Applied Digital Corporation (NASDAQ: APLD) heads into the next U.S. trading session with investors focused on one big question: can the company keep executing its high-speed buildout of AI-optimized data center capacity—without letting financing costs and counterparty risk overwhelm the story?
As of the most recent trading session (the early-close day on Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025), APLD last traded at $25.72.
First, a quick market-timing note for Dec. 26
If you’re preparing “before the open,” it’s worth remembering the holiday schedule: U.S. markets closed on Christmas Day (Dec. 25) and had an early close on Dec. 24. The next full trading day is Friday, Dec. 26, 2025. [1]
That means most price discovery into Friday’s open will reflect (1) any late-breaking corporate headlines, (2) macro sentiment around the “AI infrastructure” trade, and (3) liquidity dynamics typical of post-holiday sessions.
Why APLD is a “watchlist” stock right now
Applied Digital has pivoted from being viewed primarily through a crypto-mining/hosting lens to being priced more like a power-and-land advantaged AI data center developer. The core bull thesis is straightforward:
- Long-dated contracted revenue via hyperscale leases
- Speed-to-power execution in North Dakota campuses
- Structural demand tailwinds from AI compute buildouts
The market’s counterargument is also straightforward:
- These campuses are capital intensive, and APLD’s cost of capital can swing the equity narrative quickly.
- Tenant concentration and “who exactly is on the other side of these leases” remains a central risk debate in the broader AI data center ecosystem. [2]
The biggest contracted-revenue headlines: two hyperscaler relationships
1) Polaris Forge 2: the ~$5 billion hyperscaler lease
Applied Digital announced an approximately $5 billion contracted-revenue lease tied to 200 MW of critical IT load at Polaris Forge 2 (Harwood, North Dakota), structured over an estimated ~15-year term. The tenant also holds a right of first refusal for an additional 800 MW, which represents the site’s full 1 GW expansion potential—a key detail investors track because it defines how large this campus could become if demand stays strong. [3]
The company has said initial capacity is expected to begin coming online in 2026, ramping toward the full 200 MW. [4]
2) Polaris Forge 1: CoreWeave capacity ramps and “Ready for Service” milestones
CoreWeave (often described as an AI-focused cloud provider) has become a marquee tenant relationship for APLD. Reuters previously reported Applied Digital signed two 15-year leases with CoreWeave expected to generate about $7 billion over the lease term. [5]
In August, Applied Digital then finalized an additional CoreWeave lease for 150 MW, bringing the Polaris Forge 1 campus’ total contracted critical IT capacity with CoreWeave to 400 MW and total anticipated contracted lease revenue to ~$11 billion, according to the company. [6]
More recently, Applied Digital reported execution milestones at Polaris Forge 1 Building 1:
- Phase I Ready for Service (50 MW) in October 2025 [7]
- Phase II Ready for Service (second 50 MW) in November 2025, bringing Building 1 to 100 MW energized capacity [8]
For the stock, these “RFS” updates matter because APLD is essentially selling credibility: timelines, commissioning, and delivery consistency.
The latest December financing headlines investors are digesting
A new $100 million development loan facility (Macquarie)
On Dec. 18, 2025, Applied Digital announced it entered into a loan facility with Macquarie Group’s Commodities and Global Markets business to fund pre-lease development costs—i.e., early-stage sourcing, planning, and development for new campuses. The company also said it is in advanced-stage negotiations with another investment-grade hyperscaler for multiple campuses, and that the initial $100 million in draws is intended to support development activities tied to those campuses. [9]
This is a meaningful “pipeline signal,” but it’s also a reminder that APLD’s model requires steady access to capital markets and structured financing.
Macquarie Asset Management: the larger strategic capital partner
In November, Applied Digital said it expected $787.5 million in additional funding under its previously disclosed perpetual preferred equity financing facility of up to $5.0 billion with Macquarie Asset Management, with those draws expected to be completed by the end of that month. [10]
Applied Digital described planned use of proceeds as:
- $450 million toward completing Polaris Forge 2 buildout
- $337.5 million into Polaris Forge 1 (subject to conditions including the senior secured notes closing) [11]
Separately, reporting around the broader Macquarie partnership has described an investment structure that includes Macquarie taking a stake in the HPC segment alongside project funding commitments. [12]
The high-profile debt deal: $2.35 billion senior secured notes at 9.25%
Applied Digital also priced a $2.35 billion offering of 9.250% senior secured notes due 2030 (issued at 97%) through a subsidiary, with proceeds intended to fund construction and related expenses at Polaris Forge 1 facilities and refinance certain obligations, among other uses. [13]
This is where the bull/bear debate gets sharper:
- Bulls see it as de-risking construction financing for near-term leased capacity.
- Bears see a very expensive coupon that can pressure equity returns if ramps slip or if refinancing windows tighten.
