquired via Horizon): both growing, though off a low base
- Tezspire (severe asthma): +40% YoY
- Blincyto, Tavneos and Uplizna: strong double‑digit growth in oncology and rare‑disease niches
At the same time, older workhorse Enbrel saw sales drop 30%, mostly due to lower net pricing impacted by the U.S. Medicare Part D redesign and 340B mix—a clear sign of the pricing headwinds Amgen is working to offset. [17]
Raised 2025 outlook
Following Q3, Amgen again raised full‑year 2025 guidance: [18]
- Revenue: now $35.8–$36.6 billion (up from $35–36 billion earlier in the year)
- Non‑GAAP EPS:$20.60–$21.40 (up from $20.20–$21.30)
Analysts on average are modeling ~$21.0 EPS and ~$35.7 billion in revenue for 2025, basically aligned with the upper half of management’s range. [19]
Earlier quarters showed a similar pattern:
- Q1 2025: 24% profit increase, double‑digit product sales growth across 14 brands, and a strong launch of Imdelltra, which generated $81m and demonstrated survival benefits vs chemotherapy. [20]
- Q2 2025: Adjusted EPS $6.02 vs. ~$5.3 expected; revenue ~$9.2 billion; guidance nudged higher; but investors focused heavily on upcoming obesity data and early signs of pressure on Prolia and Enbrel. [21]
Net‑net, Amgen is executing on earnings, and 2025 is shaping up as a classic “beat‑and‑raise” year.
Obesity drug MariTide: the potential game‑changer
The biggest swing factor in the Amgen investment story is the company’s obesity candidate MariTide (maridebart cafraglutide), a peptide‑antibody conjugate designed as a once‑monthly injection for obesity and obesity‑related conditions.
Program status
Key facts as of late 2025: [22]
- Amgen has launched a broad Phase 3 program called MARITIME, with trials in obese adults with and without type 2 diabetes.
- A Phase 2 study in type 2 diabetes (including people with and without obesity) has data expected in Q4 2025, i.e., imminently.
- Earlier mid‑stage data, presented mid‑year, showed continuous weight loss at 52 weeks without the plateau that has concerned some investors about rival agents, but the initial headline numbers did not blow away expectations, prompting some caution in the summer coverage. [23]
- Amgen has significantly stepped up R&D spending on MariTide in 2025, with management highlighting six global Phase 3 studies underway. [24]
Competitive and regulatory backdrop
The MariTide story is playing out against an intensifying global obesity‑drug battle:
- Novo Nordisk is advancing Wegovy and next‑gen candidate CagriSema, including new pediatric trials. [25]
- Eli Lilly recently slashed list prices for its Zepbound obesity injections to improve access amid extraordinary demand. [26]
- The World Health Organization just published its first guideline endorsing long‑term use of GLP‑1‑based therapies (semaglutide, tirzepatide, liraglutide) for obesity, acknowledging their clinical benefits but warning about access and cost. [27]
Against this backdrop, recent coverage from BioSpace and others stresses that Amgen believes MariTide’s mechanism (antibody‑peptide conjugate) and monthly dosing could help it differentiate in an increasingly crowded GLP‑1 landscape, particularly in patients who struggle with weekly injections or require combination approaches for cardiometabolic disease. [28]
Zacks/Nasdaq analysis notes that while initial MariTide data fell short of the loftiest hopes, the drug “has the potential to be a game‑changer,” and that continued progress in late‑stage trials could meaningfully reshape Amgen’s long‑term growth profile. [29]
Bottom line: MariTide is the fulcrum of many bullish price targets—but it is still in development, and upcoming data are a significant binary catalyst.
Oncology and rare‑disease engines: Imdelltra, Tezspire and Horizon assets
While obesity gets the headlines, Amgen is also building a multi‑pillar growth engine across oncology, immunology and rare disease.
