Asia Economic Calendar Today: Australian Trade Surplus and Thai Deflation Set the Tone

Asia’s economic calendar on Thursday, 4 December 2025, is relatively light on headline releases but heavy on implications. Fresh trade and spending numbers out of Australia and ongoing deflation pressures in Thailand – now paired with a jump in consumer confidence – are giving investors new clues about the region’s growth and policy outlook. At the same time, markets are positioning for possible rate moves from both the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Thailand (BoT), while watching the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the U.S. Federal Reserve in the background. ^[1]

What’s on the Asia economic calendar today?

According to S&P Global’s week‑ahead diary, Thursday’s key scheduled macro releases in Asia‑Pacific are: ^[2]

Australia – Balance of Trade (October)
Thailand – Inflation (November)

In practice, Thursday’s data pulse is broader than that. Markets are also digesting:

A strong October household spending print in Australia,
Thai consumer confidence for November, and
Earlier‑in‑the‑week China and Japan PMI signals that continue to colour sentiment today. ^[3]

Here’s how those pieces fit together.

Australia: Trade surplus widens, spending surges, rate‑hike chatter returns

1. October trade surplus: solid, but not explosive

Fresh data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that Australia’s goods trade surplus widened to about A$4.39 billion in October 2025, roughly A$4.385 billion in the official release. ^[4]

Key details: ^[5]

Surplus: A$4.385 billion, above market expectations near A$4.2 billion.
Previous month (September): A surplus around A$3.7–3.9 billion after revisions.
Exports: Up about 3.4% month‑on‑month, following a much stronger jump in September.
Imports: Up around 2.0% month‑on‑month, reflecting still‑resilient domestic demand.

Media reports highlight that a spike in non‑monetary gold exports – just over A$6 billion worth – contributed significantly to October’s surplus, offsetting strong import demand. ^[6]

In other words, the headline trade number tells a familiar story:

External demand is still supportive, helped by commodity exports and gold,
Domestic demand remains healthy enough to pull in more imports, and
Net exports are unlikely to be a drag on Australia’s Q4 GDP and may even add modestly to growth.

2. Market reaction: AUD strength is about more than trade

Despite the beat, FX commentary describes the trade figures as “rather unimpressive” in the context of broader market drivers. The Australian dollar is trading above 0.6600 against the U.S. dollar, near a multi‑week high, but analysts note that the move is driven more by dovish Fed bets and a hawkish‑leaning RBA than by the trade data itself. ^[7]

AUD/USD is holding around 0.66–0.661 in Thursday’s Asian session, extending a two‑week uptrend. ^[8]
Traders continue to price in a high probability of a Fed rate cut on 10 December, pushing the dollar index toward its tenth straight daily decline – the longest losing streak in over 50 years. ^[9]

Put simply, the trade data is supportive for the Aussie, but global rates expectations and RBA rhetoric are doing most of the heavy lifting.

3. The bigger surprise: Australian households go on a spending binge

If there is one Australia data point that really matters today, it’s not trade – it’s household spending.

The ABS’s monthly household spending indicator showed that: ^[10]

Spending jumped 1.3% in October (month‑on‑month),
Reaching A$78.4 billion,
The strongest monthly gain in nearly two years, and
Pushing annual growth to 5.6% from 5.1%.

The surge was driven by year‑end sales events and robust outlays on clothing, footwear, furnishings, electronics, hospitality and events, with major concerts and festivals boosting services demand in big cities. ^[11]

Markets reacted quickly:

Three‑year Australian government bond yields climbed to around 4.03%,
Interest‑rate swaps moved to price in roughly a 50% chance of an RBA rate hike by May 2026, reversing much of the earlier conviction that the next move would be a cut. ^[12]

This comes on top of hotter‑than‑expected inflation in recent months:

Headline CPI: 3.8% year‑on‑year in October,
Trimmed‑mean core inflation: 3.3%, both above the RBA’s 2–3% target band. ^[13]

Taken together, a widening trade surplus + a spending boom + sticky inflation are reshaping the narrative around Australia:

The economy looks more resilient than previously assumed.
The RBA, having already cut rates three times this year to about 3.6%, might pivot back toward a tightening biasin 2026 if demand stays this strong. ^[14]

For Asia‑Pacific watchers, that makes Australian data one of the most important entries on today’s calendar.

Thailand: Eighth month of negative inflation, but confidence climbs

Thailand’s portion of the Asia economic calendar is less about new releases today and more about ongoing digestion of Wednesday’s CPI data and a fresh consumer confidence survey out this morning.

1. November CPI: deflation streak continues

Official numbers from Thailand’s Commerce Ministry and the Bank of Thailand show that headline CPI fell 0.49% year‑on‑year in November, easing from a 0.76% decline in October. ^[15]

Key points:

This is the eighth consecutive month of negative headline inflation and the ninth month in a row below the BoT’s 1–3% target range. ^[16]
The CPI index itself stood around 100.15 in November, according to official briefing materials. ^[17]
Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy, rose 0.66% year‑on‑year, staying modestly positive. ^[18]

The Commerce Ministry expects: ^[19]

Full‑year 2025 headline inflation between ‑0.15% and ‑0.2%,
A move back into 0–1% territory in 2026 as prices stabilize, helped by rising agricultural prices.

