Ares Management (ARES) After the Bell on December 10: S&P 500 Inclusion, Fed Rate Cut and What to Watch Before the December 11, 2025 Open

Ares Management Corporation (NYSE: ARES) heads into Thursday’s session at the center of two powerful stories: its long‑anticipated entry into the S&P 500 and a fresh interest‑rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Together, they’ve turned ARES into one of the most closely watched financial stocks going into the market open on December 11, 2025.

1. How ARES Traded on December 10, 2025

Closing print and intraday action

Regular session close: ARES finished Wednesday, December 10, at $178.28, up 1.18% on the day. ^[1]
Previous close: Tuesday’s close was $176.20, itself a 7.27% surge following the S&P 500 inclusion announcement. ^[2]
Intraday range: On Wednesday, the stock traded between $174.71 and $181.19, reflecting elevated volatility as traders positioned ahead of index changes. ^[3]
Volume: Turnover exploded to roughly 47.9 million shares, compared with typical daily volume around 1.5–2 million shares, highlighting intense institutional activity around the inclusion trade. ^[4]

From Monday’s pre‑announcement close of $164.26 to Wednesday’s $178.28, ARES has gained roughly 8.5% on a close‑to‑close basis, on top of a roughly 7% after‑hours pop immediately following Monday’s news that it would join the S&P 500. ^[5]

After-hours snapshot

MarketBeat’s extended‑trading data showed ARES changing hands around $178.03 in the early evening — a modest 0.17% dip from the regular close as liquidity thinned out. ^[6]

In other words, there was no dramatic reversal after the bell on December 10. The stock essentially consolidated near the highs of its recent rally, keeping the S&P 500 inclusion story very much intact heading into Thursday morning.

2. Why Ares Is Moving: The Three Big Storylines

2.1 S&P 500 inclusion effective before the December 11 open

The single most important near‑term catalyst is straightforward:

Effective date: Ares will be added to the S&P 500 before the market opens on Thursday, December 11, 2025. ^[7]
Replacement: It will replace Kellanova (K), the snack company behind brands like Pringles and Pop‑Tarts, which is being acquired by Mars in a $36 billion deal. ^[8]

The S&P Dow Jones Indices press release confirms that Ares will join the benchmark as part of the Financials sector, with the change becoming effective just before Thursday’s opening bell. ^[9]

Market reaction so far

S&P’s announcement late Monday sent ARES up about 7% in after‑hours trading, as index‑tracking funds and momentum traders piled in. ^[10]
Tuesday’s regular session saw a further 7.27% gain to $176.20. ^[11]
Wednesday built on that with a 1.18% rise and a close at $178.28. ^[12]

Barron’s, MarketWatch and other outlets have noted that Ares had long been one of the largest U.S. companies not in the S&P 500, making its addition a kind of “catch‑up” moment for the index. ^[13]

2.2 A powerful macro backdrop: Fed cut #3

On the same day ARES closed near its recent highs, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds target range to 3.5%–3.75% — its third cut this year. ^[14]

Markets reacted positively:

The S&P 500 rose about 0.7%, finishing just a few points shy of a new all‑time closing high.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained roughly 1.1%, adding nearly 500 points.
The Nasdaq Composite added about 0.3%. ^[15]

Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that further hikes are unlikely in the near term, suggesting policy is now in the “neutral” zone, while Fed projections point to only one additional cut in 2026. ^[16]

For Ares and other alternative asset managers, this backdrop matters because:

Lower rates support risk assets, reduce financing costs and can re‑ignite deal and fundraising activity in private credit and private equity.
At the same time, lower yields can compress spreads over time, potentially moderating return expectations on new loans and strategies.

In the very short term, though, Wednesday’s Fed move mostly reinforced the risk‑on mood surrounding ARES as it prepares to enter the S&P 500.

2.3 Strategic growth moves: logistics scale, new deals and credit deployment

Beyond the index trade, Ares has been busy reshaping and expanding its platform.

Marq Logistics – a global logistics real estate giant

On December 1, Ares announced Marq Logistics, a new global brand consolidating its logistics real estate platforms across the Americas, Europe and Asia‑Pacific. ^[17]

Key facts from the Reuters report and Ares’ own materials:

The integrated platform manages more than 600 million square feet of logistics facilities worldwide. ^[18]
Ares reported about $595 billion in assets under management (AUM), with roughly $110 billion in real estate AUM as of September 30, 2025. ^[19]

The “Our Business” breakdown shows how heavily skewed Ares is toward private credit, with approximately $391.5 billion in credit AUM, alongside $109.5 billion in real estate, $25.1 billion in private equity, $22.9 billion in infrastructure and $38.4 billion in secondaries as of September 30, 2025. ^[20]

Redback Boots: first Australian private equity deal

This week also brought confirmation that Ares has agreed to acquire a majority stake in Redback Boot Company, an Australian work‑boot manufacturer.

