AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ: APP) is trading around $724.62 per share as of Wednesday, December 10, 2025, after a 5.05% jump in the last session and a year‑to‑date gain of roughly 110% that has turned the AI adtech specialist into one of 2025’s standout performers in the S&P 500. [1]
Behind the move is a powerful combination of explosive earnings growth, a bold pivot away from gaming into pure AI advertising, and a wave of bullish analyst upgrades and institutional buying—tempered by concerns about valuation, insider selling and regulatory risk.
AppLovin (APP) Stock Today: Price, Performance and Key Metrics
- Latest price: About $724.62 per share, after a 5.05% gain in the previous trading session. [2]
- Market cap: Roughly $245 billion, placing AppLovin among the larger U.S. software and adtech names. [3]
- Valuation: Trailing P/E close to 90 and a PEG ratio around 3.7, signalling investors are paying a premium for growth. [4]
- Volatility:Beta ≈ 2.5, meaning the stock tends to move more than twice as much as the broader market. [5]
- 52‑week range: From about $200.50 to $745.61 per share. [6]
- Status: The stock has more than doubled in 2025 and recently joined the S&P 500, according to Investor’s Business Daily, after a breakout from a technical base. [7]
In short: AppLovin has rapidly gone from under‑the‑radar adtech to front‑page AI darling, with a stock price that reflects sky‑high expectations.
Q3 2025 Earnings: AI Engine Drives 68% Revenue Growth
The foundation for the latest rally is a blockbuster third quarter reported on November 5, 2025.
Key highlights from Q3 2025:
- Revenue: About $1.405 billion, up 68% year over year, driven primarily by the software platform (AXON, MAX, Adjust, Wurl). [8]
- Net income from continuing operations: Around $836 million, up roughly 93% year over year, implying a net margin above 50% and placing AppLovin among the most profitable names in programmatic advertising. [9]
- Adjusted EBITDA: Approximately $1.16 billion, up about 79% year over year, with an EBITDA margin of ~82%, an unusually high level even among high‑margin software businesses. [10]
- Cash flow: Net cash from operating activities and free cash flow both came in near $1.05 billion for the quarter. [11]
- Capital returns: AppLovin repurchased and withheld about 1.3 million shares of Class A stock in Q3, spending roughly $571 million, leaving about 339 million Class A and B shares outstanding at quarter‑end. [12]
Analysts at several outlets have described Q3 as a “double beat” on both revenue and earnings, with AppLovin outpacing Wall Street expectations and reinforcing its reputation as an AI‑driven profit machine. [13]
Guidance and Near‑Term Outlook: 2025–2026
Management’s outlook and consensus estimates suggest the growth story isn’t over—though the bar is now high.
According to summaries of company guidance and S&P Global consensus data: [14]
- Q4 2025 company guidance
- Revenue:$1.57–$1.60 billion
- Adjusted EBITDA:$1.29–$1.32 billion
- Implied EBITDA margin: Roughly 82–83%
- Street expectations (approximate)
- Q4 revenue consensus: Around $1.605 billion
- Q1 2026 revenue consensus: Around $1.689 billion
- Q4 EPS consensus: Just under $2.93
- Q1 2026 EPS consensus: A bit above $3.16
MarketBeat’s analyst roundup notes that AppLovin’s most recent quarter beat on both EPS ($2.45 vs. $2.34 consensus) and revenue ($1.41B vs. $1.34B), and that analysts on average expect the company to post full‑year EPS around $6.87 for the current year. [15]
Investor’s Business Daily adds that Wall Street is modelling triple‑digit profit growth for 2025, with estimates pointing to more than 100% year‑over‑year earnings expansion, making APP one of the strongest growth stories in its coverage universe. [16]
Strategic Pivot: From Gaming to Pure‑Play AI Ad Platform
One reason AppLovin’s margins look so unusual is that the company has radically simplified its business model.
