The Australian share market looks set for a cautious rebound on Wednesday, 10 December 2025, after a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting knocked the S&P/ASX 200 lower on Tuesday. Futures point to a modestly higher open, global markets are treading water ahead of a critical US Federal Reserve decision, iron ore is under pressure, while gold and silver are soaring to record territory. [1]
Below is a detailed pre‑open briefing to help you navigate the ASX session.
1. Futures point to a modestly higher ASX open
ASX futures are signalling a small rebound after Tuesday’s sell‑off:
- ASX 200 futures were up around 0.2–0.3%, or roughly 16 points, early on Wednesday morning, pointing to a modestly higher open at 10am AEDT. [2]
- The S&P/ASX 200 index closed 0.45% lower at about 8,586 on Tuesday, with losses spread across most sectors. [3]
Market commentary links the drop primarily to the RBA’s hawkish tone, which effectively buried hopes for further rate cuts in the near term and re‑opened the door to possible rate hikes in 2026. [4]
Key index colour from Tuesday:
- Broader indices such as the All Ordinaries and ASX 300 also fell around 0.4–0.5%. [5]
- Rate‑sensitive sectors like information technology, healthcare, real estate and energy led declines, with tech stocks down more than 1% on the day. [6]
Today’s slight uptick in futures suggests bargain hunting and short‑covering, but sentiment remains fragile given the central‑bank‑driven backdrop.
2. RBA holds at 3.60% – but clearly leans “higher for longer”
The RBA left the cash rate at 3.60% at its 9 December meeting, its final policy decision for 2025. [7]
Key takeaways from the decision and subsequent commentary:
- The Board noted that headline inflation has picked up again to 3.8% in October, and underlying inflation has also risen, with some of the increase likely to be persistent. [8]
- The statement highlighted that “risks to inflation have tilted to the upside”, even as earlier rate cuts are still flowing through the economy. [9]
- Governor Michele Bullock emphasised that rate cuts are not on the horizon, and that the next move is likely a choice between holding for longer or raising rates again if inflation doesn’t ease back towards target. [10]
Markets reacted quickly:
- Three‑year government bond yields jumped by around 11 basis points to their highest level since late 2024. [11]
- The Australian dollar climbed about 0.3% to roughly US$0.664–0.665. [12]
For equities, this “higher for longer” stance increases pressure on:
- High‑multiple growth and tech names, whose valuations are most sensitive to discount‑rate assumptions.
- Interest‑rate‑sensitive sectors – real estate, consumer discretionary and parts of financials – where higher funding costs and slower growth are a concern.
3. Wall Street mixed as the Fed prepares to decide
Overnight leads from the US are cautious rather than outright negative:
- The Dow Jones fell roughly 0.4%, the S&P 500 slipped about 0.1%, while the Nasdaq eked out a gain of around 0.1–0.2%. [13]
- The Russell 2000 small‑cap index outperformed, closing about 0.4% higher and hitting a new record as investors rotated modestly into domestically focused cyclicals. [14]
The context:
- The Federal Reserve is in the middle of a two‑day meeting, with markets assigning roughly an 85–90% probability to a 25‑basis‑point rate cut on Wednesday US time. [15]
- However, traders widely expect a hawkish tone in the Fed’s projections and press conference, with debate focused on how many further cuts (if any) might come in 2026. [16]
- US 10‑year Treasury yields are holding around 4.18–4.19%, having risen over recent sessions, which is limiting equity upside. [17]
For the ASX:
- The US lead is mixed at best, and sentiment is being driven more by domestic monetary policy and commodities than by Wall Street alone.
- Still, a clean Fed cut with limited hawkish surprises would be supportive for risk assets overnight and may help sustain any intraday strength on the ASX.
4. Commodities: iron ore weak, gold and silver on fire, oil easing
Iron ore under pressure
Iron ore, the lifeblood of Australia’s major miners, is trading near its lowest levels in about a month:
- Benchmark January iron ore on the Singapore Exchange has recently slipped towards US$100–102 per tonne, down for several consecutive sessions. [18]
- A Reuters‑reported wave of supply from Guinea’s giant Simandou project and softer Chinese steel demand are weighing on prices, with analysts flagging further downside risk amid high inventories and seasonal maintenance at Chinese mills. [19]
This backdrop is a headwind for the big miners — BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue — and helps explain recent underperformance in the ASX materials sector, which fell about 0.6% on Tuesday. [20]
Gold and silver at record territory
In sharp contrast, precious metals are surging:
- Gold is holding above US$4,200 per ounce, with spot and futures prices up about 0.5–0.6% in the latest session. [21]
- Silver has broken through US$60 per ounce to fresh all‑time highs, having more than doubled in price during 2025 amid a global supply squeeze and strong industrial demand. [22]
For the ASX, this environment typically:
- Supports gold miners and precious‑metals producers, which could see renewed buying interest at the open.
- Encourages rotation into defensive “hard asset” plays, especially if bond yields remain firm and macro uncertainty persists.
Oil prices drift lower
Oil markets continue to soften:
- Brent crude is hovering around US$62 per barrel, down about 0.8% overnight. [23]
- WTI crude is trading in the US$58–59 range after another session of modest declines, as traders weigh ample supply, Ukraine peace‑talk developments and the upcoming Fed decision. [24]
Lower oil is:
- Negative for energy names such as Woodside and Santos (the ASX 200 energy sector fell around 1–1.5% on Tuesday). [25]
- But mildly supportive for transport, airlines and other fuel‑intensive businesses.
