Australia Stock Market Preview: What to Know Before the ASX Opens Monday 8 December 2025

Australia’s sharemarket heads into Monday’s open sitting near record territory, but traders will be walking into a week dominated by central banks, softening iron ore prices, sky‑high gold and a firmer Aussie dollar.

On Friday, the S&P/ASX 200 closed at 8,634.6, up 0.2% for the session and logging a second straight weekly gain, supported by miners and banks even as investors stayed cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting on Tuesday and a key labour market release later in the week. ^[1]

Here’s a detailed look at the global leads, local drivers and key stock stories to know before the ASX opens on Monday 8 December 2025.

Wall Street edges higher as Fed cut expectations harden

Wall Street finished the week with modest gains on Friday as investors digested delayed US economic data and remained confident the Federal Reserve will deliver another rate cut at its meeting later this week. ^[2]

S&P 500: +0.19% to 6,870.40
Dow Jones: +0.22% to 47,954.99
Nasdaq Composite: +0.31% to 23,578.13
All three major indices notched their second consecutive weekly advance. ^[3]

Fresh data showed:

US consumer spending rose 0.3% in September, in line with expectations.
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index, climbed 0.3% for the month and 2.8% year‑on‑year, still above the 2% target but not re‑accelerating. ^[4]
Consumer sentiment improved in early December, with the University of Michigan index at 53.3, beating forecasts. ^[5]

Futures pricing suggests markets see around an 87% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at this week’s FOMC meeting, taking the target range to 3.50%–3.75%. ^[6]

For ASX traders, this combination of slightly softer data plus still‑elevated inflation keeps the “soft landing plus gentle easing” narrative alive – typically supportive for risk assets, growth stocks and rate‑sensitive sectors.

ASX 200 closed the week slightly higher – miners lead, caution lingers

Friday’s local session was choppy but ended in the green:

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO): +0.2% to 8,634.6, marking a second straight weekly gain of 0.2%. ^[7]

Sector performance on Friday (via Reuters/Indopremier) showed: ^[8]

Miners rose 0.9%, hitting a fresh high for the fourth day in a row.
- BHP gained 0.8%, Fortescue jumped 2.2%, though Rio Tinto slipped 1.5%, capping the sector move.
- Robust prices for precious and base metals have pushed the mining sector around 34% higher year‑to‑date.
Gold stocks climbed 1.4%, with Evolution Mining up 2.6%.
Lithium names were strong: Mineral Resources added 4.6% and IGO surged 7.1% after an upgraded demand outlook from UBS.
Financials rose 0.4%, with all four major banks finishing in positive territory.
Consumer discretionary names fell 1.2% as markets braced for a potentially higher‑for‑longer local rate path, while energy stocks fell 0.6%.

Investors remain wary despite the index’s resilience. With markets already discounting an RBA hold on Tuesday and some chance of rate hikes later in 2026, Friday’s gains came with a clear sense of “buy the dips, but don’t over‑commit.” ^[9]

Futures suggest a cautious, slightly softer open

ASX futures are pointing to a muted start on Monday:

S&P/ASX 200 December futures settled around 8,622 points on Friday, down just 0.03% on the day. ^[10]
A global index snapshot on Sunday showed ASX 200 futures trading near the same level, down only a handful of points, indicating little change in sentiment over the weekend. ^[11]

That implies a marginally weaker open relative to Friday’s cash close of 8,634.6 – essentially a flat to slightly negative start unless there’s fresh news before the bell.

Central banks in focus: RBA on Tuesday, Fed mid‑week

The coming week is dominated by central bank decisions and will shape how far this late‑year rally can run.

Reserve Bank of Australia – Tuesday 9 December

The RBA is widely expected to keep the cash rate at 3.60% at Tuesday’s meeting. ^[12]
Recent data show:
- Q3 GDP grew 0.4% quarter‑on‑quarter, 2.1% year‑on‑year, the fastest annual pace since Q3 2023. ^[13]
- Household spending in October rose 1.3% month‑on‑month and 5.6% year‑on‑year, pointing to surprisingly resilient demand. ^[14]
- Underlying inflation has been stickier than the RBA hoped, with trimmed‑mean inflation still well above target. ^[15]

Rate markets are now pricing no change this week, but roughly 30+ basis points of cumulative hikes by the end of 2026, signalling that investors see a meaningful risk of further tightening if data stay hot. ^[16]

Local traders will parse Tuesday’s statement and press conference for:

Any shift in tone from “on hold but patient” to more openly hawkish;
How the Board balances robust GDP and spending against still‑elevated inflation;
Guidance on the timing and likelihood of future hikes or cuts.

US Federal Reserve – decision late Wednesday (US) / Thursday (Aust.)

