Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) ended Monday’s session (December 15, 2025) higher, then eased slightly in extended trading as investors digested a fresh wave of analyst commentary tied to the 2026 outlook for wafer fabrication equipment (WFE)—one of the most closely watched demand indicators in the semiconductor supply chain.
AMAT stock price after the bell: where shares stand tonight
Applied Materials stock closed at $261.27 at 4:00 p.m. ET, up $2.06 (+0.79%) on the day. During the regular session, shares traded between $259.79 and $265.69, with about 6.19 million shares changing hands. [1]
After the bell, AMAT slipped to about $260.50 (down $0.77 / -0.29%) as of 7:59 p.m. ET in after-hours trading. [2]
Extended-hours moves can be noisy because trading volumes are typically lighter than during the regular session. Still, after-hours action often reflects how investors are reacting in real time to research notes, late headlines, and positioning ahead of the next day’s open.
Why Applied Materials stock moved today: the analyst catalyst
Jefferies: price target lifted to $360 on AI-driven capex thesis
A major headline for AMAT watchers on December 15 was Jefferies raising its price target on Applied Materials to $360 from $260 while reiterating a Buy rating. The firm’s rationale centers on the view that artificial intelligence should lift semiconductor capital spending, supporting demand across leading-edge logic, DRAM, and advanced packaging—all areas where Applied Materials has significant exposure. [3]
That “AI capex” narrative matters because it pushes the conversation beyond a single-quarter earnings beat/miss and toward the multi-year spending cycle that typically drives premium valuations in semiconductor equipment.
Wells Fargo: target to $290; “discount to peers” and 2026 WFE positioning
Separately, Wells Fargo raised its AMAT price target to $290 from $255 and maintained an Overweight rating, pointing investors back to the company’s newly published FY2025 10‑K and arguing Applied continues to trade at a discount to peers while remaining positioned for potential 2026 WFE outperformance. [4]
Taken together, these two notes helped frame Monday’s price action: not a dramatic rerating in one session, but a renewed “buy-the-cycle” argument for semiconductor equipment as 2026 planning ramps.
Today’s broader outlook: WFE demand, DRAM strength, and the China question
A widely circulated analysis published Monday emphasized that Applied’s latest WFE portfolio is seeing increased demand tied to AI and high-performance computing, and highlighted management’s view that leading-edge foundry/logic, DRAM, and advanced packaging could be among the fastest-growing segments of the WFE market. [5]
The same analysis also underscored two key counterweights investors continue to debate:
- Trade restrictions and mix headwinds constrained growth in fiscal 2025, according to the write-up. [6]
- China remains a swing factor: it cited that China’s share of total systems and services revenue declined (to 28% for FY2025 and 25% in fiscal Q4) and suggested expectations for lower WFE spending in China in 2026 without meaningful easing in restrictions. [7]
That last point is especially relevant for AMAT because the stock can react sharply to any perceived change in export rules, customer qualification pathways, or visibility into China-related demand.
Fresh fundamentals from the FY2025 10‑K: what investors are parsing right now
Although the 10‑K was filed late last week, it remained a focus in today’s analyst commentary—and it includes several datapoints that can shape “quality of demand” conversations into Tuesday’s open.
Remaining performance obligations and contract liabilities
In the filing, Applied reported that as of October 26, 2025, remaining unsatisfied performance obligations on longer-duration contracts were approximately $1.7 billion, with about 53% expected to be recognized within 12 months. [8]
It also showed contract liabilities of $2.566 billion at fiscal year-end (down from $2.849 billion the prior year), along with explanatory detail on what drove the change. [9]
Why this matters: investors often use these items as “texture” around backlog, delivery timing, and revenue visibility—especially in a cyclical industry.
Share repurchases and dividends: capital return remains a central pillar
Applied’s 10‑K reiterates the scale of shareholder returns:
- The board approved a $10.0B repurchase authorization in March 2025, supplementing a prior authorization; about $14.0B remained available for future repurchases as of October 26, 2025. [10]
- For fiscal 2025, the company disclosed $4.893B of stock repurchases (including the excise tax effect) and detailed per-share averages. [11]
- The filing also describes fiscal 2025 dividend actions, including three quarterly dividends at $0.46 per share (and one at $0.40) and total dividends paid of $1.4B for the fiscal year. [12]
In other words, even when equipment cycles wobble, capital return is part of the AMAT “support story” many institutions anchor on.
