AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Stock: BlueBird 6 Launch, Incentive Plan Vote and 2026 Forecasts After November 21, 2025

Updated: December 12, 2025

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTS) has packed a lot into the last three weeks. Since November 21, 2025, the direct‑to‑smartphone satellite company has:

• scheduled the launch of its next‑generation BlueBird 6 satellite,
• expanded its U.S. manufacturing footprint,
• approved a larger equity incentive plan, and
• attracted fresh analyst coverage, algorithmic forecasts and insider trading activity.

All of this has unfolded as ASTS trades around the low‑$80s, up more than 200% over the past year and near the upper end of its 52‑week range. ^[1]

This article pulls together the key news, forecasts and analyses from November 21, 2025 onward, and what they may mean for AST SpaceMobile stock heading into its pivotal 2026 launch year.

1. Company snapshot: what AST SpaceMobile actually does

AST SpaceMobile is building what it calls the first and only global cellular broadband network in space designed to connect directly to standard, unmodified smartphones using very large low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. ^[2]

Key points about the business model:

• Direct‑to‑phone: Users are meant to connect with their existing phones—no special satellite handset—via large phased‑array antennas in space.
• Partners, not retail first: AST works through mobile network operators (MNOs) rather than trying to sell service directly to consumers. Its commercial partners include AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Rakuten, American Tower, BCE and Saudi operator STC Group, alongside government contracts with the U.S. Space Development Agency and others. ^[3]
• Heavy in‑house manufacturing: After its latest expansion, the company now controls about 500,000 square feet of production space across Texas, Maryland and Florida, is about 95% vertically integrated, and employs more than 1,800 people, most of them at its West Texas headquarters. ^[4]

That vertical integration is meant to support high‑rate production of “BlueBird” satellites, the workhorses of its future constellation.

2. November 21 catalyst: stockholders approve a bigger incentive plan

On November 21, 2025, AST SpaceMobile held a special meeting where shareholders voted on an Amended and Restated 2024 Incentive Award Plan. ^[5]

According to the company’s Form 8‑K filing and related S‑8 registration:

• The plan adds 10,000,000 additional Class A shares to the pool available for equity awards. ^[6]
• It extends the plan’s expiration date from July 29, 2034 to October 6, 2035. ^[7]
• Participation was high: about 80.2% of total voting power took part, and the proposal passed with over 819 million votes in favor versus 36.5 million against. ^[8]

What it means for ASTS stock

• The larger share pool gives AST more flexibility to grant stock‑based compensation to employees and executives, aligning incentives around long‑term execution.
• It also increases potential dilution for existing shareholders over time, on top of the company’s sizable convertible note financing and potential future capital raises.

For investors, this vote is a reminder that AST’s growth story is capital intensive—and that equity holders are likely to share more of that burden.

3. BlueBird 6: the next big test for ASTS stock

On or around November 21, AST SpaceMobile also confirmed the launch date for BlueBird 6, its first next‑generation satellite in the “Block 2” line. ^[9]

Launch details

• Launch window: Scheduled for December 15, 2025 from the Satish Dhawan Space Center in India. ^[10]
• Hardware: BlueBird 6 will carry a phased‑array antenna of about 2,400 square feet—
  roughly 3.5× larger than the 693‑square‑foot arrays on BlueWalker 3 and BlueBirds 1–5. ^[11]
• Capacity: Management and independent coverage say the new design should deliver around 10× the data capacity of current BlueBird satellites and support peak speeds up to roughly 120 Mbps to standard smartphones. ^[12]

Constellation roadmap

MarketBeat and company communications outline an aggressive rollout:

• 40 satellites targeted to be online in early 2026,
• 45–60 BlueBird satellites in LEO by the end of 2026, with planned coverage across the U.S., Europe and Japan,
• eventual expansion to a larger fleet of up to ~90 satellites to build global coverage. ^[13]

Analysts repeatedly describe BlueBird 6 as a “credibility test”: a proof point that AST can scale production, launch and operations at the cadence its business plan demands. ^[14]

4. Manufacturing expansion in Texas and Florida

In late November, AST announced that it had added two new manufacturing sites—one in Midland, Texas and one in Homestead, Florida—doubling its U.S. workforce over the last six months. ^[15]

Highlights from the expansion release:

• The company now runs five facilities in Texas, with Midland as the core site where it builds BlueBird satellites “from raw materials to finished spacecraft”. ^[16]
• Including its Maryland and Florida locations, AST’s total manufacturing footprint has grown to about 500,000 square feet. ^[17]
• Management says the company is about 95% vertically integrated, keeping major manufacturing processes under U.S. control. ^[18]
• AST claims it will have the capacity to produce up to six launch‑ready BlueBird satellites per month by the end of 2025, supporting the rapid constellation build‑out. ^[19]

From a stock perspective, this expansion reinforces the “build it in‑house, at scale” strategy—but also underlines just how much fixed cost and execution risk the company is taking on.