The transaction is valued at around AUD 100 million (~$66 million), according to industry estimates cited by MarketScreener and Bloomberg. ^[21]
It marks Ares’ first private equity investment in Australia and is expected to close in Q1 2026, subject to customary approvals. ^[22]

While small relative to Ares’ nearly $600 billion AUM, it underscores the firm’s push into control‑oriented consumer and industrial brands and its global expansion strategy.

Private credit deployment: Aledade facility

On the credit side, Ares recently led a $500 million senior secured credit facility for Aledade, a major primary‑care and accountable care organization platform in the U.S. ^[23]

The facility:

Can be upsized to $650 million,
Provides flexible capital to support Aledade’s growth and transition partners from fee‑for‑service to value‑based care.

It’s a tangible example of the kind of large, relationship‑driven private credit deals that sit at the core of Ares’ growth story.

3. Fresh on December 10: Ratings, Targets and Big‑Money Flows

3.1 BofA lifts target; FactSet and MarketBeat show consensus upside

On December 10, BofA Securities raised its price target for Ares from $200 to $214, while maintaining an overweight‑style rating. A MarketScreener summary notes that analysts polled by FactSet now put Ares’ average target around $185.86, with the BofA call sitting toward the top of the range. ^[24]

MarketBeat’s forecast page, updated December 10, shows: ^[25]

Consensus rating: Moderate Buy
Analyst count: 17 covering analysts
Breakdown:13 Buy ratings, 4 Hold, 0 Sell
Average 12‑month price target:$187.46, implying about 5% upside from roughly $178 per share
Target range: Low of $156 to high of $215

In other words, Wall Street is broadly constructive but not euphoric, with average targets only modestly above current levels even after this week’s rally.

A separate StockstoTrade summary of recent research notes that Goldman Sachs has Ares on its U.S. Conviction List, projecting more than 20% annual earnings growth over the next two years and highlighting a Buy‑type stance with a bullish target around the high $180s. ^[26]

3.2 CalPERS trims stake – but institutional ownership remains deep

Also dated December 10, a MarketBeat “instant alert” flagged that the California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS) reduced its Ares position by 15.5% in the second quarter, selling about 49,349 shares. ^[27]

Key details:

CalPERS now owns 269,561 shares, worth roughly $46.7 million, representing about 0.08% of the company. ^[28]
The article also highlights multiple other institutional investors increasing their stakes, and estimates that institutional investors own just over 50% of Ares’ shares. ^[29]

Insider selling has also been notable: CEO Michael Arougheti sold a sizable block in late November, and insiders have sold around 590,000 shares over the last three months, valued at more than $90 million, although insiders still retain stakes. ^[30]

For traders watching flows, this mix of index‑driven inflows, high institutional ownership, and some insider profit‑taking is important context heading into the S&P 500 debut.

3.3 Fundamental snapshot: growth vs. valuation

MarketBeat’s fundamental summary paints the following picture for Ares: ^[31]

Recent quarter (Q3 2025):
- EPS of $1.19, beating consensus of $1.14.
- Revenue of $1.66 billion, versus estimates around $1.03 billion.
- Net margin around 11.7% and return on equity about 16.3%.
Full‑year 2025 EPS forecast: approximately $5.28 per share.
Valuation:
- Trailing P/E ~75.9,
- P/E/G ratio around 1.27,
- Dividend yield close to 1.9%, based on an annualized payout of roughly $3.38 per share.
- 52‑week range: $110.63 – $200.49.
Fee‑earning AUM: Morningstar data put fee‑earning AUM at roughly $367.6 billion as of end‑September 2025. ^[32]

These numbers help explain why commentary around “premium valuation” has become more pointed: Ares trades at richer multiples than many traditional asset managers, but bulls argue that its faster growth, fee‑heavy business model, and dominant private credit position justify paying up.

4. Regulatory Overhang: BoE Private Markets Stress Test

Ares is not just riding a wave of investor enthusiasm; it’s also under the microscope of global regulators.

The Bank of England has launched a system‑wide exploratory scenario (SWES) focused on private markets, effectively a multi‑year stress test of the $16 trillion private equity and private credit ecosystem. ^[33]

Multiple sources report that Ares has voluntarily agreed to participate, alongside giants like Blackstone, Apollo, KKR and CVC. ^[34]

The goal is to understand:

How private credit and private equity portfolios might behave in a severe downturn,
How stresses could propagate to banks, insurers and pension funds,
Whether growing private credit exposure poses systemic risks.

For Ares, participating can be framed as both a reputational positive (leaning into transparency) and a reminder of regulatory risk hovering over the sector — something medium‑term investors will keep in mind even as the S&P 500 trade dominates short‑term headlines.

