Australian shares eased lower on Monday as investors positioned cautiously ahead of a closely watched Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting, with losses in heavyweight miners offset by a sharp rally in lithium stocks, firmer telcos and takeover-driven gains in property. [1]
Australia stock market today: key numbers (8 December 2025)
Date: Monday, 8 December 2025 (Sydney)
Exchange: Australian Securities Exchange (ASX)
Headline moves
- S&P/ASX 200 index: 8,624.4, down 10.2 points (-0.12%).
The index traded between 8,595.6 and 8,634.6 and remains less than 6% below its record high of 9,115.2 set in October. [2] - All Ordinaries: 8,915.0, also down 0.12%. [3]
- Breadth: In the broader S&P/ASX 300, advancers slightly outnumbered decliners 149 to 124, highlighting rotation rather than a broad risk-off move. [4]
- Currency: The Australian dollar firmed to around US$0.664–0.665, helped by shifting expectations for future RBA moves. [5]
Sector scoreboard
- Best performers
- Communication Services: +1.05%
- Real Estate: +0.26%
- Financials: +0.22% [6]
- Lagging sectors
- Utilities: -0.86%
- Materials: -0.80%
- Energy: -0.42% [7]
Global leads were modestly positive: US futures pointed slightly higher, after Friday’s Wall Street session saw the S&P 500 gain about 0.2% and edge closer to record territory, but those cues were overshadowed locally by central-bank uncertainty and a pullback in several major resource names. [8]
Miners drag while lithium stocks surge
Monday’s trade was defined by a split within the resources complex: bulk miners and gold names fell, while lithium producers rallied hard.
Heavyweight miners under pressure
The Materials sector fell 0.8%, dragged lower by declines in iron ore and gold-linked names: [9]
- BHP Group (BHP): down around 0.8%
- Rio Tinto (RIO): off roughly 0.9%
- South32 (S32), Whitehaven Coal (WHC), Perseus Mining (PRU) and other resource names also finished in the red. [10]
Market commentators pointed to a second session of weakness in iron ore prices, some cooling in gold after recent record highs, and a generally cautious tone toward cyclical exposure ahead of the RBA decision. [11]
Lithium leads the gainers
In stark contrast, lithium and battery materials stocks delivered some of the best gains on the ASX 200:
- Liontown Resources (LTR): up about 14.8%, the standout performer on the benchmark. [12]
- Pilbara Minerals (PLS): up 6.1%. [13]
- Mineral Resources (MIN): up 2.6%, supported by its lithium and iron ore exposure. [14]
MarketIndex noted that a 3% rise in the benchmark lithium carbonate contract on China’s GFEX helped “recharge” sentiment toward the beaten-up lithium complex. [15]
Separately, local coverage highlighted that lithium shares continued to ride the tailwind of a recent UBS report flagging the potential for a lithium deficit by late 2026, shifting the narrative from oversupply worries to renewed medium‑term scarcity. [16]
The result was a textbook “split session” in resources: the benchmark miners dragged on the index, while lithium names — many of which had sold off sharply earlier in 2025 — found aggressive dip‑buyers.
National Storage’s $4bn takeover lifts REITs and income plays
Another big theme for the Australia stock market today was corporate activity in property.
$4bn bid for National Storage REIT
National Storage REIT (NSR) gained around 2–3% after confirming it has agreed to a $4 billion takeover by a consortium led by Canadian asset manager Brookfield and Singapore’s GIC. [17]
Key deal terms:
- Offer price of $2.86 per security, representing:
- A 26.5% premium to NSR’s last traded price before the approach, and
- An 11% premium to net tangible asset value. [18]
- The NSR board has unanimously recommended the scheme, subject to no superior proposal emerging and an independent expert deeming it in the best interests of securityholders. [19]
The bid is the latest in a string of offshore interest in Australian real assets, and it helped the Real Estate sector finish in positive territory. Mirvac and several other listed property trusts also closed higher. [20]
Other income and infrastructure news
Elsewhere across yield-sensitive names:
- APA Group (APA) rose after S&P Global Ratings affirmed its BBB credit rating and lowered the threshold at which leverage would trigger a downgrade — a shift that effectively gives APA more than $1 billion of extra funding capacity for growth projects. [21]
- Charter Hall Group (CHC) declared an interim distribution of 24.83 cents per security for 1H FY26, 85% franked, reinforcing the appeal of listed property as a partially income‑driven play. [22]
Despite these positives, the Utilities sector still closed 0.86% lower, reflecting weakness in other names and ongoing investor caution around regulated returns and capital intensity in a higher-for-longer inflation environment. [23]
Telcos, tech and financials cushion the fall
Away from resources and property, Communication Services, tech and financials helped limit losses in the Australian sharemarket today.
