ANZ Group Holdings (ASX: ANZ) heads into mid-December with two big narratives fighting for the steering wheel: a high-profile legal dispute over executive pay, and an aggressive multi‑year turnaround plan under CEO Nuno Matos that aims to lift returns, cut complexity and accelerate the Suncorp Bank integration. Layer in a looming AGM vote on remuneration, a major regulatory clean‑up program, and a dividend payment due next week — and you have the ingredients for a stock that can look “boring bank” one moment and “headline magnet” the next. [1]
ANZ share price check: where the stock sits going into the weekend
Because 13 December 2025 is a Saturday, the most recent market action is from Friday’s ASX session (12 December). Several market data providers showed ANZ last around A$35.81, with recent trading ranges in the mid‑A$35s and a 52‑week range roughly A$26.22 to A$38.93. [2]
On the broader tape, Australian bank stocks were among the gainers in the latest ASX rally, with ANZ also advancing on the day despite the legal headlines around former CEO Shayne Elliott. [3]
The headline story: former CEO Shayne Elliott sues ANZ over bonus clawback
The most immediate news driver is a lawsuit filed by former ANZ CEO Shayne Elliott, who is seeking to overturn the bank’s decision to withhold A$13.5 million in bonuses (short‑ and long‑term incentives). Elliott argues ANZ breached agreed terms around his departure, while ANZ says the board acted appropriately under remuneration rules that link pay to performance and risk outcomes. [4]
The dispute lands in the middle of ANZ’s broader accountability response following serious regulatory findings (more on that below). Reuters reported that ANZ’s annual report disclosed about A$32 million in executive bonuses were cut, and that Elliott still retained A$7.9 million in long‑term incentive value after reductions. [5]
Why this matters for investors: big banks rarely get re‑rated purely on courtroom drama, but governance and risk culture are now central to how regulators, proxy advisers and large institutions judge Australian financials — which can affect board stability, strategic execution, and even the “multiple” the market is willing to pay.
AGM pressure builds: proxy advisers recommend voting against ANZ’s pay report
The lawsuit is also colliding with a second, very Australia‑specific plot twist: the “two strikes” rule on executive pay. Reuters reported that a second proxy adviser recommended shareholders vote against ANZ’s remuneration report, raising the risk of another “strike.” Under Australia’s system, two strikes in consecutive years can trigger a vote on whether to “spill” the board (force director re‑elections). [6]
ANZ’s Annual General Meeting is scheduled for 18 December 2025 (with the final dividend payable the next day, per market calendars). [7]
What to watch next week: the size of any “no” vote on remuneration, commentary from the chair and CEO on risk remediation, and whether investors signal patience (or impatience) with the turnaround timeline.
The regulatory overhang: ANZ’s A$240 million misconduct penalties and remediation push
ANZ’s governance drama isn’t happening in a vacuum. In September, ASIC announced that ANZ admitted to widespread misconduct across multiple matters and that ASIC and ANZ would ask the Federal Court to impose A$240 million in penalties — described as ASIC’s largest penalties sought against a single entity — spanning both institutional and retail issues. [8]
Reuters has also detailed the nature of the issues, including failures tied to government bond deal conduct and customer‑related breaches (such as fees and hardship handling), and noted the settlement awaited court approval at the time of reporting. [9]
For ANZ stock, the key isn’t just the size of penalties already flagged — it’s whether investors believe the bank can prove durable improvements in non‑financial risk management without derailing the growth and efficiency targets in its strategy reset.
The turnaround plan: “ANZ 2030” targets higher returns, lower costs, faster integration
The other big narrative is ANZ’s strategy reset under CEO Nuno Matos.
Buyback halted, cost savings targeted, returns lifted
In October, Reuters reported ANZ stopped the remaining portion of a share buyback, while outlining a push for A$800 million in pre‑tax cost savings and a target to reach 12% return on tangible equity by 2028, with an ambition around 13% by 2030. [10]
ANZ’s own strategy-update transcript put the targets plainly: return on tangible equity up to 12% by FY28 and 13% by FY30, and a cost‑to‑income ratio in the “mid‑40%” by FY28, supported by A$800 million gross cost savings in FY26 plus A$500 million of Suncorp Bank synergies expected at full run‑rate later in the plan. [11]
Capital management and dividend posture
In that same strategy discussion, ANZ described capital actions including ceasing the remaining buyback and applying a discount to upcoming dividend reinvestment plans. [12]
The message to the market has been: protect capital buffers and execution capacity first, while aiming to keep dividends steady — a stance that matters in a sector where many shareholders own the stock primarily for income.
Suncorp Bank integration accelerated, ANZ Plus expanded
ANZ has repeatedly pointed to simplification through faster integration of Suncorp Bank and broader rollout of the ANZ Plus digital front end. In remarks tied to the 2025 full-year investor briefing, ANZ said it intends to complete migration of Suncorp Bank customers to ANZ by June 2027, and to accelerate delivery of ANZ Plus to retail and SME customers by September 2027. [13]
This integration/simplification push is a classic bank bet: accept near‑term disruption and restructuring costs in exchange for a lower cost base, fewer systems, fewer manual processes, and (ideally) better customer outcomes.
