Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: FOLD) is trading like a classic “deal stock” on December 22, 2025—hovering just below a fixed cash acquisition price after BioMarin Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ: BMRN) agreed to buy the company in an all-cash transaction.
As of the latest available trade on Dec. 22, FOLD is around $14.22, with the market effectively pricing in the probability, timing, and risk of the merger closing—rather than the stand-alone upside of Amicus’ rare disease commercial portfolio.
Below is a detailed roundup of the current news, forecasts, and analyst/market commentary shaping Amicus stock on 22.12.2025—and the specific catalysts that can still move the price from here.
What’s driving Amicus Therapeutics stock on December 22, 2025?
The single dominant driver is BioMarin’s definitive agreement to acquire Amicus for $14.50 per share in cash, valuing the equity at approximately $4.8 billion. The deal was announced December 19, 2025, and FOLD rapidly repriced upward toward the offer level. [1]
With the cash price now acting as a gravitational pull, day-to-day stock moves in FOLD tend to reflect:
- perceived deal completion odds
- expected time to close
- any signs of regulatory, shareholder, or legal friction
- (less commonly) the chance of a competing bid
Deal terms that matter for FOLD shareholders
The headline: $14.50 per share, all cash
Under Amicus’ filed disclosure, each share of Amicus common stock (with typical exclusions like dissenting shares) will be converted into the right to receive $14.50 in cash at the merger’s effective time. [2]
Expected closing window: Q2 2026
The companies say the transaction is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, subject to customary conditions such as regulatory clearances and approval by Amicus shareholders. [3]
Key closing conditions: shareholder vote + HSR and other clearances
BioMarin’s filing outlines typical conditions including the expiration/termination of the waiting period under the Hart‑Scott‑Rodino (HSR) Act, other antitrust/foreign direct investment clearances, and the required shareholder approval. [4]
The “outside date” and the $175M termination fee
One of the most important “risk plumbing” details for merger-arbitrage investors is the agreement’s termination framework:
- Either party can terminate if the merger is not consummated by June 19, 2026 (midnight ET), with provisions for automatic extensions in certain regulatory-delay scenarios. [5]
- Under specified circumstances, Amicus would owe BioMarin a $175 million termination fee. [6]
These terms don’t guarantee completion—but they do define the incentives and the guardrails around deal risk.
Why BioMarin is buying Amicus: the commercial rare-disease platform
BioMarin is acquiring Amicus for its marketed rare disease therapies and pipeline value, with the companies emphasizing growth potential and global expansion.
The two marketed franchises
The joint announcement highlights two marketed products:
- Galafold (migalastat) for Fabry disease (oral therapy)
- Pombiliti (cipaglucosidase alfa-atga) + Opfolda (miglustat) for Pompe disease (two-component therapy)
The companies state these products generated $599 million in combined net product revenues over the past four quarters. [7]
The pipeline kicker: DMX-200 rights
Reuters also notes Amicus holds U.S. rights to DMX‑200, described as a potential treatment for focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS), a rare kidney disease—an additional asset BioMarin gains through the transaction. [8]
BioMarin’s financing plan
The acquisition is described as not subject to financing conditions, with BioMarin planning to fund it using cash on hand plus approximately $3.7 billion in non-convertible debt financing, supported by a bridge commitment from Morgan Stanley Senior Funding, according to the companies’ disclosure. [9]
A major “under the hood” update: Galafold IP litigation settlements
A key piece of deal-day news wasn’t just the buyout—it was also fresh certainty around Galafold’s U.S. intellectual property horizon.
In the joint release, the companies state:
- Based on litigation settlements announced, U.S. exclusivity for Galafold is expected through January 2037. [10]
- Amicus entered license agreements with Aurobindo and Lupin that would permit them to market U.S. generics beginning January 30, 2037, if FDA approval is obtained and subject to customary limited circumstances. [11]
For investors, this matters because durable exclusivity can significantly affect long-run cash flows—one reason Galafold’s positioning has been central to Amicus’ valuation story.
Analyst actions on 22.12.2025: price targets converge to $14.50
Once a cash deal is announced, equity research often shifts from “what’s the company worth” to “what’s the deal worth” (and how likely is it to close). That dynamic is visible in the analyst notes hitting tape on December 22.
