ANZ Group Holdings (ASX: ANZ) Stock: This Week’s Key Catalysts, Dividend, AGM Pay Vote — and the Week-Ahead Outlook (Updated 14 Dec 2025)

Updated: 14 December 2025 (AEST)
ANZ Group Holdings Limited (ASX: ANZ) heads into the final full trading week before Christmas with its share price steady, its final dividend payment days away, and its Annual General Meeting (AGM) shaping up as a major governance flashpoint.

As of the last ASX close on Friday, 12 December 2025, ANZ finished at A$35.81, around 8% below its 52‑week high of A$38.93 (set 12 November 2025) and well above the 52‑week low of A$26.22 (7 April 2025). ^[1]

What’s different right now isn’t a sudden earnings surprise—it’s the convergence of (1) a high-profile lawsuit by former CEO Shayne Elliott over cancelled bonuses, (2) proxy advisers pushing shareholders to vote against ANZ’s pay report, and (3) a macro backdrop where the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is signalling caution as inflation shows signs of re-accelerating.

ANZ share price snapshot (updated today)

Last close (12 Dec 2025):A$35.81 ^[2]
52‑week range:A$26.22 – A$38.93 ^[3]
Market cap: roughly A$107bn (data vendor estimate) ^[4]
Trailing cash dividend per share (FY2025):A$1.66 total (83c interim + 83c final), with franking on the cash dividend partially franked at 70% ^[5]

A headline takeaway for income-focused investors: at Friday’s close, a A$1.66 annual cash dividend implies a cash yield of about 4.6% (before any investor-specific tax treatment). Data services and registries can show different “gross” yields depending on whether franking credits are included. ^[6]

What moved ANZ stock this week: governance risk took centre stage

1) Former CEO Shayne Elliott sues ANZ over cancelled bonuses

The biggest ANZ-specific headline in the last few days: former CEO Shayne Elliott has launched legal action in the NSW Supreme Court, arguing ANZ breached his departure agreement by cutting A$13.5 million in bonuses. ANZ has said it will defend the matter vigorously. ^[7]

Reuters reported ANZ’s annual report shows roughly A$32 million in executive bonuses were cut, while Elliott still retains A$7.9 million in long‑term incentive pay post-cuts—details that have become central to the debate over whether the board’s “accountability” response went far enough. ^[8]

The Financial Times framed the lawsuit as adding pressure right before the AGM, with proxy advisers already criticising ANZ’s remuneration outcomes. ^[9]

2) Proxy advisers recommend voting against ANZ’s executive pay report (second-strike risk)

In early December, Reuters reported Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) and Glass Lewis both recommended shareholders vote against ANZ’s remuneration report at the 18 December AGM—keeping ANZ’s pay practices under intense scrutiny. ^[10]

This matters because Australia’s “two strikes” rule can escalate into a board spill vote if a company receives “no” votes above a threshold on remuneration reports in consecutive years. ^[11]

ANZ already took a heavy protest vote last year: Reuters reported 38% voted against the remuneration report at ANZ’s 2024 AGM—above the 25% level commonly associated with a “strike.” ^[12]

3) RBA holds rates at 3.60%—but flags upside inflation risks

Macro drivers still matter for bank stocks, and the RBA delivered a clear message on 9 December 2025: it left the cash rate unchanged at 3.60%, while noting inflation has picked up more recently and risks have tilted to the upside (even as the Board remains cautious and data-dependent). ^[13]

For ANZ (and peers), this is the tug-of-war: steadier or higher rates can support net interest income in parts of the cycle, but “higher for longer” can also raise credit stress risk and intensify political and regulatory attention on hardship handling.

AGM (18 Dec 2025): the items that could move sentiment quickly

ANZ’s 2025 AGM is on Thursday, 18 December 2025, commencing 9:00am Sydney time, in Sydney. ^[14]

Key business includes:

Adoption of the Remuneration Report (advisory vote—but politically powerful) ^[15]
Director elections/re-elections (including Chair Paul O’Sullivan’s re-election item on the agenda) ^[16]
A resolution on grant of restricted rights and performance rights to CEO Nuno Matos ^[17]
A conditional spill resolution (only triggered if the remuneration report receives a sufficient “no” vote under the two‑strikes framework) ^[18]
Shareholder-proposed items, including climate/financing-related resolutions (conditional) ^[19]

Practical timing detail for markets: ANZ’s notice shows the latest time for receipt of proxy appointments is 9:00am Sydney time on Tuesday, 16 December 2025—meaning positioning and headlines can intensify early in the week. ^[20]

Why investors care: even though the remuneration vote is not binding, a large “no” vote can be read as a referendum on trust, culture, and board credibility—especially right after a record misconduct penalty and the subsequent executive bonus cancellations.

Dividend: 83c final payment due 19 Dec (plus DRP/BOP details)

ANZ has proposed a 2025 final dividend of 83 cents per share, partially franked at 70%, payable on 19 December 2025. ANZ also noted a 1.5% discount applied to the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) and Bonus Option Plan (BOP), and that the unfranked portion is sourced from its conduit foreign income account. ^[21]

ANZ’s dividend page lists the DRP/BOP price as A$34.37 (including the discount) for this final dividend. ^[22]

This matters for the “week ahead” because dividend payment flows can temporarily influence demand from income mandates and retail investors—while DRP/BOP participation influences dilution and effective cash outflow.