5. Insider activity: a sale and a buy in early December

Two insider trades since November 21 have drawn attention:

• On December 5, 2025, Chief Accounting Officer Maya Bernal sold 6,000 shares at an average price of $73.76, for total proceeds of about $442,560. She still directly owns 122,486 shares after the transaction. ^[20]
• On December 10, 2025, director Keith R. Larson bought 675 shares at an average price of roughly $72.71, spending about $49,079 via an IRA. ^[21]

Both trades came as ASTS has delivered roughly 224% returns over the past year and 121% over the last six months, with a market cap around $29–30 billion, according to Investing.com. ^[22]

Insider sales from senior finance executives can worry some investors, but they’re often driven by personal diversification rather than fundamentals. The small net insider purchase (once both trades are netted) is modest relative to AST’s sizeable float—but does signal at least one board member was willing to add exposure in the low‑$70s.

6. Financial picture: Q3 2025 earnings and balance sheet

Although Q3 results were released before November 21, they still anchor most of the current research and valuation work on ASTS.

Revenue and earnings

For the quarter ended September 30, 2025, AST SpaceMobile reported: ^[23]

• Revenue of about $14.7 million, up sharply from roughly $1.1 million a year earlier.
• A net loss of about $122.9 million, an improvement from a loss of more than $300 million in Q3 2024.
• Loss per share of –$0.45, versus –$1.10 a year earlier.

However, the company missed Wall Street expectations on both revenue and earnings:

• Analysts had expected around $19.9–$21.9 million in revenue and a narrower loss per share near –$0.21 to –$0.22. ^[24]
• The shortfall was attributed to delays in U.S. government contract milestones and the timing of gateway equipment deliveries rather than cancelled deals. ^[25]

Revenue composition shows roughly $7.0 million from U.S. government‑related services and $7.7 million from resale of gateway equipment and services, underscoring how early AST still is in its commercial ramp. ^[26]

Cash, liquidity and contracted revenue

Despite ongoing losses, AST currently has significant financial firepower:

• Q3 disclosures and subsequent commentary point to over $1.2 billion in cash, with combined cash and liquidity around $3.2 billion when including restricted cash and an at‑the‑market (ATM) facility. ^[27]
• The company has secured about $1.6 billion in convertible note financing and a $200 million strategic investment from Alphabet, according to Investor’s Business Daily. ^[28]
• AST says it now has more than $1 billion in aggregate contracted revenue commitments from a mix of commercial carriers and U.S. government customers. ^[29]

That contracted backlog includes a 10‑year, $175 million deal with STC Group in Saudi Arabia and a $43 million contract with the U.S. Space Development Agency, plus collaborations with the National Science Foundation and Department of Defense for space‑based testbed projects. ^[30]

Bottom line: AST has a large cash cushion and visible contracted revenue, but still burns substantial cash each quarter. Management’s guidance envisions 2025 second‑half revenue of $50–75 million, implying a big step‑up in Q4; execution against that target will be closely scrutinised. ^[31]

7. ASTS stock performance and volatility since November 21

ASTS has been one of 2025’s most volatile and closely watched growth stocks.

• MarketBeat reports that by December 11, 2025, ASTS had gained more than 265% year‑to‑date, trading around $82.76 with a 52‑week range of $17.50 to $102.79. ^[32]
• Barron’s notes that the stock is up over 225% year‑to‑date, and is now valued at roughly 50× projected 2027 EBITDA vs about 12× at the start of the year. ^[33]
• Investing.com cites 224% returns over the past 12 months and 121% over six months, with a market cap close to $29.4 billion. ^[34]
• Intellectia’s technical analysis shows intraday swings of more than 13% on some recent days—for example, trading between $70.90 and $80.29 in one session—highlighting elevated volatility. ^[35]

As of late December 11 trading, ASTS is hovering in the low‑$80s per share. ^[36]

Short interest and trading dynamics

Intellectia estimates ASTS’s short sale ratio at roughly 19% as of December 9, 2025, implying a significant level of bearish bets against the stock. ^[37]

Combined with the rapid ascent in market cap and a relatively concentrated shareholder base (Rakuten, Alphabet and several Vanguard funds hold sizable positions), this mix of high institutional ownership, strong retail interest and meaningful short interest creates conditions for continued sharp moves in both directions. ^[38]

8. What Wall Street analysts are saying about AST SpaceMobile

Analyst opinion on ASTS is bullish on the technology and contracts, but cautious on valuation.