5. FX: a stronger Aussie dollar shapes the trading day
The Australian dollar has firmed notably:
- AUD/USD is trading around US$0.664, up about 0.2–0.3% over the last session and near the top of its recent range. [26]
Why it matters:
- A stronger Aussie reflects both the RBA’s hawkish stance and strong precious‑metals prices, but it can act as a drag on export‑oriented sectors like resources, agriculture and globally exposed industrials.
- For importers and retailers, a firmer currency can ease cost pressures, partially offsetting domestic rate headwinds.
Traders may watch FX‑sensitive names closely at the open, particularly:
- Global industrials and healthcare exporters.
- Resource names where revenue is predominantly US‑dollar‑denominated, but costs are largely in Australian dollars.
6. Corporate stories and sectors to watch
Corporate Travel Management (CTM) and index reshuffle
Corporate Travel Management (CTM) remains in focus:
- S&P Dow Jones Indices has announced that CTM will be removed from the ASX 200, following an accounting‑irregularities scandal in its UK business, with the change effective later in December. [27]
- Funds have already begun slashing valuations and reassessing exposure, with ongoing uncertainty over the company’s trading future. [28]
This has implications for:
- Passive funds and index trackers, which will need to rebalance.
- Travel and corporate services peers, where investors may reassess governance and earnings‑quality risks.
Bapcor, Austal and other notable movers
Tuesday’s session saw some sharp stock‑specific moves:
- Bapcor sank more than 21% to lead ASX 200 decliners after disappointing investors, contributing meaningfully to the index’s overall drop. [29]
- NRW Holdings also fell over 7%, while Austal, Mesoblast, Deep Yellow, and Medibank were among the better performers, each posting gains in the 2–4% range. [30]
These names may see follow‑through interest at the open as traders reassess whether the moves were justified or overdone.
New social media law hits tech and digital platforms
From today, Australia’s new social media age‑restriction law formally comes into force:
- The law bans under‑16s from having accounts on major social platforms including Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, Snapchat, X and others, with a one‑year transition period before penalties begin. [31]
- Apple has rolled out new App Store tools to help developers comply, including age‑range APIs and updated rating controls. [32]
While the largest affected platforms are not listed on the ASX, the law may influence:
- Local ad‑tech, marketing, and child‑focused digital businesses, which could face shifts in traffic, engagement and compliance costs.
- Telecoms and privacy‑focused tech providers, if demand rises for safe‑use alternatives for younger users.
7. Key events and data to watch on 10 December 2025
A number of macro events and data points will shape sentiment through today’s session and into Thursday:
- New Zealand net migration (8:45am local time)
Regional risk sentiment may react to New Zealand labour‑market and migration trends, which are being watched closely by rate‑setters and banks across the Tasman. [33] - US Federal Reserve decision (early Thursday, Australian time)
- Markets are almost certain the Fed will cut by 25 bps, but the dot plot and tone could be pivotal for global equities and bond yields. [34]
- A hawkish cut (emphasising caution and fewer future cuts) could cap risk appetite, while a more dovish message may support cyclicals and growth stocks.
- China policy signals and Central Economic Work Conference
Iron ore traders are closely following Beijing’s upcoming economic work conference, which will outline policy priorities for 2026 and may influence expectations for steel demand and infrastructure spending. [35]
What it all means for ASX traders today
Putting the pieces together for Wednesday’s open:
- Index level: Futures suggest a marginally higher start, but with lingering downside risk if bond yields keep grinding up and iron ore stays weak. [36]
- Miners: Under pressure from iron ore near US$100/t and concerns about rising supply from Simandou, but partially offset by surging gold and silver that favour precious‑metals producers. [37]
- Banks and financials: Mixed. Higher yields and a “no‑cut” RBA may support net interest margins, but also raise concerns around credit quality and housing. [38]
- Rate‑sensitives (tech, real estate, consumer): Likely to stay under scrutiny given the RBA’s hawkish tilt and the global rate debate, despite the prospect of a Fed cut in the US. [39]
- Energy: Facing headwinds from softer oil prices, though any surprise geopolitical disruption could quickly reverse that dynamic. [40]
- FX‑exposed exporters and importers: The stronger AUD is a mild negative for exporters but supportive for companies with large offshore input costs. [41]
As always, this overview is general information only and doesn’t take into account your individual objectives or financial situation. Consider your own research — and, if needed, independent advice — before making investment decisions.
References
1. www.marketindex.com.au, 2. www.marketindex.com.au, 3. m.economictimes.com, 4. www.marketindex.com.au, 5. m.economictimes.com, 6. www.marketindex.com.au, 7. www.rba.gov.au, 8. www.rba.gov.au, 9. www.rba.gov.au, 10. www.abc.net.au, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.investopedia.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. energynews.oedigital.com, 19. energynews.oedigital.com, 20. www.marketindex.com.au, 21. www.abc.net.au, 22. www.ft.com, 23. www.abc.net.au, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.ig.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.businesstravelnews.com, 28. www.sharecafe.com.au, 29. m.economictimes.com, 30. m.economictimes.com, 31. www.macobserver.com, 32. www.macobserver.com, 33. www.sharecafe.com.au, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.bloomberg.com, 36. www.marketindex.com.au, 37. energynews.oedigital.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.abc.net.au, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. www.investing.com