TD Cowen: downgrade to Hold, price target reset to $14.50
In one of the day’s most-cited notes, TD Cowen downgraded Amicus from Buy to Hold and cut its target to $14.50 (from $20) in response to the BioMarin buyout announcement. [12]
TD Cowen also framed BioMarin as a “logical acquirer,” pointing to strategic fit between Amicus’ enzyme-related rare disease products and BioMarin’s commercial focus. [13]
Citigroup: latest target shown at $14.50 on Dec. 22
Benzinga’s analyst-rating feed shows a Citigroup update dated December 22, 2025 listing a $14.50 price target, reflecting how quickly targets can be pulled down toward a fixed cash consideration after an M&A announcement. [14]
The practical takeaway for investors
When a stock trades close to the cash offer, many price targets become mechanically anchored to the deal price. At that point, the “forecast” embedded in the stock is less about 2026–2027 product execution and more about:
- closing probability
- time value of money
- regulatory/shareholder process risk
The market’s “forecast” right now: FOLD is pricing a small merger spread
On Dec. 22, FOLD trading around $14.22 versus the $14.50 cash offer implies a spread of about $0.28 per share (~2%). [15]
That spread can widen or tighten for several reasons:
What could tighten the spread (push FOLD closer to $14.50)
- Faster progress on the proxy/shareholder vote process
- Smooth regulatory review (including HSR expiration/termination) [16]
- Greater investor confidence in timing (earlier close tends to raise the annualized return in merger-arb models)
What could widen the spread (pull FOLD away from $14.50)
- Any sign the deal timeline is slipping toward the June 19, 2026 outside date [17]
- Regulatory complications or conditions
- A deterioration in operating performance that raises “material adverse effect” concerns (rare, but watched)
- Litigation or shareholder activism that adds uncertainty (common in public-company deal cycles)
And of course, the extreme downside scenario for a deal stock is always: the deal breaks, and the stock reverts toward a stand-alone valuation.
Technical and momentum commentary: strong RS rating, but the deal caps “pure momentum” upside
Even with M&A mechanics now in control, FOLD is still showing up in technical screens because of the abrupt repricing.
Investor’s Business Daily’s data story for Dec. 22 reports Amicus’ Relative Strength (RS) Rating rising to 96, reflecting strong 12-month price performance versus the broader market. [18]
That said, in a cash-buyout situation, technical setups can lose predictive power because:
- the deal price creates a de facto ceiling (absent a bidding war)
- spreads behave more like event-driven pricing than normal supply/demand momentum
Other deal-context news on Dec. 22: BioMarin pipeline housekeeping
One item investors are discussing alongside the acquisition is BioMarin’s broader pipeline focus and capital allocation decisions.
Fierce Biotech reported that BioMarin discontinued development of BMN 349, a Phase 1 genetic liver disease candidate, referencing a document filed with the SEC on Dec. 22 and noting the discontinuation was stated as announced on Dec. 19—the same day as the Amicus acquisition announcement. [19]
For Amicus shareholders, this doesn’t change the $14.50 cash consideration directly—but it adds color to how BioMarin may be prioritizing programs as it absorbs a major acquisition.
What happens next: the key catalysts to watch after 22.12.2025
If you’re tracking Amicus Therapeutics stock from here, the highest-signal items are mostly procedural:
- Proxy statement and shareholder vote process
The filings indicate the transaction requires approval by Amicus shareholders, and the companies outline the proxy process in their disclosed deal mechanics. [20] - HSR waiting period and other clearances
Confirmation that HSR (and other applicable regulatory reviews) has cleared is often a major spread-tightener. [21] - Any competing bid / superior proposal headlines
The merger agreement includes typical constraints and exceptions around alternative proposals—meaning headlines can still matter even if a bidding war is not expected. [22] - Timeline discipline toward Q2 2026
The closer the market gets to the expected close window (or the outside date), the more the spread can reprice based on perceived timing risk. [23]
Bottom line for Amicus (FOLD) stock on December 22, 2025
As of 22.12.2025, Amicus Therapeutics stock is no longer trading primarily on Fabry/Pompe commercial execution or long-horizon pipeline upside. It’s trading on a single dominant variable: the likelihood and timing of receiving $14.50 in cash from BioMarin.
That makes FOLD a very different kind of ticker to follow—closer to an event-driven “deal spread” instrument than a typical biotech growth story. The remaining upside/downside is largely about deal mechanics and risk, and investors should watch the proxy, regulatory milestones, and any timeline or legal developments rather than traditional product catalysts. [24]
References
1. www.sec.gov, 2. www.sec.gov, 3. www.sec.gov, 4. www.sec.gov, 5. www.sec.gov, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.benzinga.com, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.sec.gov, 17. www.sec.gov, 18. www.investors.com, 19. www.fiercebiotech.com, 20. www.sec.gov, 21. www.sec.gov, 22. www.sec.gov, 23. www.sec.gov, 24. www.sec.gov
