Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock rises 3.5% as low-capex AI profile draws a premium

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) Shares Approach High Ahead of July 30 Earnings as Focus Turns to Lean AI Approach

NEW YORK, July 27, 2026, 05:03 EDT — Nasdaq premarket trading has begun, with the main session to follow at 09:30 EDT.

  • Apple ended Friday at $333.02, rising 3.5%, and added another 0.2% in premarket trading.
  • A filing-based estimate places capital spending for the latest quarter at 1.8% of revenue.
  • Analysts’ initial consensus projects revenue of $108.97 billion and earnings of $1.89 per share.

Apple approaches Thursday’s earnings report just 0.6% below its all-time high. The company gained about $167 billion in market capitalization during Friday’s surge, based on the latest share count. Shares were trading at $333.83 early Monday.

The shift diverged from the main trend. The Nasdaq slid 0.64% on Friday and was down 2.0% for the week. Investors exited technology names amid renewed worries about AI infrastructure expenses.

Alphabet Inc. , the parent company of Google, was a key source of those worries. Shares dropped almost 7% on Thursday following its earnings report. The company’s executives lifted capital expenditure guidance for 2026 to a range of $195 billion to $205 billion.

Alphabet’s expenditures reached $44.9 billion in the second quarter, representing 37.5% of its revenue and resulting in negative free cash flow of $5.9 billion. The bulk of these outlays went toward servers, data centres, and networking equipment.

Apple’s disclosures present a notably different picture. By deducting property acquisitions in the fiscal first quarter from its total over six months, the result is $1.97 billion. This amount was 1.8% of revenue in the fiscal second quarter. In comparison, Alphabet’s proportion was roughly 21 times higher.

CompanyLatest quarterly revenueCapital spendingCapex/revenueForward P/E
Apple$111.18 billion$1.97 billion1.8%36.52 times
Alphabet$119.8 billion$44.9 billion37.5%24.06 times

Apple’s number is based on its filings. Alphabet disclosed its amount outright. Valuation multiples reflected levels as of July 27.

The market is pricing in that distinction. Apple’s forward earnings multiple is roughly 52% higher than Alphabet’s. Thursday’s update needs to confirm that its leaner capital setup continues to underpin growth.

The comparison is not exactly equivalent. Alphabet has a significant cloud infrastructure division, while Apple’s income primarily comes from devices and services. Nonetheless, the disparity highlights what the market is currently valuing.

Minimal capital expenditure does not equate to a lack of investment. Apple increased its research and development outlay by 34% to $11.42 billion in the latest quarter, amounting to 10% of its revenue. The composition indicates that a larger share of investment is captured in operating expenses instead of physical assets.

Initial consensus projections point to revenue up 15.9% and earnings increasing 20.4%. This revenue forecast aligns close to the middle of Apple’s guidance range of 14%-17%. Apple is set to report results and host its earnings call Thursday at 5:00 p.m. EDT.

The previous quarter established solid momentum. iPhone revenue increased by 22% to $56.99 billion, while Services expanded by 16% to $30.98 billion. Increased demand for Pro models contributed to the iPhone revenue lift.

Apple continues to rely on services as its primary margin buffer, with gross margin for services standing at 76.7%, compared with 38.7% for products. However, Chief Executive Tim Cook cautioned: “We expect significantly higher memory costs.” SEC

Investor patience with indefinite AI spending is wearing thin. “The fear of missing out is becoming more like a fear of massive overbuilding,” said Peter Andersen, chief executive at Andersen Capital Management. Reuters

The debate will be resolved on Thursday’s call. Investors are set to scrutinize capital expenditure for the June quarter, assess demand for the iPhone, and look out for any updated margin guidance. Merely exercising restraint will not be adequate.

Risks: Apple trades at a 36.5 times forward earnings multiple. A decline in iPhone sales or a gross margin falling short of its earlier 47.5%-48.5% guidance could reduce that valuation premium. Short-term challenges also include increased memory expenses and supply limitations.

Apple’s advantage lies in funds it has not yet deployed. On Thursday, the company needs to prove that this caution has not held back sales. With shares trading close to all-time highs, there is limited tolerance for unclear results.

To what extent is optimism already priced into Apple’s shares?