Imdelltra (tarlatamab) – now a full‑approval standard of care
In November 2025, the FDA granted traditional (full) approval to Imdelltra for adults with extensive‑stage small cell lung cancer whose disease has progressed after frontline therapy. [30]
- A Phase 3 trial showed a ~40% reduction in the risk of death vs standard chemotherapy, firmly establishing Imdelltra as a new standard of care in this notoriously hard‑to‑treat cancer. [31]
- Sales have ramped quickly from $81m in Q1 to significantly higher levels later in the year, and management has signaled confidence in further label expansions. [32]
Tezspire, Repatha and other core growth brands
Across its portfolio, Amgen has multiple mid‑life “growth engines”:
- Repatha (PCSK9 inhibitor for cholesterol): Q3 sales jumped 40% YoY, and new data showed a 36% reduction in first heart attacks in high‑risk patients—solidifying the drug’s cardiovascular benefit case. [33]
- Tezspire (severe asthma): Delivered 40–46% YoY sales growth in Q2–Q3 2025, driven by robust volume gains. [34]
- Horizon‑acquired assets such as Tepezza, Krystexxa and Uplizna have had a choppy trajectory versus early expectations but are now posting solid sales growth, particularly in Q3 2025. [35]
Amgen also continues to invest in an extensive biosimilar portfolio, with Phase 3 programs targeting blockbuster immuno‑oncology drugs like Opdivo and Keytruda, and MS therapy Ocrevus. [36]
Dividend, cash returns and manufacturing expansion
A reliable, growing dividend
Amgen remains a dividend mainstay in biotech:
- The board has declared a Q4 2025 dividend of $2.38 per share, payable December 12, 2025, to shareholders of record on November 21. [37]
- At current prices, the annualized dividend ($9.52) translates to a yield around 2.7–2.9%, and Amgen has raised its dividend for 15 consecutive years. [38]
Free cash flow remains robust (over $4 billion in Q3 alone), comfortably supporting dividend payments, debt service and ongoing buybacks. [39]
Balance sheet and leverage
Trefis estimates Amgen carries about $55 billion of debt against its ~$185 billion equity value, with a debt‑to‑equity ratio near 36% and a cash‑to‑assets ratio around 10%. [40]
MarketBeat cites a higher debt‑to‑equity of ~5.45 on a different accounting basis, underlining that while Amgen is not under immediate stress, leverage is not trivial and constrains capital‑allocation flexibility if major tax or patent liabilities crystallize. [41]
Capacity expansion
Beyond R&D, Amgen is still investing heavily in physical infrastructure:
- In September 2025, it announced a $650 million expansion of its biologics manufacturing site in Juncos, Puerto Rico, expected to create nearly 750 jobs and reinforce U.S. supply chain resilience. [42]
- This builds on $40+ billion invested in manufacturing and R&D since 2017, including large projects in California, Ohio and North Carolina. [43]
These expansions support long‑term volume growth and may also be strategically helpful as tax and trade policy debates continue.
What are Wall Street analysts saying about AMGN?
Analyst sentiment is constructive but not euphoric, reflecting both the strong 2025 run in the stock and binary pipeline risks.
Consensus ratings and price targets
Different trackers show slightly different snapshots:
- StockAnalysis: 13 covering analysts with an average “Hold” rating and a 12‑month price target of ~$315, implying modest downside from current levels. Target range: $272 (low) to $381 (high). [44]
- MarketBeat: Broader sample with a “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average target around $335–336, with individual targets stretching from the low $270s up to $400. [45]
- Quiver Quantitative: Highlights recent updates, including: [46]
- BMO Capital: new $372 target (Dec 3)
- Piper Sandler:$381 target (Nov 14)
- Goldman Sachs: reiterated $400 target and Buy rating, touting Amgen as a top low‑volatility pick
- Morgan Stanley:$329, Equal Weight
- Bank of America:$272, one of the more cautious views
- Median target across recent updates sits around $317
On the quantitative side, multiple services classify AMGN as low‑volatility, high‑quality with above‑market growth but note that the stock is trading above many of these price targets after its recent surge. TS2 Tech+2Yahoo Finance+2
Zacks/Nasdaq view: Stay invested, but watch the cliffs
In a late‑November analysis syndicated via Nasdaq, Zacks observes that: [47]
- Amgen stock has outperformed its biotech peer group, its sector, and the S&P 500 in 2025.
- The forward P/E (~16x) is below the industry average but above Amgen’s own 5‑year mean, suggesting “reasonable” but no longer cheap valuation.
- Consensus earnings estimates have ticked higher for both 2025 and 2026 (to ~$21.28 and $21.66 per share).
- Zacks rates AMGN Rank #3 (Hold), arguing that existing shareholders have good reason to stay invested, but new buyers should respect near‑term risks from patent expiries, pricing pressure and obesity data.
Key risks: patent cliffs, pricing pressure, tax and legal overhangs
Even at record highs, the bear case on Amgen is alive and well—and today’s news cycle also includes some more cautious commentary.
1. Patent expiry and the “stagnation” argument
Several analyses, including a bearish Seeking Alpha piece titled “Amgen: Stagnation And The IRS Are Coming,” warn that Amgen faces a multi‑year patent cliff, particularly for Prolia and Xgeva, and potentially for Enbrel and some Horizon assets. [48]
Zacks notes: [49]
- RANKL antibodies Prolia and Xgeva lost key U.S. and some EU patent protection in 2025, with multiple biosimilars already launched, and meaningful sales erosion expected from Q4 onward.
- The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Medicare Part D redesign are already pressuring net prices, particularly for Enbrel and Otezla, which are slated for Part D price negotiations in 2026 and 2027.
These dynamics set up a tug‑of‑war between decelerating legacy brands and ramping newer assets like Tezspire, Imdelltra, Horizon drugs and, potentially, MariTide.
2. Tax dispute and litigation risk
As highlighted by today’s AInvest article (and prior Reuters coverage), Amgen is embroiled in a $10.7 billion IRS tax dispute over transfer‑pricing practices. The associated securities class action alleges that the company’s disclosures understated the magnitude and timing of that risk. [50]
If Amgen ultimately loses on both tax and shareholder‑litigation fronts, it could face:
- Significant cash outflows or forced restructuring of its balance sheet
- Potential limits on capital returns (buybacks/dividends)
- Ongoing reputational and governance questions
None of this is guaranteed, and Amgen vigorously disputes the IRS’s position, but for valuation purposes, the tail‑risk is real.