FY2025 results: dividend held, capital ratio above 12%, restructuring and ASIC costs booked
ANZ’s FY2025 full-year results briefing transcript provides the hard numbers investors keep circling:
- Cash return on tangible equity: 10.5% (adjusted for significant items). [14]
- Final dividend: A$0.83 per share, 70% franked, taking the full‑year dividend to A$1.66 per share. [15]
- Capital: CET1 ratio 12.03% at end of September; the transcript also references a pro‑forma CET1 of 12.26% after returning surplus capital from a non‑operating holding company. [16]
The same FY2025 transcript also details major “significant items” impacting results, including:
- A$585 million restructuring charge (staff redundancies),
- A$271 million related to ASIC matters (including the A$240 million in penalties announced earlier plus associated costs),
- additional costs linked to earlier Suncorp integration timing, plus other impairments and exits from non‑bank activities. [17]
For income-focused investors, ANZ’s shareholder dividend page confirms the 2025 final dividend of 83 cents, partially franked at 70%, payable 19 December 2025, with a DRP/BOP discount applied. [18]
Analyst forecasts and valuation: “neutral” consensus, targets clustered around the mid‑A$30s
Forecasting a big bank is rarely about discovering a secret growth engine; it’s about whether the bank can improve efficiency (cost‑to‑income), returns on capital, and risk outcomes faster than peers — without sacrificing franchise value.
Here’s how widely followed third‑party research summaries frame ANZ right now:
- Investing.com’s compiled analyst view lists a “Neutral” consensus, with an average 12‑month target around A$35.24 (high ~A$40.4, low ~A$30), and a split across buy/hold/sell recommendations. [19]
- Morningstar’s analysis (Australia) says it raised its fair value estimate to A$33 after assuming larger cost savings, while still suggesting shares looked modestly overvalued, with the discount to peers reflecting execution risk on cost reductions and delivery. Morningstar also states its medium‑term forecasts broadly align with ANZ’s mid‑40% cost/income and 12% ROtE goals, and notes management’s stance that dividend-cut fears have eased. [20]
Taken together, the tone is: ANZ isn’t priced as “in crisis,” but it isn’t priced as “proven turnaround success” either. The market is effectively asking for evidence.
Macro backdrop: rates on hold at 3.60%, labour market steady — a mixed earnings picture for banks
Bank earnings in Australia are tightly linked to interest rates, deposit competition, and household stress.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged at 3.60% in its December 2025 decision. [21]
- The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported the unemployment rate held at 4.3% in November. [22]
For ANZ, “rates on hold” can be both helpful and annoying:
- Helpful, because it can reduce sudden credit shocks if households aren’t hit with new hikes immediately.
- Annoying, because intense competition for deposits and mortgages can squeeze net interest margins (NIM) even when the headline cash rate is steady.
ANZ itself has described persistent competition across loans and deposits, and the need to optimise pricing and deposit mix in a changing rate environment. [23]
What could move ANZ Group Holdings stock next?
The next catalysts aren’t mysterious — they’re the kind that make bank analysts drink too much coffee and update spreadsheets at ungodly hours:
- AGM outcomes (18 Dec): the vote on remuneration, any “strike” count implications, and board/management messaging on remediation and accountability. [24]
- Dividend mechanics (19 Dec pay date): income flow, DRP participation, and any signals about payout sustainability. [25]
- Execution proof points in FY26: evidence that cost savings are real (not just announced), systems simplification is progressing, and customer outcomes/risk controls are improving in ways regulators accept. [26]
- Suncorp integration delivery: timeline confidence and whether synergies arrive without service issues or operational risk blowups. [27]
- Legal and regulatory headlines: developments in the Elliott lawsuit and any further enforcement or remediation requirements. [28]
The bottom line for readers tracking ANZ stock on 13 December 2025
As of today, ANZ stock sits in a classic bank‑investor tension field:
- Supportive factors: a maintained dividend, strong capital ratios, and a strategy with clear numeric targets on returns and efficiency. [29]
- Pressure points: regulatory remediation, governance scrutiny at the AGM, and the reality that cutting costs and simplifying a major bank is harder than announcing it in a transcript. [30]
- Market expectations: analyst target ranges and “neutral” consensus suggest the stock is priced close to what many forecasters consider fair — meaning future upside likely depends on execution beats, not vibes. [31]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.news.com.au, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.marketindex.com.au, 8. www.asic.gov.au, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.anz.com, 12. www.anz.com, 13. www.anz.com.au, 14. www.anz.com, 15. www.anz.com, 16. www.anz.com, 17. www.anz.com, 18. www.anz.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.morningstar.com.au, 21. www.rba.gov.au, 22. www.abs.gov.au, 23. www.anz.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.anz.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.anz.com.au, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.anz.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.investing.com