Risk backdrop: export controls remain a live sensitivity
The 10‑K also references regulatory and compliance risks, including that Applied has received requests for information (including subpoenas) related to areas such as China customer shipments and export controls compliance. [13]
This is not a new theme for the industry—but it’s a reminder that “headline risk” can reprice equipment stocks quickly, sometimes independent of near-term fundamentals.
Dividend watch: what shareholders should know heading into Tuesday
A company press release carried on Nasdaq on December 12 stated the board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.46 per share, payable March 12, 2026, to shareholders of record as of Feb. 19, 2026. [14]
The same release noted that the dividend is part of Applied’s capital allocation strategy, referencing the March 2025 dividend increase to $0.46 and highlighting substantial shareholder distributions and remaining buyback capacity. [15]
For “before the open” positioning, dividend headlines typically don’t move semicap stocks day-to-day—but they can matter for longer-horizon holders assessing total-return profile versus peers.
Forecasts and price targets: what Wall Street is signaling tonight
The most market-moving “forecast” updates today were the new/updated targets:
For context, broader consensus compilations still show a wide range of outcomes. One widely used aggregation lists an average price target around $242 with the high end at $360 and low end at $150, illustrating how divided forecasts can be depending on assumptions for AI-driven WFE growth, China trajectory, and cycle durability. [18]
The takeaway for Tuesday: investors may focus less on the “average target” and more on whether more firms begin revising 2026 assumptions upward, which can create a rolling wave of target increases across the equipment complex.
Sector tape check: AMAT vs. peers and the broader market today
Semiconductor equipment traded in a market that was not decisively risk-on. One MarketWatch recap noted that Lam Research outperformed on the day even as the S&P 500 and Dow finished slightly lower, while Applied Materials posted a more modest gain. [19]
A separate report tied Jefferies’ equipment-sector enthusiasm to AI-driven demand expectations and noted upgrades/target changes across multiple chip gear names—not just AMAT—adding to the “cycle is still alive” narrative. [20]
What to watch before the stock market opens Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025
Here are the practical checkpoints investors are likely to monitor ahead of the bell—especially if you trade AMAT around news-driven volatility.
1) Pre-market reaction to today’s research notes
The key question isn’t whether Jefferies and Wells Fargo were positive (they were), but whether:
- other sell-side firms echo the 2026 WFE upside thesis, and
- pre-market trading shows institutions adding exposure across semicap names.
2) A data-heavy macro backdrop that can move high-multiple tech
Macro releases matter for AMAT because semiconductor equipment stocks are sensitive to interest-rate expectations and risk appetite.
Reuters described markets positioning for a busy week of key economic data that could influence rate expectations. [21]
A market calendar for Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025 highlights items including Housing Starts and Building Permits among scheduled U.S. releases. [22]
Another market update previewed Tuesday as a potentially pivotal day with multiple major indicators in focus, including employment and demand signals. [23]
If yields move meaningfully pre-market, AMAT and its peer group can react—even without company-specific headlines.
3) Fed and rates narrative—still in the background after last week’s decision
A Reuters report Monday quoted New York Fed President John Williams saying policy is in a good position following the Fed’s December 10 rate cut, while discussing the path for inflation and growth into 2026 and beyond. [24]
That matters because semicap valuations are often a tug-of-war between growth optimism (AI capex) and discount-rate pressure (rates/inflation).
4) China-sensitive headlines
China macro and policy headlines can filter quickly into U.S.-listed chip names—especially equipment suppliers with meaningful exposure. Reuters coverage Monday pointed to signs of weaker China growth momentum, which can influence the broader global demand narrative. [25]
Even if this is not AMAT-specific, it can affect sentiment across the semiconductor supply chain.
5) Next major company-specific catalyst: earnings timing
Applied Materials’ next earnings date is estimated (based on historical scheduling) for Feb. 12, 2026, meaning Tuesday is more likely to trade on analyst framing, macro data, and sector sentiment rather than a near-term earnings catalyst. [26]
Bottom line for AMAT heading into Tuesday’s open
Applied Materials stock closed Monday at $261.27 and traded slightly lower after hours near $260.50, as the market absorbed bullish sell-side updates—notably Jefferies’ $360 target and Wells Fargo’s $290 target—that lean into an AI-driven WFE expansion narrative for 2026. [27]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.tipranks.com, 4. www.tipranks.com, 5. www.nasdaq.com, 6. www.nasdaq.com, 7. www.nasdaq.com, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. www.sec.gov, 14. www.nasdaq.com, 15. www.nasdaq.com, 16. www.tipranks.com, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.marketwatch.com, 20. www.investors.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. tradingeconomics.com, 23. ng.investing.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. stockanalysis.com