Consensus price targets

• Benzinga’s compilation of 10 analysts shows: ^[39]
  • Consensus price target: $59.83
  • High target: $95 (B. Riley Securities, October 23, 2025)
  • Low target: $30 (Cantor Fitzgerald, March 4, 2025)
  • The site describes the consensus rating as “Buy”, but the average rating score of 3.1/5 is closer to “Hold” territory.
• Nasdaq / Fintel report that the average one‑year price target was raised to $71.52 on November 16, 2025—up 20.23% from a prior $59.49 estimate—with a range from $43.43 to $99.75 and about 16.5% upside versus a then‑current price of $61.40. ^[40]

Notably, many of these price targets now sit below or only slightly above the current ~$80–83 share price, suggesting much of the near‑term optimism is already reflected in the stock.

Recent rating moves

Within that consensus, recent analyst actions show a split picture: ^[41]

• Clear Street (November 12, 2025) raised its target from $59 to $87 and maintained a Buy rating, reflecting confidence in AST’s satellite roadmap and revenue pipeline.
• Scotiabank (November 25, 2025) lifted its rating from “Sector Underperform” to “Sector Perform,” but set a price target of $45.60, implying about 45% downside from recent levels.
• A recent Seeking Alpha article titled “AST SpaceMobile: The Next Frontier In Global Communication” rates the stock Buy with an $87 target (around 18% upside from the low‑$70s at the time), while another piece, “Strong Progress, But Valuation Still Outruns Fundamentals,” warns that the share price may be ahead of the underlying business metrics. ^[42]
• Barron’s estimates 2026 revenue of about $267 million, up from $56.4 million forecast for 2025, and a 2027 EBITDA target of $500 million, but notes that ASTS now trades at roughly 50× that 2027 EBITDA figure, a steep multiple even for a disruptive telecom play. ^[43]

Taken together, Wall Street largely agrees that AST SpaceMobile has a real business opportunity and impressive partners, but many analysts now see limited upside—or even downside—from current prices unless execution exceeds already lofty expectations.

9. Algorithmic and AI‑driven forecasts: wildly different paths

Beyond traditional equity research, several AI/quant platforms have published price predictions for ASTS, offering a sense of how models (rather than humans) are reading the stock.

Hexn: aggressively bullish long‑term path

Hexn’s forecast, based primarily on technical and statistical analysis, is notably optimistic: ^[44]

• For 2026, it projects:
  • Minimum price around $85.88,
  • Maximum around $129,
  • Average around $106, implying roughly 30%+ upside vs. current levels.
• For 2027, its model envisions an average price around $155, with a maximum near $187, more than double today’s price.
• Longer‑term projections (through 2030–2032) show hypothetical prices several hundred dollars per share—essentially compounding very strong returns if AST executes.

These figures should be treated with caution: they’re mechanical extrapolations, not fundamental valuations.

Intellectia: short‑term strength, medium‑term drop, long‑term recovery

Intellectia’s AI‑driven forecast paints a more complex picture: ^[45]

• Near term:
  • 1‑day prediction: +0.22% to about $79.22,
  • 1‑week: +1.81%,
  • 1‑month: +3.54% to around $81.85.
• Medium term: a 2026 forecast of about $37.78, implying –52% downside from recent prices.
• Long term: a 2030 forecast near $182.72, roughly +130% upside versus current levels.

Despite that projected 2026 drawdown, Intellectia currently labels ASTS a “Strong Buy candidate” on near‑term technical criteria, while flagging a short sale ratio near 19% and mixed mid‑term moving‑average signals.

The main takeaway: algorithmic models disagree sharply on ASTS’s medium‑term path. Their numbers are best read as risk‑scenario illustrations rather than precise forecasts.

10. Strategic context: AST vs. Starlink, Amazon Leo and telecom politics

Understanding AST SpaceMobile’s valuation today means looking beyond its own balance sheet.

Carrier hedge against a SpaceX monopoly

A widely discussed Light Reading analysis argues that AST’s survival is partly the result of a deliberate strategy by major U.S. carriers to avoid dependence on SpaceX. ^[46]

Key points from that piece:

• Starlink already dominates satellite broadband by scale, with hundreds of direct‑to‑device (D2D) satellites and very high rural customer satisfaction.
• AT&T and Verizon nonetheless committed capital and spectrum to AST SpaceMobile in 2024, accepting slower time‑to‑market and lower initial capacity in exchange for strategic independence from Elon Musk’s vertically integrated platform.
• AST is framed as a kind of “compliance cost” for carriers—a strategic hedge to ensure they never become mere resellers in a hypothetical Starlink monopoly.
• At the same time, Starlink’s own plans to roll out full data and voice directly to phones in Q1 2026 largely neutralize AST’s original technical differentiation, increasing pressure on AST to win on partnerships, regulation and execution rather than uniqueness alone.