The Fed already cut rates in October, and markets now price a high probability of another 25 bp cut at this week’s meeting, taking the target range to 3.50–3.75%. ^[17]
Fed officials have signalled internal disagreement: some worry about stubborn inflation, others about a cooling labour market. ^[18]

For the ASX, the key is not just whether the Fed cuts, but what it says about future moves. A dovish statement could:

Support global equities and risk currencies like the AUD;
Flatten or lower global yields, easing pressure on growth stocks and high‑multiple names.

A more cautious tone on inflation, or hints that December might be the last cut for a while, could see volatility pick up.

Commodities: iron ore eases, gold stays elevated, oil broadly steady

Iron ore – supply loosens, China demand cools

Iron ore – critical for the big miners on the ASX – softened at the end of last week:

Dalian January iron ore futures fell about 1% to 785.5 yuan (around US$111 per tonne) on Friday and finished the week marginally lower.
Singapore benchmark futures slipped 0.9% to US$103.3 per tonne, though they were still on track for a weekly gain of around 1.5%. ^[19]

Analysts note:

Year‑end shipments are rising, especially out of Brazil, loosening seaborne supply into China.
Chinese steel demand is softening as mills cut output, pointing to a market surplus this year and in coming years.
Longer‑term, the ramp‑up of Guinea’s Simandou project is expected to add substantial high‑grade supply, putting a structural lid on prices. ^[20]

For BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue, the near‑term picture is still supported by positive macro sentiment and restocking demand, but traders should be aware that the fundamental backdrop is gradually turning more bearish.

Gold – hanging near record highs

Gold remains one of the standout stories of 2025:

On Friday, spot gold traded around US$4,220–4,230 per ounce, up about 0.5% for the day, helped by a softer US dollar and expectations of a Fed rate cut. ^[21]
For the week, gold was roughly flat to slightly lower, but it remains near record levels after a remarkable run from about US$2,600 at the start of the year to above US$4,300 at its 2025 peaks. ^[22]

Silver has also surged – up more than 100% year‑to‑date and sitting just below its recent record highs – underscoring the strength of the precious‑metals complex. ^[23]

Implications for the ASX:

Strong gold prices continue to support local producers and developers.
Evolution Mining’s outperformance on Friday (+2.6%) is consistent with the theme of investors rotating into quality gold names as a hedge against policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk. ^[24]

Oil – modest gains, no major shock

Crude oil prices were firmer late in the week, but not dramatically so:

Brent crude recently traded around US$63–64 per barrel, with a weekly change close to flat. ^[25]
WTI crude hovered near US$60 per barrel, having gained roughly 2–3% over the week on signs of tighter supply and geopolitical jitters. ^[26]

For the ASX:

Oil prices at these levels are supportive for energy names but not high enough to dramatically change the inflation outlook.
Energy lagged on Friday, suggesting investors are more focused on rates and growth than on a near‑term oil squeeze. ^[27]

Currency watch: Aussie dollar back in the mid‑US$0.66s

The Australian dollar has quietly mounted a comeback:

Historical rate data show AUD/USD around US$0.6640–0.6645 in early December, little changed over the past couple of sessions but well off the sub‑US$0.60 lows seen earlier in 2025. ^[28]
A weekly FX note from OFX reports the Aussie climbing to around US$0.6611 late last week as markets pared back expectations for further RBA rate cuts and started to contemplate eventual hikes if inflation stays sticky. ^[29]

A stronger AUD tends to:

Pressure exporters and companies with large USD revenues;
Help importers and retailers by easing the cost of imported goods;
Signal improving risk appetite globally.

Into Monday’s open, currency moves look broadly supportive of risk assets and rate‑sensitive sectors, but traders should watch for volatility around any surprise headlines from the US or China.

Local stock & sector stories to watch on Monday

1. Miners, lithium and the iron ore question

Miners have been the backbone of the index, with the sector up nearly 34% year‑to‑date, supported by high iron ore, copper and gold prices. ^[30]
Lithium names such as Mineral Resources and IGO surged on Friday after an upbeat demand outlook from UBS, highlighting continued speculative interest in battery materials despite concerns about supply gluts. ^[31]

Monday’s trade could see some consolidation if iron ore weakness continues, but any rebound in futures or positive China headlines could quickly reignite buying in the heavyweights.

2. Banks and the RBA

The big four banks rose around 0.4% collectively on Friday, despite rising expectations that the RBA may need to tighten further in 2026 if inflation remains sticky. ^[32]
Broker commentary continues to highlight valuation gaps between banks and quality growth names such as CSL, with some fund managers suggesting bank earnings growth looks modest relative to price multiples. ^[33]

With the RBA decision just a day away, expect position‑squaring in the banking sector on Monday – especially in high‑beta names and regional banks.