Apple (AAPL) ended Friday, July 24, at $333.02, rising 3.53% during the session. This puts Apple’s valuation close to $4.9 trillion, or about 40 times its trailing earnings. For 2026, Apple’s price increase stands at around 22.5%, compared to 8.3% for the S&P 500. The Nasdaq Composite, another main benchmark for Apple, is up 7.5%. Expectations remain high. Apple Investor Relations

Which figures does Apple need to exceed on July 30?

Apple is set to announce fiscal third-quarter earnings on Thursday, July 30, at 5 p.m. ET. Market consensus puts revenue between $108.1 billion and approximately $108.8 billion. Earnings per share forecasts are concentrated at $1.88 to $1.89. The company projected sales growth of 14% to 17% and a gross margin between 47.5% and 48.5%, which suggests quarterly revenue of about $107.2 billion to $110.0 billion. A revenue beat may not be enough to satisfy investors if September guidance is not strong. Apple

Does demand for iPhone 17 upgrades remain robust?

iPhone revenue reached $56.99 billion in the latest quarter, climbing 22% from a year earlier. Apple attributed much of the growth to higher sales of Pro models. Visible Alpha projects June-quarter iPhone revenue at around $53.0 billion. Early data indicates global smartphone shipments declined 11% in the same period. Apple further noted that March-quarter iPhone sales were restricted by shortages of advanced processors. As a result, some of the gains in June may reflect improved supply rather than stronger demand. SEC

Is Apple truly seeing a rebound in China?

Revenue from Greater China totaled $20.50 billion in the last quarter, marking a 28% increase. According to IDC, Apple’s shipments in the June quarter rose 24.4%, bringing its market share up to 18.1%. The overall market declined by 4.3%, while Huawei maintained a 22.6% market share. That marks significant progress. Still, steady pricing and promotional efforts may have led to purchases being accelerated. Apple Intelligence secured regulatory registration in China, although a commercial release date has not been announced. SEC

Will Services continue to grow their profits?

Services revenue totaled $30.98 billion in the latest quarter, up 16% from a year earlier. The division’s gross margin reached 76.7%, far above the 38.7% margin for Products. Visible Alpha projects about $31.4 billion in Services revenue for this quarter. Increased sales from advertising, the App Store, and cloud services propelled the growth. However, court decisions and regulation regarding the App Store continue to pose risks. As a result, durability is just as critical as headline expansion. SEC

Are rising memory expenses and tariffs set to pressure gross margins?

Apple projected a gross margin for the June quarter between 47.5% and 48.5%, down from 49.3% in the March quarter. According to its filing, the company anticipates increasing cost pressures from advanced semiconductors, NAND, and DRAM. The filing also points out ongoing uncertainty regarding future tariffs and does not provide a single forecast for the June period. A gross margin result at the top of the range would indicate strong pricing and product mix, while a lower outcome, coupled with cautious commentary, could quickly rekindle worries about costs. FXCM Markets

Is Apple’s approach to AI starting to have a significant financial impact?

Apple’s research and development spending rose 34% in the March quarter to $11.42 billion. The company does not break out its AI-related expenses, combining all R&D in a single figure. Developer trials for Siri AI began on key platforms as of June 8. Broader English-language beta access is planned later in 2026. After China’s regulatory clearance, a major barrier was cleared but no official launch date has been set. The focus now shifts to how Apple will monetize its AI efforts. The company needs to ensure its AI initiatives drive upgrades, customer retention and growth in Services revenue. SEC

What portion of the backing is provided by cash and share repurchases?

Apple reported $146.6 billion in cash and securities as of March 28. Debt and commercial paper stood at $84.7 billion, putting net cash near $61.9 billion. In April, the board approved a further $100 billion for share buybacks. The company also raised its quarterly dividend by 4% to $0.27 per share. Apple spent $11.0 billion on buybacks in the March quarter. The $100 billion figure represented about 2% of Apple’s market value as of July 24. While buybacks boost EPS, they are not a remedy for weak revenue. SEC

What can investors anticipate during the CEO transition?

Thursday’s update comes five weeks ahead of John Ternus taking over as CEO on September 1. Tim Cook will shift to executive chairman, ensuring ongoing strategic alignment. This is likely Cook’s last quarterly earnings call as CEO. Investors are expected to question Ternus about AI investment, product cycles and acquisitions. The announcement of the leadership change did not include updated financial guidance. Apple

Shan Ahmed Khan is a senior markets reporter at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, technology and macroeconomic trends. A graduate of the Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS), he previously worked in investment research and market analysis. His coverage helps readers understand the key developments influencing global financial markets and emerging industries.

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