ANZ Group Holdings Limited (ASX: ANZ) Stock: AGM Second Strike, CEO Bonus Waiver, Dividend Outlook and Analyst Forecasts (18 December 2025)

SYDNEY — ANZ Group Holdings Limited (ASX: ANZ) shares were steady on Thursday after shareholders delivered a second consecutive “strike” against the bank’s remuneration report at its 2025 annual general meeting (AGM) — a governance flashpoint that can escalate into a board spill process under Australia’s rules. The immediate market response was muted, with Reuters reporting the stock trading around A$36.13 after early volatility. ^[1]

But don’t confuse “muted price action” with “no consequences.” ANZ’s AGM put three things on loudspeaker for investors assessing the ANZ share price into 2026:

governance and accountability are still an overhang,
the new CEO is trying to “buy credibility” with tougher optics on pay, and
the investment debate is shifting toward whether ANZ 2030 can turn remediation and simplification into stronger, more consistent earnings.

ANZ AGM 2025: the second strike is real — but the board survives (this time)

The headline outcome: 32.36% of votes were cast against ANZ’s remuneration report, exceeding the 25% threshold that constitutes a “strike.” Because this was ANZ’s second strike in a row, the meeting also included a spill resolution mechanism — and investors were watching closely to see if ANZ would be forced into a disruptive board reset. ^[2]

That didn’t happen. The spill vote was overwhelmingly rejected (proxy results showed roughly 97.73% against). ^[3]

In plain English: shareholders fired a warning shot across the bow, but they didn’t pull the eject lever on the board.

CEO bonus: a symbolic move designed to reset trust

ANZ said CEO Nuno Matos proposed giving up his short‑term bonus for the year — even though, as the chair noted, many of the underlying issues pre‑dated his arrival. ^[4]

From an investor lens, this is less about the dollar amount and more about the signal: ANZ’s new leadership is trying to reposition executive pay as consequence-driven while the bank works through regulatory and cultural remediation.

The proxy results investors are zeroing in on

Beyond the remuneration strike and the failed spill motion, ANZ’s AGM voting revealed something else that matters for long-term holders: shareholders appear wary of changes that could limit their leverage.

A proposed amendment to ANZ’s constitution was heavily voted down (proxy results showed about 90.44% against). ^[5]

There were also climate- and nature-related shareholder resolutions in play. ANZ’s board argued those items (along with the constitution amendment) were not in shareholders’ best interests, while reiterating its stated approach of engaging major emitting customers and treating climate risk as a present-tense financial risk. ^[6]

For ANZ stock watchers, the through-line is: shareholders want accountability — but they’re selective about the tools used to enforce it.

Why governance is still weighing on ANZ stock

The pay strike didn’t come out of nowhere. ANZ has been working through multiple regulatory and conduct issues — and the numbers attached to those issues are not small.

The Australian Shareholders’ Association (ASA) summarised ANZ’s September 2025 ASIC settlement amounts across several matters — totalling A$240 million, pending Federal Court approval — and also pointed to an APRA enforceable undertaking and a capital overlay that effectively ties up lending capacity. ^[7]

Reuters and other outlets have linked the AGM backlash to ANZ’s “string of recent scandals,” while also noting the bank has litigation underway connected to remuneration decisions. ^[8]

The staffing story: restructuring savings vs. execution risk

Another pressure point is workforce reduction. Media coverage of the AGM included criticism from the Finance Sector Union and references to thousands of job cuts, including contractors — a live issue because cuts can improve efficiency or create operational risk if mishandled. ^[9]

This matters to ANZ’s valuation because banks live and die on operational discipline: compliance, controls, customer outcomes, and the boring excellence of “nothing breaks at scale.”

ANZ 2030 strategy: what Matos is promising shareholders

ANZ’s investment narrative is now increasingly framed around whether ANZ 2030 can translate simplification into better returns — without triggering fresh non-financial-risk problems along the way.

In his CEO address, Matos described a two-phase delivery plan: FY26–FY27 focused on getting fundamentals right (including productivity uplift and investment for growth), followed by a second phase beyond FY27 aimed at accelerating growth and outperforming the market. ^[10]

He also set out practical milestones, including:

completing migration of Suncorp Bank customers to ANZ by June 2027, ^[11]
accelerating the rollout of the ANZ Plus digital front-end to ANZ’s retail and SME customers by September 2027, ^[12]
increasing bankers in Australia Retail and Business & Private Banking by up to 50% over five years, ^[13]
leaning into distribution expansion such as Bank@Post, which ANZ says gives customers access to basic banking at 3,300+ participating Australia Post locations. ^[14]

That last point is more than PR. If branch footprints keep shrinking across the sector, distribution partnerships can reduce customer churn risk — especially in regional areas — and potentially protect deposit flows (a big deal when competition for deposits heats up).