3. Gold producers

With gold near record territory and volatility in other risk assets, Australian gold miners remain a favoured defensive trade. ^[34]
Technical research from local providers has highlighted names like Evolution Mining as poised to “trend higher” if gold holds above US$4,200. ^[35]

Any further move up in the gold price – particularly if US data disappoint or the Fed under‑delivers – could see fresh inflows into the gold complex.

4. IPOs, mid‑caps and index changes

A cluster of stock‑specific stories could generate stock‑level volatility:

Saluda Medical suffered a steep share price fall on its ASX debut late last week, illustrating how unforgiving the market can be for richly valued healthcare floats. ^[36]
DroneShield has seen heavy two‑way trade, with AFR reporting that loyal retail holders “bought the dip” following a sharp post‑result sell‑off. ^[37]
Barton Gold Holdings (ASX: BGD) announced that its shares will be included in the S&P Dow Jones ASX All Ordinaries Index, adding it to the universe of Australia’s 500 largest stocks and potentially driving index‑related buying. ^[38]
Smartkarma notes that the December 2025 ASX index rebalance will see 20 additions and 20 removals across the ASX 50, 100 and 200, with significant passive flow implications beginning to show up in pre‑rebalance trading. ^[39]

Traders should review any holdings involved in index changes, as these can create short‑term dislocations that are tradable on both the long and short side.

5. Growth vs speculation

Commentary from AFIC and other long‑term managers continues to highlight an unusual 2025 dynamic: speculative small caps have outperformed blue chips, despite patchy earnings and elevated leverage, while quality names like CSL have lagged. ^[40]

Motley Fool and other broker round‑ups published on Sunday place CSL and a handful of other large caps on their “buy for next week” lists, suggesting a potential rotation back towards quality growth if central bank risk passes without incident. ^[41]

Key macro data and events: Monday 8 December and the week ahead

While Monday itself is relatively light for domestic data, it sits at the front of a high‑impact week.

According to IG and other macro calendars: ^[42]

Monday 8 December

China – Trade balance (November): Fresh read‑through on global demand and commodity imports, including iron ore and coal.
Japan – Q3 GDP revision: Analysts expect a slight downgrade, which could influence risk sentiment in Asia and the yen. ^[43]

Tuesday 9 December

Australia – NAB business confidence survey: A gauge of how higher rates and cost pressures are impacting corporate sentiment.
RBA interest rate decision & press conference: The main domestic event; widely expected hold at 3.60% but with hawkish risk. ^[44]

Wednesday 10 December

China – CPI and PPI (inflation data): Critical for assessing deflation risks and commodity demand.
US – ADP employment and JOLTS job openings (released Tuesday US time): Labour‑market health check ahead of the Fed. ^[45]

Thursday 11 December

US – FOMC interest rate decision: The global event of the week; markets expect a 25 bp cut.
US – Producer Price Index and weekly jobless claims: Additional clues on inflation and growth momentum. ^[46]

Later in the week

Australia – Labour market report: Highlighted by local analysts as potentially more market‑moving than the RBA decision itself, given its implications for wage inflation and household demand. ^[47]

For investors, Monday is likely to be about positioning ahead of these events rather than pricing in new information.

What this all means for ASX traders on Monday

Putting the pieces together:

Leads from Wall Street are mildly positive, with US indices higher and Fed cut expectations intact – a supportive but not euphoric backdrop. ^[48]
The ASX 200 enters the week near record levels, with miners and banks in control but speculative pockets still dominating performance tables. ^[49]
Futures point to a flat or slightly weaker open, suggesting traders are waiting for the RBA and Fed before taking big directional bets. ^[50]
Iron ore is softening on supply and demand concerns, while gold remains close to all‑time highs – a combination that favours gold miners and diversified resource players over single‑commodity iron ore exposure. ^[51]
The Aussie dollar’s rebound into the mid‑US$0.66 range reflects improving global risk appetite and fading expectations of near‑term RBA cuts, with implications for exporters and importers alike. ^[52]
Index rebalances, new inclusions and recent IPO volatility (Saluda Medical, Barton Gold, DroneShield) create fertile ground for stock‑specific trades, even if the broader market treads water. ^[53]

Practical watch‑list for the open

Macro‑sensitive sectors:
- Banks, REITs, high‑P/E tech and healthcare (e.g., CSL) around Tuesday’s RBA and the Fed mid‑week.
Resource names:
- BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue, IGO, Mineral Resources – watch iron ore futures and China trade numbers.
Gold plays:
- Evolution Mining and established producers if gold holds above US$4,200.
Index movers & mid‑caps:
- Barton Gold and any stocks tied to S&P/ASX 50/100/200 rebalances highlighted in Friday’s announcements and Smartkarma’s flow analysis.

Note: This article is for information and commentary only and does not constitute financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly before the ASX opens on Monday 8 December 2025; investors should consider their own objectives and seek professional advice where appropriate.