As of 1:55 p.m. ET in New York on Friday, December 26, 2025, AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTS) was trading around $72.04, down about 7.7% on the day, with shares fluctuating between roughly $71.89 and $79.39 amid heavy volume. The broader market backdrop was comparatively calm, with the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) essentially flat and the Nasdaq-leaning QQQ modestly higher at the same time—an important reminder that today’s move appears more stock-specific than macro-driven.
That “stock-specific” lens matters because AST SpaceMobile is in a catalyst-heavy phase: it’s transitioning from highly publicized technology milestones and early commercial agreements to the far tougher work of scaling manufacturing, executing a launch cadence, winning/clearing regulatory approvals, and proving service performance at commercial reliability.
Below is what’s driving the conversation around ASTS stock right now, what the latest filings and partnerships say about the roadmap, and what investors typically focus on before the next major inflection point.
Why AST SpaceMobile stock is moving today
ASTS has been one of the market’s most closely watched space-and-connectivity equities, and it’s also prone to sharp swings—especially around launches, regulatory headlines, and insider transactions.
1) BlueBird 6 is in orbit—now comes the “prove it” phase
The company announced the successful orbital launch of BlueBird 6 late this week. Management described the satellite as the largest commercial communications array ever deployed in low Earth orbit, with an array spanning nearly 2,400 square feet and a design targeting peak data rates of up to 120 Mbps directly to standard (unmodified) smartphones. [1]
Independent space coverage also emphasized the scale of the payload and the milestone for the launch provider. Space.com reported BlueBird 6’s deployment after launch and noted the satellite’s record-setting size and mass for that rocket class. [2]
In markets, a successful launch can still be a “sell the news” event—particularly if the stock has run hard into the milestone and investors shift focus from getting to orbit to commissioning, deployment, and performance validation.
2) Investors are reacting to insider-sale headlines—despite 10b5-1 context
Several recent SEC Form 4 filings have been circulating among traders. Most notably, AST SpaceMobile’s CTO Huiwen Yao reported selling 40,000 shares on December 5, 2025 at a weighted average price of $73.52, and the filing states the trade was executed under a Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted June 12, 2025. [3]
Separately, the company’s COO Shanti Gupta reported selling 10,000 shares on December 10, 2025 at $77.34. [4]
Insider selling does not automatically signal deteriorating fundamentals—especially when conducted under a pre-established trading plan—but it can pressure sentiment in a stock with a large retail following and elevated expectations.
3) Post-holiday liquidity can amplify moves
Friday’s session comes right after the Christmas holiday. In many years, post-holiday trading can be thinner, which can exaggerate both drops and spikes—particularly for high-volatility names. With ASTS, the combination of headline catalysts and high investor positioning means intraday swings can be sharp even without a single new “smoking gun” headline.
BlueBird 6: what investors should watch now that it’s in space
The launch itself is only the beginning of the near-term checklist. What typically matters next:
- Array deployment and commissioning updates: “In orbit” is a milestone; “successfully deployed + tested” is another.
- Performance metrics: throughput, call quality, and consistency—especially in real-world geographies and network conditions.
- Integration steps with partners: ground gateways, network operations readiness, and regulatory alignment in each coverage market.
