Sydney, Jan 9, 2026, 22:51 AEDT — Market closed
Australian shares ended barely changed on Friday, with Rio Tinto sliding 6.2% and dragging miners lower, while Codan jumped 16.8% to lead gainers. The S&P/ASX 200 edged down 0.03% at the close as oil prices firmed and the Aussie dollar held near $0.67.
The late-week drift masked a bigger question hanging over the market: whether Rio and Glencore can turn revived merger discussions into a deal that would reshape the global mining order. A tie-up would put copper — a key metal for power grids and data centres — at the centre of a consolidation push that has already thinned the field of major producers.
Investors also kept one eye on global rates, ahead of a U.S. jobs report that could reset expectations for how fast the Federal Reserve can keep cutting. Reuters reporting on the labour market has pointed to slower hiring and an unemployment rate expected to dip, a mix that can still jolt bond yields and the dollar.
In the merger talks, analysts said Rio’s push for more copper exposure looked logical but warned that price — and politics — will decide it. “The share market tells you what you want to know. Investors are not happy with this,” said Hugh Dive, chief investment officer at Atlas Funds Management, pointing to the sector’s mixed history with mega-deals; RBC’s Kaan Peker flagged potential Chinese pushback given Chinalco’s stake in Rio. reuters.com
Away from the miners, energy stocks led the market higher on the day, while financials slipped and industrials lagged. The benchmark remains about 4.4% below its 52-week high, leaving little room for stumbles if offshore data turn ugly.
Codan’s surge followed a trading update forecasting first-half FY26 group revenue of about $394 million and underlying net profit after tax of at least $70 million, with results due on Feb. 19. The company said gold detector sales in Africa helped lift its metal detection revenue about 46% from a year earlier.
BlueScope Steel also stayed in focus as takeover talk rippled through the market. AustralianSuper backed BlueScope’s rejection of a $30-a-share approach from SGH and Steel Dynamics, saying it would only support a bid “materially higher” than that level. reuters.com
But there is plenty that can still go wrong. The Rio-Glencore talks are early and could stall on valuation, coal exposure or regulatory hurdles, while a surprise in U.S. payrolls can whip rates and commodities around before Australian investors get a chance to react.
Next up is the U.S. Employment Situation report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, ahead of the next ASX session on Monday. Investors will also watch for any fresh statements on the Rio-Glencore talks, with an overseas-market timeline pointing to a Feb. 5 deadline under UK takeover rules.