3. Patent litigation and international IP uncertainty
Amgen is also involved in a variety of patent disputes globally:
- In the U.S., a jury previously found that leukemia drug Blincyto infringed patents held by Lindis Biotech, awarding $50.3 million in damages; that verdict is being appealed. [51]
- In Europe and India, legal commentary highlights ongoing cases that could influence how Amgen’s antibody patents are interpreted and enforced, with potentially wider implications for biopharmaceutical IP. [52]
These cases are unlikely to be existential but add noise and potential costs.
4. Execution risk in obesity and specialty markets
MariTide and other pipeline assets come with typical biotech risks:
- If Phase 2 or Phase 3 obesity data disappoint versus the very high bar set by Wegovy and Zepbound, the market may need to reset long‑term growth expectations and valuations. [53]
- Horizon‑acquired drugs like Tepezza, Krystexxa and Uplizna have already shown volatility versus sell‑side models, reminding investors that rare‑disease launches are lumpy. [54]
And with AMGN shares now near technical overbought territory, any negative surprise could trigger sharper pullbacks than earlier in the year. TS2 Tech+1
Amgen stock forecast: how the scenarios line up
No single forecast will be “right,” but current market data let us sketch a reasonable scenario range for AMGN over the next 12–18 months.
Bearish / downside scenario
- Drug pricing and biosimilars bite harder than expected, with steep declines in Prolia, Xgeva and Enbrel not fully offset by growth drugs.
- MariTide data disappoints, or regulators demand larger, slower programs that push meaningful revenue several years out.
- Tax litigation and patent disputes resolve in a way that meaningfully dents free cash flow.
In this world, the more cautious targets in the low‑$270s (e.g., Bank of America’s $272) begin to look reasonable, implying material downside from current levels without a collapse in the overall business. [55]
Base case
- Amgen hits or slightly beats its raised 2025 guidance and maintains mid‑single‑digit revenue growth into 2026 as legacy erosion is offset by newer assets.
- MariTide data are solid but not game‑changing, enough to justify continued late‑stage investment and obesity optionality but not enough to immediately transform the growth profile.
- Tax and legal outcomes remain unresolved but do not explode into worst‑case payouts in the forecast period.
Consensus targets in the low‑to‑mid $300s (average around $315–$335) reflect this kind of “good but not spectacular” outcome—roughly flat to modestly down from today’s price once the recent rally is digested. [56]
Bullish / upside scenario
- MariTide’s late‑stage data land at the high end of expectations, reinforcing the thesis that Amgen can be a top‑tier obesity player with a differentiated monthly therapy.
- Imdelltra, Tezspire, Repatha, Horizon assets and biosimilars together deliver sustained double‑digit growth, more than offsetting IRA and biosimilar headwinds.
- Tax and patent risks resolve favorably or at manageable cost, with minimal impact on capital allocation.
Under that backdrop, the upper‑tier price targets—BMO’s $372, Piper’s $381, Goldman’s $400, and Trefis’ $450— illustrate the plausible upside range the market is whispering about. [57]
Even the short‑term technical model at StockInvest, which sees a $404–$442 band over the next three months if the current trend persists, loosely lines up with the more bullish fundamental calls. [58]
Should investors buy, hold or take profits?
From a news and analysis standpoint as of December 4, 2025, three things are simultaneously true:
- Execution has been excellent. Amgen is delivering double‑digit revenue growth, expanding its oncology and immunology footprint, and raising guidance, all while maintaining a solid dividend and strong cash flow. [59]
- The stock is no longer cheap. After a ~35% YTD run and a drift above many Street price targets, valuation now bakes in a meaningful probability of obesity success and continued pipeline execution. Investing.com+3TS2 Tech+3MarketBeat+3
- Structural risks are real. Patent expiries, IRA‑driven pricing pressure, a large IRS dispute and ongoing IP litigation are not hypothetical—they are unfolding in real time and could limit upside or trigger volatility, even if the core business remains durable. [60]
For long‑term, diversified investors who already own AMGN, the prevailing message across today’s research flow is essentially “stay the course but know what you own”:
- You’re buying a defensive growth compounder with a strong dividend and low beta.
- Your upside depends heavily on MariTide and continued scaling of newer brands, not on Enbrel or Prolia.
- Your main risks are policy (IRA), patents and tax, not immediate demand for Amgen’s medicines.
For would‑be new buyers, the December 2025 setup is murkier:
- Momentum, technicals and several models (Trefis, StockInvest) lean bullish, but
- Consensus fundamentals (Street price targets, Zacks rank) lean closer to “Hold,” suggesting the easy money may have already been made unless obesity and oncology pipelines strongly outperform expectations.
As always, this overview is informational, not investment advice. Anyone considering Amgen stock should:
- Review the company’s latest 10‑K, 10‑Q and risk factors,
- Stress‑test their portfolio for single‑name healthcare and policy risk, and
- Consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser before making decisions.
References
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