Dividend and capital: what income investors are watching right now

For many shareholders, ANZ is owned for yield as much as for growth. And ANZ goes into the end of 2025 with a near-term dividend catalyst:

ANZ proposed a 2025 final dividend of 83 cents per share, partially franked at 70%, payable 19 December 2025. ^[15]
The bank’s full-year dividend totals 166 cents per share. ^[16]

On capital strength, ANZ reported a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 12.03% at the end of September, up 25 basis points over the half, and described its balance sheet and capital position as strong. ^[17]

ANZ also previously said it ceased the remaining ~A$800 million of its on-market buyback and would return surplus capital from its non-operating holding company to the bank, lifting pro forma CET1. ^[18]

Investor takeaway: in the near term, ANZ is leaning more on dividends (and dividend reinvestment settings) than on buybacks to manage shareholder returns while it funds remediation and transformation.

ANZ share price forecast: what analysts are projecting (and what that implies)

Forecasts aren’t facts — they’re professional guesses with spreadsheets — but consensus still influences market narratives.

Consensus price targets are clustered in the mid‑A$30s

Investing.com’s analyst snapshot shows 14 analysts with an average target of roughly A$35.24 (high estimate A$40.4, low A$30) and a consensus rating described as “Neutral” (buys, holds, and sells split across the coverage list). ^[19]

Stockopedia similarly lists a consensus target around A$35.34, slightly below its referenced last close of A$35.81, and also notes a consensus EPS forecast of A$2.45 for the next financial year. ^[20]

Simply Wall St’s summary also echoes an analyst-consensus target around A$35.24 and presents its own model-driven “fair value” framing (with explicit caveats about methodology). ^[21]

How to read this for ANZ stock: consensus targets suggest the market (collectively) sees ANZ as roughly fairly priced to slightly pricey around current levels — meaning a lot of “good news” may already be baked in unless execution beats expectations.

Broker notes and target changes: the range of opinion is wide

MarketScreener’s consensus/recommendations feed highlights how broker views have shifted through 2025 (including upgrades/downgrades and target price adjustments by firms such as Jarden, Jefferies, UBS, Macquarie, Citi and Morgan Stanley, as syndicated via market-news services). ^[22]

This dispersion matters because it tells you what the argument is really about: not whether ANZ is a bank (it is), but whether ANZ can lift returns and market share while absorbing the cost (and risk) of transformation.

The macro backdrop: mortgage competition and interest-rate crosscurrents

Banks don’t trade in a vacuum; they trade in a weird little weather system made of rates, margins, credit quality, and housing.

Reuters previously reported ANZ’s strategy includes chasing home-loan market share and simplifying operations, while targeting improved returns over time — including a 12% return on tangible equity by 2028 (and 13% by 2030) and significant cost savings. ^[23]

On the New Zealand side of the business, recent reporting indicated more customers asking about switching from floating to fixed-rate mortgages as rates moved — a reminder that customer behaviour can shift quickly with funding costs and central bank signalling. ^[24]

For ANZ investors, the rate story matters because it hits earnings through multiple channels at once: net interest margin (what the bank earns on lending vs what it pays on funding), credit demand, and arrears/impairments if households get squeezed.

What could move ANZ shares next (the realistic catalyst list)

Here are the “grown-up” catalysts that tend to matter more than AGM theatre once the headlines fade:

Proof of execution on ANZ 2030: productivity gains, simplification, and measurable improvement in customer outcomes and non-financial risk performance. ^[25]
Suncorp Bank integration milestones: migration execution is a classic bank risk—expensive if it goes wrong, value-creating if it goes right. ^[26]
Credit quality trends: ANZ reported FY25 credit impairment charges and provisioning metrics in its full‑year release; investors will watch whether losses stay contained as cost-of-living pressures evolve. ^[27]
Regulatory/legal resolution path: outcomes tied to the ASIC settlement process and ongoing litigation around remuneration and former executive outcomes can influence sentiment (even when the financial hit is already provisioned). ^[28]
Capital management choices: buybacks vs dividend settings vs investment spend as ANZ balances transformation funding with shareholder returns. ^[29]

The bottom line for ANZ Group Holdings stock on 18 December 2025

ANZ’s AGM delivered a clean summary of the current ANZ stock debate:

The franchise looks resilient (dividend intact, capital solid, market position meaningful). ^[30]
The governance clean-up isn’t finished, and shareholders are still signalling dissatisfaction — loudly. ^[31]
The transformation story is the hinge: if ANZ 2030 translates into higher productivity, better risk management, and improved returns without fresh conduct failures, the market will likely reward that consistency; if not, the bank risks staying trapped in a cycle of remediation costs and reputational drag. ^[32]
Analyst consensus is cautious/neutral in aggregate, with targets clustered around the mid‑A$30s and meaningful disagreement across the street. ^[33]