5. What to Watch Before the December 11, 2025 Open

With all of that context, here’s what traders and investors will be focusing on between now and the opening bell on Thursday.

5.1 Index flows and opening print

Because Ares joins the S&P 500 before Thursday’s open, index‑tracking strategies need to hold ARES at the open (or very close to it) to minimize tracking error. ^[35]

That sets up several dynamics to watch:

Pre‑market pricing: Any significant gap up or down could reflect last‑minute institutional positioning.
Opening auction: Expect a large imbalance in the NYSE opening cross as passive funds finalize their buys, potentially leading to a spiky opening print.
Early reversals: It’s common for newly added index constituents to see volatility in the first hour as short‑term traders fade or chase the inclusion move.

Given Wednesday’s massive volume and tight after‑hours range, some of this positioning may already be in the tape — but the official inclusion is still likely to bring an additional wave of mechanically driven orders.

5.2 Fed hangover: risk-on or second-guessing?

Markets cheered Wednesday’s rate cut, but the Fed signaled only limited future easing and revealed a deeply split committee with three dissenting votes. ^[36]

Heading into Thursday, watch for:

Whether Treasury yields continue to drift lower or snap back,
Whether the risk‑on tone in financials persists, and
How investors re‑price higher‑beta financial stocks like Ares if macro sentiment shifts overnight.

If the “Fed cut + S&P 500 inclusion” narrative stays intact, ARES could remain a high‑beta way to express confidence in both private credit and broader markets. If risk appetite cools, the same factors that sent the stock higher could amplify declines.

5.3 Reaction to the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference

Ares CEO Michael Arougheti presented earlier today at the Goldman Sachs 2025 U.S. Financial Services Conference (8:40 a.m. ET), with transcripts being distributed through services like MarketScreener, Seeking Alpha and GuruFocus. ^[37]

While full transcripts are paywalled in many places, the appearance itself is a key watchpoint. Market participants will parse:

Any updated commentary on fundraising, deployment and fee‑related earnings,
Management’s tone on credit quality and default trends,
Color around Marq Logistics integration, new deals like Redback Boots and the broader real‑asset strategy,
Remarks on how S&P 500 inclusion might influence Ares’ shareholder base and liquidity.

Unexpectedly optimistic or cautious commentary could still influence the pre‑market tone on Thursday as clips and summaries circulate.

6. Bigger Picture: ARES as It Enters the S&P 500

Bullish angles

Investors who are constructive on Ares generally point to:

Scale and diversification: Close to $595 billion in AUM spanning credit, real estate, private equity, infrastructure and secondaries, with especially strong footing in private credit. ^[38]
Secular growth: Corporates and sponsors are increasingly tapping private lenders instead of banks, positioning Ares to benefit from the expansion of private credit. ^[39]
Real‑asset platform: Marq Logistics gives Ares a globally scaled logistics real estate platform aligned with long‑term trends in e‑commerce, near‑shoring and supply‑chain resilience. ^[40]
Earnings momentum: Recent earnings beats, a forecast of around $5.28 in EPS for 2025, and Street expectations of double‑digit earnings growth in the coming years. ^[41]
Index inclusion tailwind: S&P 500 membership means permanent structural demand from index and benchmark‑aware funds, plus higher visibility with global allocators. ^[42]

Key risks to keep in mind

On the other side, skeptics highlight:

Valuation risk: With a trailing P/E near 76 and premium multiples on most metrics, Ares leaves less room for error if growth disappoints or the credit cycle turns. ^[43]
Credit‑cycle sensitivity: A sharper‑than‑expected increase in defaults or a high‑profile blow‑up in private credit could hit both performance fees and sector sentiment. ^[44]
Regulatory overhang: The BoE’s private markets stress test and growing scrutiny from global regulators underscore that private credit is moving from the shadows into the regulatory spotlight. ^[45]
Post‑inclusion hangover: History shows that some new S&P 500 entrants see post‑event pullbacks once mechanical buying runs its course and short‑term traders take profits.

7. Bottom Line: Where Ares Stands After the Bell on December 10

As of the close on December 10, 2025, Ares Management is:

Trading just below recent highs after a multi‑day surge driven by S&P 500 inclusion,
Supported by a favorable macro backdrop following the Fed’s third rate cut of the year,
Backed by a broadly bullish analyst community with moderate upside baked into 12‑month targets,
Executing on a clear strategy to scale private credit and logistics real estate while pushing into new geographies like Australia,
Yet also operating in a highly scrutinized, richly valued corner of global finance that is now squarely on regulators’ radar.

For anyone following ARES into the December 11 open, the key is to separate short‑term technical flows (index‑driven demand, profit‑taking, volatility) from the long‑term fundamentals around private markets growth, regulation and the credit cycle.