NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 5:03 p.m. ET — Market Closed [1]
Ares Capital Corporation (NASDAQ: ARCC) heads into the final full week of 2025 with investors focused on two near-term catalysts: a high-yield dividend payment scheduled for next week and a year-end tape shaped by thin liquidity and “Santa Claus rally” seasonality. With U.S. stock markets closed Saturday, ARCC’s latest read-through remains Friday’s session—when the business development company (BDC) finished higher even as major indexes slipped modestly in post-holiday trade. [2]
ARCC stock price: where shares left off before the weekend
ARCC ended Friday’s regular session at $20.20, up about 1% on the day, according to a market recap published by Zacks Equity Research. The move outpaced the S&P 500’s fractional decline and came as the Dow and Nasdaq also edged lower. [3]
In late Friday after-hours trading, ARCC was indicated around $20.22 (as quoted by MarketWatch), a small move that underscores how subdued price action tends to become late in December. [4]
Broader market conditions also matter for income-focused financials like ARCC. Reuters described Friday’s market as “light-volume” and “nearly unchanged,” with strategist Ryan Detrick of Carson Group calling it a pause after a run: “we’re just simply catching our breath today after the holiday.” [5]
Why Ares Capital draws attention at year-end
Ares Capital is the largest publicly traded BDC by market value and operates as a specialty finance lender to U.S. middle-market companies, primarily through secured loans and other credit investments. [6]
That model can look especially attractive when investors are screening for yield late in the year. In a Dec. 27 roundup of high-yield dividend stocks, Motley Fool contributor Matt DiLallo highlighted ARCC’s “monster” yield and noted that the company has delivered 16 years of stable-to-growing dividends. [7]
At the same time, BDC performance often turns on three macro factors investors will be watching into Monday’s open:
- Short-term interest rates (which influence the yield on floating-rate loan portfolios)
- Credit conditions (defaults, non-accruals, and recovery values)
- Market liquidity and risk appetite (especially thin late-December trading)
ARCC’s own disclosures show why rates matter: as of Sept. 30, 2025, 71% of portfolio securities by fair value were floating rate. [8]
Dividend watch: payment arrives Dec. 30
For income investors, the most concrete upcoming date is ARCC’s next dividend payment.
Ares Capital’s board declared a fourth-quarter 2025 dividend of $0.48 per share, payable Dec. 30, 2025, to shareholders of record as of Dec. 15, 2025, according to the company’s SEC filing and accompanying earnings release. [9]
At Friday’s $20.20 close, that $0.48 quarterly dividend annualizes to $1.92 per share, implying a forward yield of roughly 9.5% (before taxes and with no guarantee of future payout levels). [10]
Fundamentals snapshot: NAV, credit quality, and portfolio scale
Investors also continue to anchor on Ares Capital’s latest reported net asset value (NAV) and credit metrics—key reference points for BDC valuation.
In its most recent quarterly release (for the period ending Sept. 30, 2025), Ares Capital reported:
- Net assets per share (NAV): $20.01
- Portfolio investments at fair value: $28.693 billion
- Core EPS: $0.50 for the third quarter
- Debt/equity ratio (net of available cash): 1.02x [11]
On credit, the company disclosed that loans on non-accrual status represented 1.0% of total investments at fair value (and 1.8% at amortized cost) as of Sept. 30, 2025—figures investors typically track for early signals of stress inside middle-market portfolios. [12]
Management also struck an optimistic tone on operating momentum. CEO Kort Schnabel said the company posted “strong third quarter Core EPS” and “another record” NAV per share, pointing to origination activity and credit performance. [13]
CFO Scott Lem emphasized balance-sheet execution and dividend continuity, saying the company’s approach has supported “stable or increased regular quarterly dividends” for more than 16 consecutive years. [14]
Forecasts and analyst views: what Wall Street expects next
In the most recent ARCC trading recap, Zacks Equity Research flagged earnings expectations as the next focal point. The note said investors anticipate ARCC will report EPS of $0.50 in the upcoming quarter, with the consensus estimate calling for $795.35 million in revenue. For the full year, Zacks cited consensus expectations for $2.00 in earnings per share and $3.06 billion in revenue. [15]
On valuation, that same Zacks commentary put ARCC at roughly 10x forward earnings, and noted the stock was trading at a forward P/E premium versus its industry average. [16]
Meanwhile, third-party analyst-consensus trackers show ARCC price targets clustered above the current share price:
- MarketBeat lists an average 12-month price target of $22.25 (with targets ranging from $21.00 to $23.50). [17]
- MarketWatch shows an average target price around $22.64 and an average recommendation of Buy (based on its displayed analyst sample). [18]
Investors should read these targets as directional—useful for framing sentiment—but not as guarantees. Targets can move quickly with changes in rate expectations, credit outlook, or new company guidance.
Market closed now: what ARCC investors should know before Monday’s session
Because U.S. equity markets are closed this weekend, the next chance for ARCC to trade in the regular session is Monday, Dec. 29, during standard U.S. market hours. The NYSE’s core trading session runs 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, with extended sessions available at many brokers. [19]
Here are the key “know before you trade” items heading into the next open:
1) Expect thinner liquidity and wider spreads around the holidays
Late-December markets often see lighter volume, and Reuters highlighted that dynamic in Friday’s post-Christmas session. For a high-yield financial like ARCC, lower liquidity can amplify day-to-day moves even when fundamentals are unchanged. [20]
2) Be careful with extended-hours orders
Nasdaq notes that pre-market trading generally runs 4:00 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. ET and after-hours runs 4:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. ET, and warns these sessions can have less liquidity and “inferior prices,” with limit orders often preferred. [21]
3) Dividend timing is near-term, but the record date has passed
The Dec. 30 dividend is payable to shareholders of record as of Dec. 15 (per the company’s SEC filing). That means trading in the coming week won’t change eligibility for this specific payment—though it can still influence total return via price movement. [22]
4) Watch the calendar into New Year’s
Investopedia reports stocks are scheduled for a full trading day on New Year’s Eve (Dec. 31), and that U.S. stock markets are closed on Jan. 1, 2026 for New Year’s Day. Nasdaq’s 2025 holiday calendar also documents recent year-end schedule adjustments, including the Christmas closure. [23]
Bottom line
Into the final sessions of 2025, Ares Capital (ARCC) sits at the intersection of two themes dominating investor screens: income and rate-sensitive financials. Friday’s outperformance versus a slightly lower broader market kept ARCC on radar in thin holiday trade, while next week’s dividend payment and the approach of the next earnings report keep the focus on coverage, credit trends, and the path of interest rates. [24]
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.nasdaq.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.fool.com, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.nasdaq.com, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. www.sec.gov, 14. www.sec.gov, 15. www.nasdaq.com, 16. www.nasdaq.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.marketwatch.com, 19. www.nyse.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com, 22. www.sec.gov, 23. www.investopedia.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com