In July 2025, AppLovin completed the sale of its mobile gaming business to Tripledot Studios for $400 million in cash plus equity equaling roughly 20% of Tripledot’s fully diluted stake. The deal included 10 internal game studios and popular franchises such as Wordscapes, Project Makeover and Cooking Madness. [17]
CEO Adam Foroughi framed the move as a way to “streamline the company to its core business” and fully focus on the opportunities in its AI‑driven adtech platform. [18]
That core platform now centres on four main pieces: [19]
- AXON / AXON 2: AppLovin’s real‑time AI optimization engine, embedded in its demand‑side platform AppDiscovery.
- MAX: An in‑app bidding solution that runs real‑time auctions to maximise ad monetisation for app publishers.
- Adjust: A mobile measurement and analytics suite used for attribution, cohort analysis and campaign optimisation.
- Wurl: A connected‑TV platform that distributes streaming video content and sells CTV ad inventory.
Research from CrispIdea describes AXON 2 as a high‑performance AI engine that: [20]
- Processes over two million ad auctions per second
- Learns from data on over one billion devices
- Uses real‑time machine learning to decide which ad to show, to whom, when and at what price
The result, according to that analysis, is lower customer acquisition costs and higher conversion rates for advertisers, with AppLovin’s software platform revenue growing dramatically faster than traditional ad channels.
Taken together, the gaming divestiture, AXON 2, and the high‑margin software model explain why AppLovin’s financial profile now looks more like a hyper‑profitable infrastructure software company than a cyclical mobile‑games publisher.
Fresh News as of December 10, 2025: Why APP Is in Focus
Several developments in early December have kept AppLovin in the headlines and helped push the stock to new highs.
1. Strong price action and new highs
Smartkarma reports that APP’s stock price recently surged to $724.62, marking a 5.05% daily gain on volume near 3.9 million shares, with year‑to‑date performance around +113%. [21]
Technical research from Investor’s Business Daily notes that AppLovin recently broke out of a double‑bottom base and traded in a buy zone, with the stock logging eight consecutive up days and featuring on growth lists such as the IBD 50 and IBD Tech Leaders. [22]
2. Positive investor‑conference commentary
In early December, AppLovin participated in two high‑profile events:
- The UBS Global Technology and AI Conference in Scottsdale, Arizona (December 2). [23]
- The Nasdaq 53rd Investor Conference in London (fireside chat on December 9). [24]
Yahoo Finance’s news feed notes that AppLovin shares rose about 3.6% intraday following a positive update at an investor conference, reinforcing confidence in the company’s growth trajectory and AI strategy. [25]
3. “Merchant boom” and e‑commerce momentum
A Benzinga piece titled “AppLovin’s Merchant Boom Hints At Q4 Upside” describes a sharp jump in merchants adopting AppLovin’s Axon ad technology, particularly in e‑commerce and direct‑to‑consumer campaigns. The article suggests that this surge in merchant adoption could set up an upside surprise versus Q4 guidance, especially if higher‑spending advertisers ramp up budgets into year‑end. [26]
This dovetails with other marketing‑industry analysis highlighting AppLovin as an increasingly important channel for DTC brands, with strong performance and “Meta‑like” results at lower cost in some campaigns. [27]
4. Heavy institutional interest and new positions
MarketBeat’s news stream shows a steady drumbeat of institutional filings:
- On December 10, WINTON Group Ltd disclosed purchasing 6,578 APP shares, with the same filing summarising multiple recent price‑target hikes from major brokerages. [28]
- Earlier December filings show additional purchases and position increases by firms such as Federated Hermes, Marshall Wace, Amundi and others, alongside some profit‑taking by other asset managers. [29]
MarketBeat estimates that institutional investors now control roughly 42% of AppLovin’s float, while insiders still own about 13.7%. [30]
What Wall Street Analysts Are Saying About AppLovin Stock
Consensus ratings and targets
