NEW YORK, Feb 4, 2026, 10:00 EST
- AppLovin shares dropped roughly 12% amid a selloff in software stocks and growing investor worries about turmoil in mobile ad tech
- Ad tech rivals like Unity dropped again, pushing the sector deeper into losses following Tuesday’s decline
- AppLovin will release its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings after the U.S. market closes on Feb. 11
AppLovin shares dropped roughly 12% early Wednesday as software stocks took another hit and fresh concerns emerged over AI disrupting mobile ad tech. Unity Software wasn’t spared, sliding about 10%. 1
AppLovin is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Feb. 11, after U.S. markets close, with management hosting a webinar to discuss the figures later that day. Stocks known for volatility often face steeper declines ahead of such major announcements. 2
CloudX, a startup, went into “general availability” on Wednesday, aiming to automate parts of the mobile advertising “stack”—the set of tools that runs, prices, and serves ads inside apps. CEO Jim Payne said there’s only so much a single ad monetization person can handle. He claims CloudX can manage “billions of impressions a day” while remaining “smart at that scale.” 3
The product relies on AI “agents” — software capable of performing tasks with minimal human intervention — powered by large language models. It also incorporates a “trusted execution environment,” a security measure designed to safeguard data during processing, according to AdExchanger.
Investors are jittery over anything hinting at AI-driven disintermediation. AppLovin and Unity earn from ad tools used by app publishers and developers, so even a plausible new rival can rattle sentiment well before grabbing any market share.
On Monday, Benchmark’s Mike Hickey dismissed concerns about Google’s Project Genie, a DeepMind tool that generates game worlds from text and images. “AI-native creation changes how games are built, but not how they are discovered, acquired, or monetized,” he said, maintaining a Buy rating and a $775 price target. Jefferies also stuck with a Buy call, setting an $860 target, according to Barron’s. 4
The case is that AppLovin operates on the monetization end, not the game-engine side. Analysts noted that as cheaper tools churn out more games quickly, the race for users could still boost ad spending and app discovery.
Seeking Alpha contributor Oakoff Investments took a more bullish stance, arguing the market overreacted to both Project Genie and a recent short report. They highlighted AppLovin’s core product, MAX, as still firmly in control. MAX acts as a “mediation” tool, letting app publishers shuffle ad demand among multiple buyers to secure higher prices. 5
Zacks Equity Research, on Nasdaq.com, reported that analysts are forecasting AppLovin to deliver earnings of $2.89 per share on revenue near $1.6 billion this quarter. That projects roughly 67% growth in earnings and about 17% higher revenue compared to the same period last year. 6
There’s a downside scenario that’s far from exotic. A conservative 2026 forecast could trim a stock still trading at a premium. On top of that, platform rule tweaks from Apple or Google might cut into the data advertisers rely on, squeezing ad prices and margins. Then there’s new tech like AI agents, which could commoditize pieces of the current ad-tech workflow sooner than the big players anticipate.
On Feb. 11, investors will zero in on any hints that AI is reshaping the economics of user acquisition — specifically, the costs to attract players and shoppers. They’ll also watch to see if AppLovin detects demand outside mobile gaming that could counteract slumping ad spend in certain areas.