Officials stress that despite the negative headline print, this is not “deflation” in the classic, demand‑collapse sense, precisely because core inflation remains positive and domestic demand is being supported by fiscal stimulus.

The backdrop is complicated by severe flooding in southern Thailand, which a leading business group estimates will: ^[20]

Trim 2025 GDP growth by about 0.1–0.2 percentage points,
Cause 20–30 billion baht in lost income this year,
Potentially add around 90 billion baht in further damages in 2026.

The Federation of Thai Industries still projects about 2% GDP growth in 2025, driven largely by exports, but warns that: ^[21]

A strong baht – up roughly 7–8% against the U.S. dollar this year, making it one of Asia’s best‑performing currencies – is hurting exports and tourism, and
Structural challenges mean growth may remain subdued.

Markets now see a meaningful chance of a BoT rate cut at its 17 December meeting, with the governor acknowledging there is room to ease further if needed. ^[22]

2. Consumer confidence hits six‑month high

Against this deflationary backdrop, today’s Thai consumer confidence survey sent a surprisingly upbeat signal.

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce reported that: ^[23]

The Consumer Confidence Index rose to 53.2 in November,
Up from 51.9 in October,
Marking the third consecutive monthly increase and the highest level in six months.

Drivers include:

Government stimulus measures, including a roughly 44 billion baht consumer subsidy programme aimed at boosting spending,
Support for domestic tourism, which is helping offset slower external demand. ^[24]

However, the survey also notes lingering concerns:

The economic recovery still feels slow to many households,
The cost of living remains high, and
Flooding, trade tensions and political frictions with Cambodia are seen as key risks that could undermine confidence. ^[25]

Put together, Thailand’s part of the Asia economic calendar is sending a mixed signal:

Prices are falling, largely because of energy and government support,
Core price pressures are subdued but positive,
Confidence is cautiously improving, thanks to fiscal policy and tourism,
And markets expect monetary policy to loosen further to support growth.

Japan and the broader region: Policy expectations eclipse data

While there are few big Japanese data points on today’s calendar, policy expectations are front and centre.

A Reuters report today, citing government sources, says the Bank of Japan is likely to raise its policy rate from 0.50% to 0.75% at its 18–19 December meeting, with the government prepared to tolerate such a move. Markets are pricing roughly an 80% probability of a December hike, especially after Governor Kazuo Ueda signalled he would weigh the “pros and cons” of tightening this month. ^[26]

That expectation is feeding into Thursday’s market moves:

Japanese stocks are leading Asian equity gains, with the Nikkei up about 2% after a very strong 30‑year JGB auction eased concerns about long‑term debt sustainability. ^[27]
The yen is stronger, with USD/JPY heading for its largest weekly gain in more than two months, partly on BoJ hike speculation and partly on broad dollar weakness. ^[28]

Elsewhere in the region, China’s November PMIs, released earlier this week, continue to cast a shadow:

A private‑sector manufacturing PMI slipped back below 50 (to around 49.9), signalling another month of contraction, while
A separate services PMI eased to about 52.1, its slowest pace in five months, as new orders softened despite better export demand. ^[29]

These readings aren’t on today’s calendar, but they are framing how investors interpret every new data point out of Asia, from Australia’s trade numbers to Thailand’s inflation.

Why today’s Asia data matters for global investors

Even on a relatively quiet day, the Asia economic calendar is sending several clear messages:

Australia is not done with its inflation fight.
- A larger‑than‑expected trade surplus and very strong household spending both point to resilient domestic and external demand, complicating the RBA’s path back to target inflation. ^[30]
- Markets have moved from debating when cuts might resume to discussing when the next hike might arrive.
Thailand is flirting with deflation but not collapsing.
- Headline CPI remains negative for an eighth straight month, but core CPI is positive and confidence is rising, thanks to heavy fiscal lifting. ^[31]
- The BoT has room to cut rates this month, but will want to avoid feeding asset bubbles or encouraging excessive baht strength.
Policy expectations are as important as the data.
- Across Asia, today’s market moves have more to do with what central banks might do next – the Fed’s expected cut on 10 December, the BoJ’s possible hike later in the month, and the RBA/BoT debate – than with any single data release. ^[32]
Global context still dominates.
- The U.S. dollar’s longest losing streak in at least half a century, driven by soft U.S. jobs data and Fed cut bets, is amplifying the impact of local data on Asian currencies, especially the AUD and JPY. ^[33]

For traders, economists and policymakers, today’s Asia releases are less about shocks and more about confirmation:

Australia looks like one of the stronger demand stories in the region,
Thailand remains a front‑line case study in “good” versus “bad” disinflation,
And Japan’s looming policy shift could mark a historic turning point for global yield curves and carry trades.

What to watch next on the Asia economic diary

Looking beyond Thursday, the rest of this week’s Asia calendar features: ^[34]

Friday, 5 December (APAC):
- Japan Household Spending (October) – a key check on how higher prices and wage trends are shaping consumption.
- Philippines Inflation (November) – another emerging‑market test case of post‑pandemic price normalization.
- India – RBI interest‑rate decision – markets are watching whether lower inflation will permit another 25‑bp cut or whether the central bank will pause.
- Singapore Retail Sales (October) and Taiwan Inflation (November) – smaller but useful gauges of regional demand.

Those releases, combined with next week’s Fed meeting and BoJ decision later in the month, will define how the Asia economic calendar closes out 2025.