ASX Today: 8 Key Things to Know Before the Australian Stock Market Opens on 5 December 2025

The Australian share market heads into Friday 5 December 2025 with futures signaling a modestly positive or flat open, after a resource‑ and bank‑led rally on Thursday and a mixed but generally constructive lead from Wall Street. Here’s a detailed look at what’s driving sentiment before the ASX opens.

1. ASX 200 futures point to a slightly firmer – but still cautious – open

Pre‑market updates suggest the S&P/ASX 200 is set to open slightly higher or largely unchanged:

SPI/ASX 200 futures were up around 0.1–0.3% in early morning trade, with various market wraps citing gains of about 10–20 points. ^[1]
Some commentators describe the local market as likely to “edge higher” after Wall Street ended near flat, while others flag an open “little changed” based on futures pricing. ^[2]

Taken together, the futures picture is one of modest optimism rather than a breakout: traders are watching whether Thursday’s rotation into banks and resources can continue against the headwind of rising bond yields and renewed rate‑hike speculation.

2. Wall Street mixed, but global risk sentiment remains broadly supportive

Overnight, U.S. and European markets delivered a mostly constructive backdrop for risk assets:

U.S. indices: The S&P 500 gained about 0.11%, the Nasdaq rose 0.22%, while the Dow slipped 0.07%, closing near flat overall. A drop in Amazon capped broader gains, but strength in technology, industrials and communication services helped keep the S&P near record levels. ^[3]
Fed expectations: Markets are pricing an almost 90% chance of a 25 bps rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week, supported by softer factory orders and mixed but generally non‑alarming labour indicators. ^[4]
Europe: The STOXX 600 added around 0.45%, with the FTSE 100 and DAX also in the green, pointing to steady risk appetite across developed markets. ^[5]
Asia (lead‑in for today):
- Japan’s Nikkei jumped about 2.3% after a strong 30‑year JGB auction eased worries about bond‑market volatility. ^[6]
- Chinese equities extended recent losses, with mainland benchmarks hovering near one‑week lows as investors await further policy signals. ^[7]

For Australian investors, the message is that global equities remain near highs, with sentiment driven by expectations of Fed easing—but there’s still sensitivity to every economic data print, especially around the labour market.

3. Thursday’s ASX session: banks and miners up, real estate smashed

Yesterday’s local trade on Thursday 4 December sets an important backdrop for today:

The S&P/ASX 200 gained 23.2 points (0.27%), closing around 8,618, while the All Ordinaries rose 0.14%. ^[8]
Banks and big miners did the heavy lifting, with BHP, Rio Tinto and South32 all posting strong gains on the back of robust copper and iron ore pricing. ^[9]
Real estate stocks were the clear laggards: the ASX 200 Real Estate index fell more than 2%, as rising bond yields and renewed rate‑hike talk pressured property valuations. ^[10]

Market breadth was weak: a relatively small group of large caps drove the index higher while a majority of stocks ended lower. ^[11] That leaves today’s session finely balanced between:

Follow‑through buying in banks and resources if commodity strength and bond‑market repricing continue, and
Ongoing pressure on interest‑rate‑sensitive sectors such as REITs, high‑PE growth names and consumer cyclicals.

4. Rates, inflation and the RBA: why bond yields are front and centre

The biggest macro story for Australia right now is re‑accelerating inflation and surprisingly strong consumer spending, which are reshaping expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA):

The RBA held the cash rate at 3.60% at its November meeting and signalled a continued focus on taming inflation. ^[12]
October CPI rose 3.8% year‑on‑year, above forecasts and up from earlier in the year, keeping inflation stubbornly above the midpoint of the RBA’s target band. ^[13]
Household spending in October surged 1.3% month‑on‑month and 5.6% year‑on‑year, more than double economists’ expectations. ^[14]

Economists and market pricing have reacted quickly:

EY and other analysts warn that the spending spree could delay or even reverse previously expected 2026 rate cuts, with some now openly discussing the risk of an RBA hike next year. ^[15]
Australian 10‑year bond yields have climbed to around 4.7%, the highest levels of 2025, while three‑year yields are also at multi‑month highs—moves that are already weighing on REITs and other duration‑sensitive stocks. ^[16]

For the equity market, this rate narrative means:

Banks may find support from a steeper yield curve and the prospect of higher margins.
Property and high‑growth tech face valuation headwinds as discount rates rise.
Overall, the RBA path is once again a key driver of sector rotation on the ASX, and any fresh data or commentary that shifts 2026 hike expectations could move markets quickly.

5. Commodities and currency: mixed signals for resources, energy and exporters

Iron ore and metals

Iron ore remains central to the ASX story:

A widely quoted iron ore benchmark (62% Fe CFR) is trading around US$107–108 a tonne, up roughly 0.4% overnight and near the top of its 12‑month range. ^[17]
Chinese iron ore futures (I2601) eased about 0.6% in the latest session, suggesting some consolidation after recent gains. ^[18]

This backdrop tends to support majors like BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue, which already rallied on Thursday and will be closely watched for follow‑through buying or profit‑taking.

Copper, lithium and other base metals have also shown recent strength, helping fuel outsized gains in a number of smaller resources names in Thursday’s session. ^[19]

Oil and energy

Oil prices are firmer:

Brent crude is trading around US$63 per barrel, up close to 1% in the last session, partly driven by renewed supply concerns following Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. ^[20]

Higher crude prices can be a tailwind for energy producers such as Woodside and Santos, while potentially adding incremental cost pressure to airlines, transport and some industrials.