Several data providers give slightly different snapshots, but overall sentiment is strongly positive:
- MarketBeat (Dec 10, 2025):
- 24 analysts covering APP
- 19 Buy, 4 Hold, 1 Sell
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”
- Average 12‑month price target: about $679.85
- Key recent raises include Benchmark to $700, Wedbush to $800, Piper Sandler to $800, and recent boosts from Scotiabank and Morgan Stanley into the $720–$750 range. [31]
- StockAnalysis.com:
- 18 analysts, “Strong Buy” consensus rating
- Average target: roughly $708.67
- Target range: low $435, median $740, high $860. [32]
- TipRanks:
- 20 Wall Street analysts over the last three months
- Average price target: about $751.50, with a high of $860 and low of $650; when compiled, that represented roughly 9% upside from a share price near $692. [33]
- Zacks Investment Research:
- AppLovin’s Average Brokerage Recommendation (ABR) equates to a “Buy”, though Zacks warns that brokerage recommendations overall tend to be skewed bullish. [34]
High‑conviction bullish research
Beyond the consensus numbers, several in‑depth pieces lean strongly bullish:
- A Seeking Alpha deep dive, “AppLovin: A High‑Growth AI Advertising Platform With Multi‑Year Runway,” rates APP a “Strong Buy” and sets a $915 price target, implying roughly 30%+ upside from prices at the time of publication. The author points to the AXON engine, margin profile and free‑cash‑flow generation as the main pillars of the bull case. [35]
- Insider‑focused and hedge‑fund commentary (for example, the recurring “Bull Case Theory” pieces from Insider Monkey) highlight AppLovin as a favourite among growth‑oriented funds, with over 100 hedge‑fund portfolios reported to hold APP as of recent quarters. [36]
- Forbes has published multiple articles arguing that AppLovin offers better value than Shopify, citing stronger profitability and growth at a relatively lower valuation and noting that APP has quietly outperformed Shopify in 2025. [37]
Quant, Technical and Algorithmic Forecasts
Alongside human analysts, a range of quantitative and algorithmic models tracks APP:
- Moving‑average & technical models (Intellectia.ai):
A recent update describes AppLovin’s overall moving‑average setup as “more bullish” as of December 10, 2025, with three positive signals and one negative. [38] - Short‑term price predictions (CoinCodex):
- Tomorrow’s projected price: Around $717.12
- Next week: Modelled to edge slightly lower
- Near‑term downside scenario: A possible pullback to about $684 by December 14, implying around a 5–6% decline from current levels. [39]
- Long‑term scenarios (24/7 Wall St.):
A December 5 article lays out 2025–2030 price scenarios for AppLovin, discussing how AI adoption, competitive dynamics and valuation multiples could influence returns over the rest of the decade. The tone is more balanced, highlighting both substantial upside potential and the risk that today’s premium multiples compress if growth slows. [40]
These models are not guarantees, but they reinforce a key theme: the market expects continued growth, yet also recognizes the risk of near‑term volatility after such a big run.
Valuation, Insider Selling and Risk Factors
Despite the rosy growth picture, several red flags and risks deserve attention.
1. Premium valuation
Across multiple sources, APP is clearly priced as a top‑tier AI winner:
- MarketBeat lists a P/E near 88, a P/E/G ratio around 3.7, and an enterprise value above $230 billion. [41]
- Lightyear data pegs AppLovin’s market cap around $245 billion and P/E just over 90 as of December 10. [42]
A recent piece from The Motley Fool on overextended AI stocks points out that one S&P 500 AI favourite trades around 160 times sales and notes AppLovin as the next closest stock by that metric, underscoring how stretched valuations have become at the very top of the AI trade. [43]
In plain language: AppLovin is priced for near‑perfection. Any disappointment on growth, margins or regulation could trigger sharp pullbacks.
2. Insider selling
MarketBeat’s December 10 note on consensus ratings also highlights significant insider selling: [44]
- Over the last three months, insiders sold about 332,577 shares, worth roughly $195 million.
- The CTO and CEO both executed sales in November at prices well below the current level.