Communication Services: quiet outperformance
Communication Services was the best-performing sector, up 1.05%. [24]
- Telstra (TLS) climbed about 1.2% as investors continued to favour its relatively steady cash flows and 5G‑driven growth story. [25]
- News.com.au noted gains in TPG Telecom and Tuas Limited, underscoring broad support for telcos as a quasi‑defensive exposure in a choppy macro backdrop. [26]
Kalkine’s midday sector wrap also highlighted Communications as a relative bright spot, framing the move as part of a rotation into scalable, recurring‑revenue business models and away from commodity-sensitive plays. [27]
Tech and platform names inch higher
The All Tech index eked out a 0.08% gain, with: [28]
- Nextdc (NXT) up about 2.1%
- Wisetech Global (WTC) up roughly 0.8%
- REA Group (REA) higher by about 1.9%
These moves followed another firm session for US technology stocks and ongoing enthusiasm around data‑centre, cloud and logistics‑software themes, even as valuations across parts of the growth complex remain elevated. [29]
Financials stay resilient
The Financials sector added 0.22%: [30]
- Commonwealth Bank (CBA) advanced around 0.8%
- Major insurers QBE and IAG each gained about 1%
Broker commentary in recent days has been mixed on the banks — with some research houses flagging stretched valuations and regulatory risk, while others point to still‑solid dividends and capital positions — but on Monday they acted as a stabiliser for the index as miners rolled over. [31]
Index reshuffle and stock‑specific stories to watch
Beyond the sector‑level moves, several stock‑specific catalysts shaped the Australia stock market today.
S&P/ASX 200 rebalance hits Boss Energy, HMC and more
The December S&P Dow Jones Indices rebalance is approaching, and it is already moving share prices:
- Boss Energy (BOE) was among the day’s weakest, sliding about 4.5%; ABC reported it will lose its place in the ASX 200 next month, alongside HMC Capital, which also fell. [32]
- Separate coverage from Motley Fool noted that Corporate Travel Management will also be removed from the benchmark, with six stocks in total set to exit the index as part of the reshuffle. [33]
Index changes can weigh on outgoing constituents as index funds rebalance, while providing a liquidity and sentiment tailwind for incoming names.
Life360, Telix and other notable movers
Other stock‑level stories included:
- Life360 (360): dropped about 3.8%, featuring prominently in MarketIndex’s worst blue‑chip list. ABC’s markets blog noted the family‑tracking app developer has been under pressure following a director share sale and remains volatile after a strong multi‑year run. [34]
- Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX): slipped around 1.5% despite announcing that the first patient had been dosed in Part 2 of its Phase 3 prostate cancer trial, a key milestone for its oncology pipeline. [35]
- APA Group (APA): as noted earlier, benefited from a more favourable credit outlook from S&P, which analysts say broadens its funding flexibility for future energy‑infrastructure projects. [36]
Separately, a widely read “18 Share Tips” feature from The Bull showcased a divided analyst view across sectors, with buy calls on stocks like Tyro Payments and Ramsay Health Care, holds on National Storage REIT and Qube, and sell ratings on names including QBE, Harvey Norman, Medibank and Bank of Queensland. The spread of opinions underscores how polarised valuations have become between rate‑sensitive defensives, cyclicals and growth names. [37]
Macro backdrop: RBA on hold, Fed cut in focus
RBA expected to hold at 3.6% but tone is crucial
The RBA Monetary Policy Board meets 8–9 December, with the decision and statement due on Tuesday afternoon (9 December, 2:30 pm AEDT). [38]
Across multiple previews:
- Analysts overwhelmingly expect the RBA to leave the cash rate at 3.60%, after three cuts earlier this year. [39]
- A Market News (MNI) preview frames the likely decision as an “extended hold”, with risks to the outlook “balanced” and the Board wanting more data on how restrictive current settings are. [40]
- Bloomberg and other outlets note that overnight-indexed swaps price a long pause but have shifted to pencilling in a possible return to tightening from mid‑2026, reflecting renewed inflation pressures and resilient domestic demand. [41]
Recent data show:
- Headline CPI up 3.8% year‑on‑year in October (from 3.6%), and
- Trimmed mean inflation at 3.3%, above the RBA’s 2–3% target band. [42]
Some local economists now expect the RBA to keep rates on hold through much of 2026, while others warn that if inflation proves sticky, the next move could be a hike rather than a cut. [43]
That divergence in rate expectations is one reason why intraday moves have been choppy but contained, with volumes subdued and traders reluctant to take big directional bets before hearing from Governor Michele Bullock.
Fed and global markets
Globally, attention is centered on the US Federal Reserve’s December meeting, where markets now assign around an 86–87% chance of a 25‑basis‑point rate cut from the current 3.75–4.0% target range. [44]
Major banks including Nomura, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley have all swung toward forecasting a Fed cut this week, citing softer US data and a desire to insure against labour‑market weakness. [45]
This has helped global equities hover near record highs and supported risk sentiment, but for the ASX on Monday the more immediate story was local: RBA uncertainty plus commodity swings.