Fitch also published a credit view tied to the notes and referenced the final 9.25% coupon in its discussion. [14]
Next major catalyst: earnings after the close on Jan. 7, 2026
Applied Digital has scheduled its fiscal Q2 2026 results (quarter ended Nov. 30, 2025) for Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2026, with the release planned after market close and a conference call at 5:00 p.m. ET. [15]
Even though that’s not “tomorrow,” it’s the next high-impact date that can reset sentiment and valuation.
What investors should watch closely on that call
Expect the market to focus less on headline revenue and more on these specifics:
- Lease-revenue ramp timing
APLD has discussed lease revenues ramping as equipment installation completes, so investors will look for updated ramp cadence and any commissioning/fit-out timing changes. [16] - Capex and funding runway
With multiple funding sources (preferred equity, notes, development loans), the key is whether the company signals enough liquidity to hit 2026–2027 delivery targets without surprise dilution or punitive debt. - Polaris Forge buildout progress
Updates on Polaris Forge 1 Buildings 2–3 timelines and Polaris Forge 2 phase timing will likely drive the narrative more than near-term EPS. - Any clarity on “additional hyperscaler” negotiations
The Dec. 18 development facility explicitly referenced advanced negotiations with another investment-grade hyperscaler—any concrete update could move the stock. [17]
The last reported quarter: strong growth, but profitability still a work-in-progress
In fiscal Q1 2026 (reported Oct. 9, 2025), Applied Digital posted:
- Revenue of $64.2 million, up 84% year-over-year [18]
- Net loss attributable to common stockholders of $27.8 million [19]
- Commentary pointing to revenue contributions from tenant fit-out services related to its HPC hosting business [20]
The market reaction at the time underscored a recurring APLD theme: investors are often willing to tolerate near-term losses if delivery milestones keep landing and contracted-revenue visibility keeps expanding. [21]
Analyst forecasts and price targets: bullish consensus, wide dispersion
Across major “consensus” aggregators, APLD’s Wall Street outlook leans positive, but the spread is wide—typical for a high-beta, execution-driven infrastructure buildout.
- MarketScreener shows a “BUY” mean consensus from 10 analysts with an average target price of $43.70 (vs. last close $25.72), with a high target of $56 and low of $39. [22]
- TipRanks lists an average target of $42.78 based on 10 analysts, also reflecting a bullish skew. [23]
How to read this: targets are effectively “execution scorecards.” If Polaris Forge commissioning stays on schedule and funding stays orderly, bulls argue the stock can re-rate toward those targets. If execution slips, the equity can de-rate quickly due to leverage and the cost of capital.
APLD risk checklist before the Dec. 26 open
Here are the key risks most likely to influence the stock’s next move—especially in thin post-holiday liquidity:
1) Execution risk (build schedule and commissioning)
APLD’s valuation is highly sensitive to whether it hits “ready-for-service” and ramp milestones—because that’s what converts future contracted revenue into present cash flow. [24]
2) Financing and cost-of-capital risk
The company has secured large pools of capital, but at terms that investors will watch carefully, especially after a 9.25% coupon on the 2030 notes. [25]
3) Tenant concentration and counterparty risk
With major capacity tied to a small number of large counterparties, investors debate tenant credit and “single-customer dependency” more intensely than they would for diversified REIT-like models. [26]
4) Volatility risk
Data providers tracking APLD highlight a very high beta profile and meaningful volatility—important if you’re planning around a single session’s open/close dynamics. [27]
What could move APLD specifically on Dec. 26
Going into Friday’s open, the most realistic near-term catalysts are headline-driven:
- Any follow-up disclosure about the Macquarie development loan draws or new campus activity [28]
- Any lease/tenant update (especially confirmation of additional hyperscaler signings)
- Any financing clarification (final terms, closings, or conditions) tied to the broader buildout plan [29]
- Broader sentiment around AI infrastructure and hyperscale capex narratives
Bottom line
Ahead of the Dec. 26, 2025 opening bell, Applied Digital stock remains a high-conviction, high-volatility expression of the AI data center buildout theme—backed by headline-grabbing long-term leases and visible commissioning milestones, but paired with a capital stack and execution demands that leave little room for error. [30]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investing in equities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. ir.applieddigital.com, 4. ir.applieddigital.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. ir.applieddigital.com, 7. ir.applieddigital.com, 8. ir.applieddigital.com, 9. ir.applieddigital.com, 10. ir.applieddigital.com, 11. ir.applieddigital.com, 12. www.barrons.com, 13. ir.applieddigital.com, 14. www.fitchratings.com, 15. ir.applieddigital.com, 16. ir.applieddigital.com, 17. ir.applieddigital.com, 18. ir.applieddigital.com, 19. ir.applieddigital.com, 20. ir.applieddigital.com, 21. www.investopedia.com, 22. www.marketscreener.com, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. ir.applieddigital.com, 25. ir.applieddigital.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. ir.applieddigital.com, 29. ir.applieddigital.com, 30. ir.applieddigital.com
