Sydney, January 6, 2026, 20:58 AEDT — Market closed
- S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.52% to 8,682.8, its weakest session in three weeks. 1
- Big banks slid 2%–3% as investors rebalanced and rate bets firmed ahead of inflation data due Wednesday. 1
- BlueScope jumped 21% after SGH and Steel Dynamics pitched A$30 a share in cash. 2
Australian shares logged their weakest session in three weeks on Tuesday as heavy losses in the big banks outweighed a rally in miners, leaving the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 down 0.52% at 8,682.8. 1
The near-term focus is inflation. The Australian Bureau of Statistics is due to publish its November monthly consumer price index (CPI) on Wednesday, January 7, with economists looking for the annual pace to ease to about 3.7% from 3.8%. 3
That print matters because it feeds straight into expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next move. Markets have recently shifted to price a roughly one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as February, after the central bank’s more hawkish messaging on inflation. 3
Bank stocks took the brunt of the selling, with Commonwealth Bank of Australia dropping about 3% and the other major lenders losing roughly 2% or more. “Looking at the market map, the banks are the main issue and there are a number of factors at play,” Moomoo market strategist Michael McCarthy told AAP, pointing to valuation concerns and early-year portfolio rebalancing. 4
One strategist warned the rate narrative could splinter performance across sectors. “If the market starts pricing in rate increases, the ASX is likely to see more differentiated performance across sectors rather than a broad rally,” Marc Jocum, senior product and investment strategist at Global X ETFs Australia, said. 1
Miners pushed the other way, with the sector finishing at a record close on stronger commodity prices, while copper-linked names rose after the metal hit a fresh high above $US13,000 a tonne. Iron ore majors BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue all climbed about 1.5% or more, AAP reported. 1
BlueScope Steel was the day’s standout, closing up 21% at A$29.54 after it disclosed a non-binding indicative offer — a preliminary approach that is not yet firm — from Kerry Stokes-controlled SGH and U.S.-based Steel Dynamics valuing the company at A$13.15 billion (US$8.78 billion). Steel Dynamics CEO and chair Mark Millett said the deal would be “highly complementary” to its existing operations. 5
Deal talk brought its own sceptics. “I see the SGH-led proposal as opportunistic but potentially value-unlocking for shareholders, albeit highly conditional and execution-heavy,” said Mark Gardner, CEO of MPC Markets, while Opal Capital Management CIO Omkar Joshi said bidders would likely need to lift the price before the offer could be accepted. 2
Away from M&A, Silex Systems sank about a third after a key licensee missed out on a U.S. government funding program, while the Australian dollar held near 14-month highs around 67.27 U.S. cents, AAP said. 4
The risk is that Wednesday’s CPI print runs hotter than forecast, pushing up the odds of a February hike and extending the pressure on rate-sensitive stocks — companies whose earnings and valuations are more exposed to interest-rate shifts, including banks and retailers.
Next up is the November CPI release on Wednesday, January 7, followed by December labour force data due Thursday, January 22, and the RBA’s next policy decision scheduled for Tuesday, February 3. 6