Meanwhile, China’s latest trade figures showed exports remaining solid even as shipments to the US slump, a mixed signal for Australian commodity demand that helped keep iron ore and base metals in focus for traders. [46]
Short‑term ASX 200 outlook: sideways until central banks speak
Technical commentary from MarketIndex’s ChartWatch describes the recent pattern in the S&P/ASX 200 as a series of “nothing‑much” candles, with the index stuck in a tight range around 8,600 and volumes “ground to a halt”. The analysis suggests that the next decisive large daily move is likely to set the path of least resistance for the rest of the year. [47]
IG’s Week Ahead preview for 8 December likewise flags high event risk — combining the RBA meeting, the Fed decision and key global data — and notes that Australian equities may stay range‑bound until those macro catalysts clear. [48]
Seasonality is another talking point:
- A Forex.com outlook on the ASX 200 in December argues that the index typically enjoys positive “Santa rally” bias, but that any year‑end surge hinges on key support levels holding and central banks avoiding hawkish surprises. [49]
Taken together, the message for the very near term is:
- The trend remains broadly constructive with the index not far from record territory,
- But directional conviction is low until investors see how the RBA and the Fed frame the inflation‑growth trade‑off going into 2026.
2026 forecasts: what strategists are saying about the ASX
Beyond today’s moves, several fresh forecasts and analyses dated 8 December 2025 sketch out a roadmap for the ASX 200 in 2026.
IG: ASX 200 could push toward 9,300–9,500 by end‑2026
In a detailed 2026 market outlook, IG analyst Tony Sycamore notes: [50]
- With only a few weeks left in 2025, the ASX 200 is up about 5.4% year‑to‑date, with the accumulation index(which includes reinvested dividends) ahead roughly 8.7%.
- The index underperformed many global peers this year, partly due to its limited tech exposure and the drag from resurgent inflation on RBA policy.
- On valuations, the ASX 200 trades on a 12‑month forward P/E of about 18.1x, well above its long‑term average of 14.8x, leaving less room for disappointment.
Sector‑wise in 2025:
- Materials: +24.5%
- Industrials: +11.4%
- Utilities: +9.2%
- Health care: -20.4%
- Information technology: -15.4%
IG argues that materials — buoyed by improving Chinese conditions and favourable commodity price signals — look best placed to outperform again in 2026, while beaten‑up health care and tech require more selective stock‑picking.
On the macro side, the report highlights:
- GDP: Australian growth is expected to stabilise around 2% in 2026, after a stronger‑than‑expected rebound in mid‑2025.
- Inflation: Trimmed mean inflation is forecast to peak near 3.2% in H1 2026 before easing toward 2.7% by year‑end, still a touch above the RBA’s target midpoint.
- Unemployment: Seen hovering around 4.4% through 2026–27, slightly above today’s level but low by historical standards.
- RBA: Having cut by 75 bps in 2025, the Bank is expected to stay on hold for at least the first half of 2026, balancing inflation against growth and employment risks. [51]
Technically, IG suggests that if the late‑November low near 8,383 holds, the ASX 200 could: [52]
- Rebound toward 8,850 by the end of 2025, and
- Grind higher into a 9,300–9,500 range by the end of 2026, where multi‑year trend‑channel resistance looms.
These projections are not guarantees, but they underscore a base‑case of moderate upside with higher volatility as markets navigate a late‑cycle environment.
Rate-path uncertainty remains the wild card
Other industry outlooks published today stress that uncertainty around the RBA’s next move in 2026 is one of the key swing factors for the ASX:
- InvestorDaily, for example, highlights views that 3.6% may be close to a neutral rate, consistent with a labour market that is “close to balanced” and GDP growing near potential — but flags that this is an unusual end to an easing cycle and could change if inflation re‑accelerates. [53]
- A separate preview notes that Bank of America expects the RBA to keep rates on hold throughout 2026, letting inflation glide back toward target rather than reacting to every overshoot, while some local banks have scrapped forecasts for additional cuts. [54]
For equity investors, this implies:
- Rate‑sensitive sectors such as REITs, infrastructure and high‑multiple growth stocks could be volatile as the market toggles between “higher for longer” and “return to easing” narratives.
- Cyclical and commodity names will remain tethered to global growth, China’s trajectory and the path of Fed policy as much as to local conditions.
What today’s session means for investors
While every investor’s situation is different, a few broad themes emerge from Australia’s stock market today:
- This is still a rotation, not a rout.
The ASX 200’s modest 0.12% decline, coupled with positive breadth in the ASX 300, points to capital moving between sectors — away from large diversified miners and some utilities, toward lithium, telcos, selected tech and quality financials — rather than a wholesale dash for cash. [55] - Central banks are in the driver’s seat.
With the RBA decision tomorrow and the Fed meeting later in the week, policy tone is likely to dominate short‑term moves. A more hawkish‑than‑expected RBA or a less dovish Fed could temporarily pressure high‑valuation and rate‑sensitive names; a benign outcome could support the much‑talked‑about Santa rally. [56] - Valuations are elevated in aggregate.
With the ASX 200 trading well above its historical average on forward earnings multiples, future gains may rely more heavily on actual earnings delivery than on further multiple expansion, especially in defensives and growth stocks. [57] - Stock selection is crucial.
Today’s divergence between lithium winners, resource laggards, REITs boosted by takeovers and index reshuffle losers like Boss Energy shows why stock‑specific catalysts matter as much as top‑down calls.
As always, this coverage is general information only and not financial advice. Anyone considering investing should assess their own objectives, risk tolerance and financial situation, and, where appropriate, seek guidance from a licensed financial adviser.
References
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