NEW YORK, June 30, 2026, 05:06 (EDT)
- AST SpaceMobile, Inc. NASDAQ:ASTS finished Monday at $86.77, a gain of 21.44%. Premarket on Google Finance had shares at $87.49. The Nasdaq session was not open yet.
- Japan will put up 150 billion yen, about $926 million, over three years for a low-Earth-orbit satellite project led by Rakuten Group (TYO:4755) with AST, Reuters reported, according to Investing.com.
- The funding pool that’s been reported is about 4.6 to 6.2 times the revenue AST guided for 2026. Monday’s rally boosted market cap by roughly $5.95 billion, based on that calculation.
- AST is looking to its next milestone with the BlueBirds 11, 12 and 13 launch set for the first half of August.
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. NASDAQ:ASTS pushed higher in early trading Tuesday, gaining more market cap in one session than the total size of the Japan subsidy that sparked the run. The satellite-to-phone stock finished Monday at $86.77, a jump of 21.44%. Google Finance showed another 0.83% gain to $87.49 in premarket. Nasdaq’s premarket window is from 4:00 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. Eastern.
AST closed with a market cap of $33.68 billion, according to Google Finance. Shares jumped 21.44%, tacking on roughly $5.95 billion from the last close. That’s about 6.4 times the $926 million Japanese subsidy pool cited, and market cap is around 36 times that figure. The math is rough—market cap is from the close and doesn’t use a fully diluted model.
| Measure | Figure | Investor read |
|---|---|---|
| AST Monday close | $86.77, +21.44% | Stock already ran up on Japan news |
| AST premarket quote | $87.49, +0.83% | Small move early, kept Monday gains |
| Market cap at close | $33.68 billion | About 36 times the subsidy pool |
| Reported Japan subsidy pool | 150 billion yen / $926 million | No word yet if AST will get it all |
| Implied value added Monday | ~$5.95 billion | About 6 times the subsidy pool |
| AST 2026 revenue guide | $150 million-$200 million | Subsidy pool 4 to 6 times AST’s target |
Japan’s funding plan isn’t an award to the company. Reuters reported the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications is set to sign off on the subsidies soon, with money set to roll out over three years. The spending aims to cover equipment and ground infrastructure costs for a consortium led by Rakuten, which will work with AST on a homegrown low-Earth-orbit satellite system.
The way the split works is more important for investors than just the top-line figure. If the spending goes to launches, ground systems or control under Rakuten’s lead, AST still needs to break out what turns into satellite sales or service revenue. In May, AST said it was on track for $150 million to $200 million in 2026 revenue, with first-quarter revenue at $14.7 million. About half the full-year guide is expected to come from already contracted backlog.
Rakuten outperformed the main indexes. The Nasdaq Composite closed up 2.07% Monday, the S&P 500 was up 1.18%, and the Dow rose 0.59%, Investing.com data showed. Shares of Rakuten climbed in Tokyo Tuesday after a report on the subsidy, gaining 6.2% with an earlier jump to 7.9%.
| Instrument | Latest cited move | Why it matters for AST |
|---|---|---|
| AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ:ASTS | Closed up 21.44% Monday | Popped on Japan subsidy angle |
| Rakuten Group (TYO:4755) | Added 6.2% Tuesday | AST’s local ally moved too |
| Nasdaq Composite | Gained 2.07% Monday | AST beat the growth names |
| S&P 500 | Up 1.18% Monday | AST’s jump wasn’t just risk-on |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | Up 0.59% Monday | Rally missed the big caps |
AST’s business is about launch pace as much as Japan. The company said BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10 made it to orbit on June 17, flying on a Falcon 9 out of Cape Canaveral. According to AST, the satellites each carry communications arrays of around 2,400 square feet and are built to deliver nearly twice the peak data speed of the Block 1 BlueBirds, which recently managed 98.9 Mbps to standard smartphones. CEO Abel Avellan said the goal is “space-based cellular broadband to everyone, everywhere,” and said AST is now “scaling launch cadence” as it readies for commercial service. Green Stock News
AST said June 23 it’s planning to send BlueBirds 11, 12 and 13 up from Cape Canaveral in the first half of August on Falcon 9. In the same update, the company said BlueBirds 8, 9 and 10 are already running in orbit. Satellites up to BlueBird 37 are still in production and assembly. AST President Scott Wisniewski said each launch gets the company “move closer” to commercial service. Green Stock News
The Federal Communications Commission in April gave AST the go-ahead to run up to 248 low-Earth-orbit satellites for U.S. supplemental coverage using 700 MHz and 800 MHz bands with Verizon Communications Inc. NYSE:VZ, AT&T Inc. NYSE:T and FirstNet. Avellan said this was an “important step” toward commercial service. Green Stock News Regulatory approval remains another hurdle.
Wall Street analysts are split on AST. Google Finance shows nine analysts have weighed in over the past three months: two rate it a buy, five say hold, and two are at sell. The average price target is $86.28, which is under Monday’s close at $86.77 and even lower than the $87.49 premarket move. The lowest target out there is $41.20 from Scotiabank’s Andres Coello, while Gregory Pendy at Clear Street goes high with $115.
| Analyst screen | Reading after Monday close |
|---|---|
| Google Finance consensus | Hold |
| Buy / hold / sell split | 2 / 5 / 2 |
| Average 12-month target | $86.28 |
| Close vs average target | +0.6% |
| Premarket quote vs average target | +1.4% |
| Listed low / high target | $41.20 / $115.00 |
Japan’s formal subsidy approval is first up, along with any numbers revealed on Rakuten-AST economics. August is set for the next hardware launch. Next filings will need to show revenue or backlog figures.