Australian dollar

The Australian dollar is sitting near US$0.66, with RBA data showing 1 AUD buying about 0.6614 USD on 4 December. ^[21] Stronger‑than‑expected trade and spending data have helped lift the currency:

October’s trade surplus widened to about A$4.4 billion, comfortably beating expectations and adding to the positive terms‑of‑trade story. ^[22]

A firmer AUD is supportive of domestic purchasing power but can weigh on exporters and offshore earners, particularly if the move continues.

6. AI, tech and infrastructure: NEXTDC–OpenAI deal in the spotlight

One of the more eye‑catching corporate developments heading into Friday is in the AI and data centre space:

Data‑centre operator NEXTDC (ASX: NXT) has signed a memorandum of understanding with OpenAI to co‑develop a hyperscale AI campus and GPU supercluster at its S7 site in Sydney’s Eastern Creek, a facility with potential capacity of about 550 MW. ^[23]
The deal underscores the massive infrastructure build‑out required for AI workloads and supports the thesis that Australian data‑centre and infrastructure names could be long‑term beneficiaries of the global AI boom. ^[24]

At the same time, OpenAI is formally launching in Australia with an event in Sydney this morning, attended by politicians and the CEOs of major corporates including Commonwealth Bank, Coles and NEXTDC. ^[25] That combination of headline AI news plus high‑profile corporate attendance is likely to keep AI‑adjacent names, cloud infrastructure providers and large enterprise adopters squarely on traders’ watchlists today.

7. Corporate diary: AGMs, EGMs and trading halts to watch on 5 December

Several scheduled events and potential announcement catalysts could influence individual stocks:

Premier Investments AGM

Premier Investments (ASX: PMV) holds its Annual General Meeting today, 5 December 2025, in Melbourne. ^[26]
Investors will be looking for commentary on consumer demand, margins and store performance across brands such as Smiggle and Peter Alexander—especially in light of the latest surge in household spending and ongoing cost‑of‑living pressures.

Arafura Rare Earths EGM and other meetings

Arafura Rare Earths (ASX: ARU) is hosting an Extraordinary General Meeting in Perth this morning, focusing on key shareholder resolutions related to funding and strategic direction. ^[27]
Other small‑ and mid‑cap companies, particularly in the resources sector, also have general meetings scheduled for today, which can drive stock‑specific volatility if new financing, project updates or board changes are announced. ^[28]

Stocks emerging from trading halts

Some names are expected to lift trading halts around the open, often in connection with capital raisings or material announcements:

EQ Resources has flagged that its halt related to a capital raising is likely to be lifted before trading begins today, with full details to be released on the ASX platform. ^[29]
Antares Metals (AM5) and at least one other company have requested halts that run until the earlier of the ASX open on 5 December or the release of key announcements, suggesting potential news flow right on the bell. ^[30]

Traders will want to check the ASX announcements feed closely before and just after the open, especially given recent issues with the exchange’s systems (see below).

8. ASX infrastructure under scrutiny after announcement‑platform outage

Earlier this week, the ASX’s announcements platform suffered an outage that forced around 80 stocks into trading halts because companies could not release price‑sensitive information. ^[31]

While trading and settlement continued, the incident highlighted ongoing technology and governance concerns at the exchange operator, which is already under regulatory and investor pressure after previous system failures and a costly, delayed technology overhaul. ^[32]

For today’s session, the platform is functioning, but the event is a reminder that:

Backlogs of announcements can increase first‑hour volatility, particularly after an outage.
Market confidence in the reliability of ASX infrastructure is now a genuine investment theme, with potential implications for the ASX’s own share price and for the timing of corporate news.

9. Key risks and data still to come

Beyond the open itself, several factors could shape how the Australian stock market trades through the day and into next week:

U.S. economic data tonight (AEST): Investors are looking ahead to US personal spending and consumer sentiment data due early Saturday AEDT, which may fine‑tune expectations for the Fed’s rate decision next week. ^[33]
Domestic sentiment vs. rate fears: Strong spending data is positive for near‑term earnings in retail, hospitality and services, but also raises the risk of tighter policy in 2026, keeping volatility elevated in rate‑sensitive sectors. ^[34]
China policy expectations: With Chinese equities drifting lower and investors awaiting policy cues, any surprise stimulus or guidance from Beijing could quickly shift the outlook for iron ore, coal and base‑metal‑exposed miners. ^[35]

10. Bottom line for the ASX open on 5 December 2025

Going into Friday’s session, the Australian stock market is poised for a cautiously positive or flat open, with ASX 200 futures modestly higher after:

A resource‑ and bank‑led gain on Thursday,
Global markets near record highs, supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut next week, and
Strong domestic spending and trade data that boost growth optimism but also rekindle RBA hike risks.

What to watch most closely at the open:

Resources: Do miners extend Thursday’s rally on still‑firm iron ore and base metals, or does profit‑taking set in?
Banks vs. REITs: Does the steepening yield curve keep favouring banks while real estate continues to struggle?
AI and data‑centre names: How does the market react to the NEXTDC–OpenAI AI campus news and today’s OpenAI launch event in Sydney?
Retail and consumer: Does Premier Investments’ AGM commentary support the bullish spending data—or highlight margin and cost headwinds?
Announcements and halts: Any surprises from companies coming out of trading halts or voting at EGMs/AGMs could create stock‑specific spikes in volume and volatility.

As always, this overview is general information only and not financial advice. Conditions can change quickly once live trading begins, so it’s important for traders and investors to monitor real‑time prices and official ASX announcements throughout the session.