AST has framed BlueBird 6 as a turning point toward scaled deployment. CEO Abel Avellan called it “a breakthrough moment” and said it “marks the transition to scaled deployment.” [5]
AST also stated that the launch keeps it on track to launch 45–60 satellites by the end of 2026, with launches planned roughly every one to two months. [6]
Commercial runway: Verizon, AT&T, Vodafone, and stc put real structure around the story
AST SpaceMobile’s bull case is increasingly tied to whether it can convert major-operator relationships into durable, regulatory-cleared, revenue-producing services. Here are the partnerships most often referenced by investors:
Verizon: a definitive commercial agreement targeting 2026 service
AST announced a definitive commercial agreement with Verizon to provide direct-to-cellular service for Verizon customers “when needed” starting in 2026. The company described the service as combining Verizon’s terrestrial network with AST’s space-based network and operating across low-band spectrum plus AST’s licensed L-band/S-band spectrum and partner spectrum resources. [7]
Importantly for credibility, Verizon executives have publicly framed the initiative as more than a science experiment. Verizon SVP Srini Kalapala said the partnership is “a good step forward” toward a “seamlessly connected world.” [8]
Associated Press coverage of the Verizon-AST deal highlighted that AST shares jumped on the announcement and described the plan to use a mix of AST spectrum and partner spectrum to extend coverage into remote areas. [9]
AT&T: agreement extended through 2030
AT&T and AST also have a definitive commercial agreement extending through 2030 to provide a space-based broadband network direct to everyday phones. AT&T COO Jeff McElfresh said the tech is designed to “complement and integrate” with AT&T’s existing network. [10]
Vodafone: Europe-focused “SatCo” and sovereignty framing
In Europe, Vodafone and AST have been building out a more explicitly “sovereign” narrative. Reuters reported that Vodafone and AST plan a Europe-led satellite constellation, including a European operations center in Germany and a “command switch” intended to provide European oversight and security. The Reuters piece also cited Vodafone CEO Margherita Della Valle emphasizing the importance of sovereign, secure satellite resilience for Europe. [11]
Vodafone’s own newsroom announcement similarly described Germany as the location for the main Satellite Operations Centre and referenced the Luxembourg-headquartered joint venture SatCo. [12]
stc group: prepayment + regional rollout, but later commercial timing
AST and Saudi telecom stc group announced a 10-year commercial agreement that includes a $175 million prepayment for future services and a longer-term revenue commitment. The companies said commercial services are anticipated to launch in Q4 2026, contingent on full regulatory authorization and licensing. [13]
Financial position and launch cadence: what the latest quarterly update said
AST’s most recent quarterly business update (Q3 2025) laid out the two themes investors track most: liquidity and execution timeline.
Key points from the company’s Q3 2025 update include:
- GAAP revenue of $14.7 million in Q3 2025, driven by U.S. government contract milestones and gateway deliveries. [14]
- Second-half 2025 revenue guidance reiterated at $50–$75 million. [15]
- Over $1.0 billion in aggregate contracted revenue commitments from partners, according to the company. [16]
- A launch campaign aiming for multiple orbital launches, including a target of five orbital launches by end of Q1 2026 and a longer-term goal of 45–60 satellites by end of 2026. [17]
- A “robust balance sheet” the company described as $3.2 billion in pro forma cash, restricted cash, and liquidity (including availability under an ATM facility). [18]
- Capital markets activity including $1.15 billion of gross proceeds from a convertible senior notes offering, with a 2.00% coupon and an effective conversion price of $96.30 per share. [19]
This is the crux for many investors: AST has meaningful liquidity and big-name commercial partners, but it’s also operating a business model where execution risk is high and timelines matter.
Manufacturing scale-up: why investors care almost as much as launch news
A satellite broadband story lives or dies on manufacturing throughput and quality control.
AST announced it expanded manufacturing with additional sites in Texas and Florida, stating it now operates about 500,000 square feet of manufacturing and operations facilities worldwide and employs more than 1,800 professionals. The company also stated it is 95% vertically integrated and referenced a patent portfolio of 3,800 U.S. patents and patent-pending claims. [20]
From an investor’s perspective, manufacturing announcements aren’t just PR—these are signals about whether AST can realistically hit a cadence that supports service rollouts tied to Verizon, AT&T, Vodafone/SatCo, and stc.
Analyst forecasts and valuation: why opinions are still split
Street targets vary widely—and some averages sit near (or below) today’s price
Consensus-style price targets are a moving target, and they can diverge depending on which analysts and updates a platform includes.
- TipRanks shows an average price target around $72.39, with estimates ranging from roughly $43 to $95 (based on recent analyst updates listed by the platform). [21]
- StockAnalysis lists a consensus “Buy” rating among its tracked analysts and an average price target around $59.37, with a range of $30 to $95 (and notes targets were last updated Nov. 25, 2025). [22]
- An Investing.com report on analyst activity noted Barclays raised its price target to $60 earlier in the cycle. [23]
The takeaway is not “which site is right,” but rather: ASTS is priced for a lot of future success, so even bullish analysts may differ sharply on the right multiple to pay before commercial service scales.