Fundamentals check: what ANZ last reported (and what the market is still debating)

The latest full-year update (FY2025) still sets the baseline for most broker models:

Cash profit (excluding significant items):A$6,896m (flat year-on-year, per ANZ) ^[23]
Significant items:A$1,109m (including ASIC settlement and restructuring charges, per ANZ) ^[24]
Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio:12.03% (ANZ said up 25 bps over the half) ^[25]
Capital actions: ANZ said it ceased the remaining ~A$800m of its on‑market buyback and would return ~A$1bn of surplus capital from its non-operating holding company to the bank; including that capital, ANZ cited a pro forma CET1 of 12.26% ^[26]

Meanwhile, management’s cost and simplification agenda is a major part of the medium-term equity story. In remarks linked to the FY2025 briefing, ANZ referenced reducing 3,500 roles by September 2026 and exiting 1,000 managed services consultants, with over 30% of the 3,500 roles already exited by end‑October. ^[27]

Forecasts and analyst views: where expectations sit heading into 2026

Street-style 12‑month targets: roughly mid‑A$30s, wide dispersion

One frequently-cited consensus snapshot (data-vendor compiled) puts the average 12‑month price target around A$35.24, with a high estimate of A$40.40 and a low estimate around A$30, and an overall “Neutral” stance based on buy/sell splits. ^[28]

Read that carefully: with ANZ closing at A$35.81, that kind of consensus implies limited upside on average—unless ANZ executes better than expected on costs and market share, or the macro/rate outlook becomes more supportive.

Morningstar’s view: “wide moat,” but valuation looks stretched

Morningstar’s Australia team kept a fair value estimate of A$33 and described ANZ shares as overvalued at the time of its post-results note, pointing to competitive pressures, softer retail margins, and the need to improve efficiency. It also flagged ANZ’s cost/income ratio as the least attractive among the majors (in its comparison set) and argued the bank may keep losing market share in FY2026 before improvements show. ^[29]

Morningstar’s broader “Chart of the Week” on Australian banks also argued valuations looked stretched relative to a modest earnings-growth outlook, while still describing ANZ as the “best value” among the big four in that framework. ^[30]

The “bull vs bear” setup going into the next quarter

Based on the most widely repeated research themes in recent analysis:

Bull case (what needs to go right):

Cost-out and simplification translate into sustainably better efficiency
Digital and service improvements stabilise (or regain) market share
Suncorp Bank integration benefits outweigh execution risk ^[31]

Bear case (what can go wrong):

Competition keeps margins under pressure
Governance and remediation costs remain a persistent drag
Any macro deterioration hits credit quality, and the market reprices bank risk ^[32]

ANZ: week ahead (15–19 Dec 2025) — the events to watch

Next week is unusually “eventful” for a mature bank stock because multiple sentiment catalysts are stacked together.

1) Proxy deadline (Tuesday) → AGM headlines (Thursday)

Tuesday, 16 Dec: proxy deadline (9:00am Sydney time) ^[33]
Thursday, 18 Dec: ANZ AGM (9:00am Sydney time) ^[34]

Expect AGM coverage to focus on:

the scale of any “no” vote on remuneration (and whether spill mechanics are triggered),
board accountability after misconduct penalties and customer remediation issues,
how the board frames the ex‑CEO lawsuit and the bank’s culture-risk fixes. ^[35]

2) Final dividend paid (Friday, 19 Dec)

Friday, 19 Dec: final dividend payment date ^[36]

3) Macro diary: speeches and sentiment prints

Even without a rate decision next week, the economic “noise” can still move bank stocks through rate expectations and bond yields. Westpac’s weekly calendar flags central-bank speaker events and sentiment/inflation-expectations type releases that can feed into market pricing. ^[37]

Risks and opportunities investors are weighing right now

Near-term risks (days to weeks):

AGM volatility: a second strike-style outcome can dominate headlines even if it doesn’t change near-term earnings
Litigation optics: Elliott’s claim keeps the pay and accountability story alive through summer ^[38]

Medium-term fundamentals (quarters):

Margin and market share versus peers in a competitive mortgage and deposit market ^[39]
Cost-out delivery and operational risk improvement (hard to do fast, expensive to do slowly) ^[40]
Rate-path uncertainty: the RBA is explicitly watching for persistent inflation pressures, which could reshape the “cuts vs holds” narrative into 2026 ^[41]

Bottom line: ANZ’s next week is about trust as much as numbers

ANZ stock is entering the week ahead with a straightforward calendar—AGM, then dividend—but a complicated narrative. The bank has a strong capital position and a clear cost and simplification agenda, yet governance and culture remain the market’s stress test.

If AGM outcomes show shareholder anger cooling, ANZ may get breathing room to re-focus attention on execution: costs, digital uplift, and integration. If anger escalates, ANZ could remain “headline-driven” even as the underlying bank keeps grinding out stable earnings.