- Even after these sales, insiders still own around 13.66% of the company.
Separately, a Yahoo Finance article from early December described insiders selling approximately US$643 million of shares over the year as a “smart move” given the stock’s explosive appreciation. [45]
Insider selling doesn’t automatically mean trouble—especially after huge gains—but at today’s valuations, it adds to investor caution.
3. Regulatory and legal overhang
In October, Investor’s Business Daily reported that AppLovin’s stock dropped sharply on news of a U.S. SEC probe into the company, linked to its mobile advertising activities. [46]
Details remain limited in public coverage, and investigations can take time to resolve, but for a company that monetises massive volumes of user data, regulatory scrutiny is an unavoidable risk.
Earlier in 2025, 24/7 Wall St. also highlighted that AppLovin’s share price had previously tumbled more than 35% in connection with class‑action lawsuits and short‑seller reports, underscoring how quickly sentiment can swing. [47]
4. Competition and macro risk
Other risks that investors frequently cite:
- Competition: AppLovin increasingly competes with giants such as Meta, Alphabet, Unity, and other adtech platforms. A detailed comparison by CrispIdea positions AppLovin’s AXON 2 as more precise in mobile app performance marketing, but acknowledges that heavyweights like Meta have vastly greater scale and resources. [48]
- Privacy and platform changes: Future changes from Apple (iOS privacy) or Google (Android and Chrome Privacy Sandbox) could impact how AXON 2 accesses and uses data for targeting. [49]
- Ad‑spend cyclicality: Ad budgets are sensitive to economic slowdowns, which can pressure even best‑in‑class platforms.
Bull vs. Bear: How the Story Sets Up After the Rally
Putting it all together, the bull case for AppLovin (APP) as of December 10, 2025, looks roughly like this:
- Explosive, profitable growth: 68% revenue growth and EBITDA margins above 80% are rare, especially at this scale. [50]
- Pure‑play AI adtech: The sale of the gaming business has turned AppLovin into a focused, software‑first platform with powerful network effects. [51]
- AI advantage: AXON 2 gives AppLovin a technological edge in real‑time mobile bidding and performance optimisation, processing millions of auctions per second and learning from data on more than a billion devices. [52]
- Institutional and analyst support: Dozens of analysts rate the stock at Buy or Strong Buy, price targets cluster between $680 and $800, and institutional ownership is rising. [53]
The bear case, however, is equally clear:
- Valuation risk: The stock trades at a premium multiple on earnings, sales and free cash flow; various commentators now list APP among the most expensive AI‑linked stocks in major indices. [54]
- Regulatory overhang: An SEC probe and prior class‑action headlines show that legal and regulatory risks are real, not theoretical. [55]
- Insider selling: Large insider disposals after the run‑up suggest that at least some insiders are happy to crystallise gains at these prices. [56]
- Potential for pullbacks: Short‑term quant models already flag the possibility of a 5–6% near‑term pullback after the recent spike. [57]
Bottom Line: How to Think About AppLovin Stock on December 10, 2025
As of December 10, 2025, AppLovin sits at the crossroads of two massive trends:
- The AI‑powered transformation of digital advertising, where precision, performance and automation are more important than raw scale.
- A late‑cycle AI stock boom, where valuations for the most favoured names have become increasingly stretched.
The core business is clearly firing on all cylinders: the company is growing fast, printing cash, and building a differentiated AI platform in AXON 2. But the stock price already reflects a lot of that good news, and the combination of insider selling, regulatory scrutiny and rich valuation means volatility should be expected.
For readers following APP:
- Bullish investors will likely focus on sustained earnings beats, expanding merchant adoption, and the possibility that AXON 2 becomes a long‑duration growth engine.
- Cautious investors will watch for any slowdown in growth, changes in privacy regulation, signs that ad budgets are softening—or any hint that the AI trade is de‑rating.
Either way, AppLovin has firmly moved into the category of must‑watch AI stocks going into 2026.
References
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