Europe’s constellation and global ambitions

On the other side of the Atlantic, Vodafone and AST SpaceMobile are leading a Europe‑backed LEO constellation effort aimed at providing sovereign satellite connectivity for both commercial and government use. ^[47]

• Reuters reports that numerous European telecom operators have expressed interest in joining the project, aligning it with EU goals around digital sovereignty, security and resilience.
• The plan dovetails with AST’s goal to have roughly 60 satellites in orbit by 2026, many of which would support European coverage. ^[48]

Together, these developments suggest that AST is not just another growth stock; its fate is intertwined with geopolitics, spectrum policy and the strategic choices of mega‑carriers and governments.

11. Bull vs. bear case for ASTS after November 21

Bullish arguments

Supporters of ASTS typically highlight:

• Powerful partners and contracts
  Long‑term deals with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Rakuten, STC Group and U.S. government agencies back a contracted revenue pipeline exceeding $1 billion, lending credibility to future cash flows. ^[49]
• Robust liquidity
  With about $1.2 billion in cash and $3.2 billion in total liquidity, plus convertible note funding and a supportive equity market, AST is better capitalized than many space startups. ^[50]
• Scaling manufacturing and constellation
  A 500,000‑square‑foot manufacturing footprint, 95% vertical integration and plans to produce six satellites a month position AST to build its constellation quickly if demand materializes. ^[51]
• Strategic tailwinds
  Carriers and governments appear committed to avoiding a SpaceX monopoly, which could sustain AST even if its technology isn’t first to market. ^[52]
• Huge total addressable market (TAM)
  The promise of bringing broadband to billions of currently underserved mobile users underpins the most optimistic revenue and price forecasts. ^[53]

Bearish arguments

Skeptics point to equally significant risks:

• Valuation disconnected from fundamentals
  With Q3 revenue of $14.7 million and a net loss of $122.9 million, AST’s price‑to‑sales ratio was recently quoted near 778, and its EV/2027E EBITDA multiple around 50×—levels more typical of early‑stage biotech than telecom infrastructure. ^[54]
• Execution risk on launches and service
  BlueBird 6 and the upcoming launch cadence must go right; any launch failure, regulatory delay or technical under‑performance could severely damage the investment case and slow revenue ramp. ^[55]
• Continued cash burn and potential dilution
  Q3 saw large negative operating cash flow, and the approved expansion of the incentive plan plus existing convertible notes point to ongoing dilution risk for common shareholders. ^[56]
• Rising competition in direct‑to‑device
  Starlink’s planned D2D rollout, Amazon’s Leo constellation and smaller players like Lynk and Globalstar/Apple narrow AST’s technological edge and may pressure margins and pricing power. ^[57]
• Conflicting forecasts and high short interest
  Traditional analysts, bullish bloggers and AI models disagree sharply on fair value; the stock’s near‑19% short ratio signals a significant contingent betting on downside. ^[58]

12. What to watch next for ASTS stock

Investors tracking AST SpaceMobile into 2026 are likely to focus on a few key milestones:

1. BlueBird 6 launch and early on‑orbit results
   • Did the December 15 launch go as planned?
   • Does the satellite hit its performance metrics (data throughput, latency, coverage) during early testing? ^[59]
2. Additional launches and constellation build‑out
   • How quickly can AST move from one next‑gen satellite to dozens?
   • Does the company stick to its goal of 45–60 satellites by end‑2026? ^[60]
3. Revenue realization from the >$1 billion backlog
   • When do STC, SDA and other contracts start contributing meaningful recurring revenue?
   • Does 2026 revenue approach the $267 million level some analysts now forecast? ^[61]
4. Capital allocation and dilution
   • How quickly is cash being spent on capex, manufacturing and launches?
   • To what extent do the new 10 million incentive shares and convertible notes increase the effective share count? ^[62]
5. Competitive and regulatory developments
   • Progress of Starlink’s D2D service and Amazon Leo’s regulatory waivers. ^[63]
   • European and other government decisions regarding constellation funding, spectrum and procurement that could favor or disadvantage AST. ^[64]

13. Takeaways: how AST SpaceMobile looks after November 21, 2025

Since November 21, 2025, AST SpaceMobile has:

• Locked in a larger, longer‑dated equity incentive plan, signalling both a long runway for employee ownership and added dilution risk. ^[65]
• Moved closer to its first next‑gen satellite launch and accelerated U.S. manufacturing, reinforcing its ambition to become a mass‑production satellite telecom player. ^[66]
• Triggered a flurry of analyst notes, quant forecasts and insider trades, all reflecting a market grappling with an unusual mix of strategic importance, technological uncertainty and sky‑high valuation. ^[67]

For now, ASTS sits in a high‑risk, high‑reward zone: it is backed by powerful partners and substantial capital, but priced for a future in which it executes almost flawlessly and maintains a meaningful role alongside giants like SpaceX and Amazon.

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