Some commentators are explicitly focused on valuation risk
A Trefis analysis published today flagged AST’s valuation as aggressive versus near-term revenue, arguing the stock trades at very high multiples of consensus revenue expectations and that execution must be exceptional to justify it. [24]
Barron’s coverage of AST’s Q3 report also underscored the “high expectations” dynamic, noting that results missed some estimates while forward revenue growth expectations remain substantial. [25]
Competitive and regulatory backdrop: Starlink is the shadow over every D2D thesis
No AST SpaceMobile stock article is complete without the elephant in the room: SpaceX/Starlink and the broader direct-to-device race.
- The Verge reported earlier this year that AT&T and Verizon each demonstrated cellphone-to-satellite video calling via partnerships involving AST, highlighting the accelerating pace of technical milestones—while also pointing to competition from T-Mobile’s Starlink-related satellite messaging efforts. [26]
- Reuters’ report on Vodafone and AST’s Europe initiative explicitly positioned the constellation as competition to Starlink and contrasted constellation scale (Starlink’s far larger deployed base versus AST’s smaller current fleet and planned growth). [27]
- Fierce Network recently reported that Ligado is seeking FCC approval related to a potential deal involving AST SpaceMobile—another reminder that spectrum, approvals, and the evolving regulatory chessboard can influence the opportunity set. [28]
For investors, the real question is less “Can AST prove the tech works?” and more: Can it deliver commercial-grade service fast enough, at enough scale, with enough regulatory clearance, to secure durable economics before competitors lock up key markets and spectrum pathways?
What investors should watch into the close and before the next session
Because the market is open right now (New York time is mid-afternoon), the most actionable “next-session” checklist is really a close-to-close and headline-risk checklist:
- Any commissioning/deployment updates for BlueBird 6
Investors will be looking for confirmations around deployment steps and early performance signals following the orbital launch. [29] - Volume and volatility into the closing auction
ASTS has shown it can swing sharply in both directions. Elevated volume late in the day can signal positioning into the weekend or continued digestion of recent headlines. - Follow-through headlines on partnerships and rollout timing
Partnership announcements (Verizon, stc, Vodafone/SatCo, AT&T) are now on the record—but rollout timing remains dependent on launch cadence and regulatory clearance in each jurisdiction. [30] - Insider transaction narratives (with the right context)
If insider headlines continue to circulate, investors should note the SEC filing details—especially whether trades were made under 10b5-1 plans and what the remaining holdings are—before drawing conclusions. [31] - Liquidity and dilution watch
AST has highlighted substantial pro forma liquidity and recent convertible financing terms, but investors should still track capital needs and potential dilution pathways as constellation deployment scales. [32]
Bottom line
AST SpaceMobile stock is trading lower today in a relatively calm broader market, as investors weigh a major technical milestone—BlueBird 6 successfully reaching orbit—against the realities of execution risk, insider-sale headlines, and the long road from “works” to “works at scale”. [33]
For near-term traders, the story is about volatility and catalysts. For long-term investors, it’s about whether AST can deliver on its stated path to 45–60 satellites by the end of 2026, convert its high-profile operator agreements into commercial services, and defend its position in an increasingly crowded direct-to-device market. [34]
References
1. www.businesswire.com, 2. www.space.com, 3. www.sec.gov, 4. www.sec.gov, 5. www.businesswire.com, 6. www.businesswire.com, 7. www.businesswire.com, 8. www.businesswire.com, 9. apnews.com, 10. about.att.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.vodafone.com, 13. www.businesswire.com, 14. www.businesswire.com, 15. www.businesswire.com, 16. www.businesswire.com, 17. www.businesswire.com, 18. www.businesswire.com, 19. www.businesswire.com, 20. www.businesswire.com, 21. www.tipranks.com, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.trefis.com, 25. www.barrons.com, 26. www.theverge.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.fierce-network.com, 29. www.businesswire.com, 30. www.businesswire.com, 31. www.sec.gov, 32. www.businesswire.com, 33. www.businesswire.com, 34. www.businesswire.com
