Aviva plc Stock on 3 December 2025: Share Price, Q3 Upgrade, Dividend Yield and 2026 Forecasts

Aviva plc’s share price has cooled slightly after a powerful 2025 rally, but the FTSE 100 insurer remains front‑and‑centre in markets thanks to upgraded profit targets, the integration of Direct Line, and one of the most eye‑catching dividend yields in the UK large‑cap universe.

As of midday trading on 3 December 2025, Aviva shares change hands at around 639p in London, down about 0.8% on the day yet still roughly 34% higher than a year ago. ^[1] The New York–traded ADR has done even better, with a year‑to‑date total return of about 55%, comfortably ahead of the FTSE 100 benchmark. ^[2]

Against that backdrop, investors are asking a simple question: after such a strong run, does Aviva stock still offer attractive upside into 2026 – or is most of the good news already in the price?

Aviva share price today (3 December 2025)

According to London Stock Exchange data compiled by the Financial Times, Aviva’s share price on 3 December 2025 is about 639.2p, with around 3.9 million shares traded by 12:01 GMT. The stock is down modestly on the day, but the one‑year gain of 33–34% underlines how strong 2025 has been for shareholders. ^[3]

The rally has not been a straight line. When Aviva unveiled its new medium‑term financial targets alongside the Q3 2025 trading update on 13 November, investors initially baulked: the shares fell more than 6% on the day, dragging the life‑insurance sub‑index lower as the FTSE 100 snapped a run of record highs. ^[4]

Since then, however, the stock has stabilised in the 640p–660p area, helped by a steady stream of upbeat commentary about dividends and capital returns, and by the perception that Aviva remains reasonably valued despite the rerating. By late October, the share price was already up close to 40% year‑to‑date, making Aviva one of the standout performers in the FTSE 100 this year. TS2 Tech

Q3 2025 trading update: growth, Direct Line integration and higher ambitions

The turning point for sentiment this autumn was Aviva’s Q3 2025 trading update and “In Focus” investor event on 13 November. Management used the occasion not just to recap the first nine months of the year, but to pull key financial targets forward by a full year and unveil a new three‑year plan. ^[5]

Key operational highlights from the first nine months of 2025 include: ^[6]

General Insurance (GI) premiums up 12% to £10.0bn, with particularly strong momentum in UK & Ireland and continued growth in Canada despite portfolio pruning.
Wealth net flows up 8% to £8.3bn, equivalent to about 6% of opening assets under management, driven by platform and workplace pensions.
Health premiums up 14%, reflecting rising demand for private healthcare solutions.
Retirement sales at £5.3bn, down around 27% year‑on‑year after exceptionally strong BPA activity in 2024, but still underpinned by robust demand for bulk annuities and individual retirement products.
The undiscounted combined operating ratio (COR) in GI improved to 94.4%, from 96.8% a year earlier, thanks to better pricing and fewer weather‑related losses.

On the balance‑sheet side, Aviva reported a Solvency II shareholder cover ratio of 177% after the Direct Line acquisition, and centre liquidity of around £2.2bn at the end of October 2025 – both consistent with a strong capital position. ^[7]

Most importantly, management now expects full‑year 2025 operating profit of about £2.2bn, including roughly £150m of contribution from Direct Line. That means Aviva is on track to hit its previous 2026 profit and capital‑generation targets one year early. ^[8]

New three‑year plan: EPS growth, ROE and cash remittances

Having effectively “completed” the old plan ahead of schedule, Aviva has set out more ambitious goals for 2025–2028: ^[9]

Operating EPS growth of 11% per year through 2028
Return on equity (ROE) above 20% by 2028
More than £7bn of cash remittances over 2026–2028, up from the previous >£5.8bn target for 2024–2026

These targets are underpinned by the Direct Line deal and a deliberate shift towards capital‑light earnings – businesses like wealth, workplace pensions and protection that require less regulatory capital than traditional life insurance. Management has also raised its estimate of cost synergies from Direct Line to £225m and confirmed expected capital synergies of at least £500m by around the end of 2026. ^[10]

Independent analysts have broadly welcomed the new plan. Hargreaves Lansdown, for instance, describes 2025 as a “good year so far”, highlighting upgraded profit targets, clearer visibility on buybacks and solid progress integrating Direct Line. However, it also notes that growth is expected to be weighted towards 2027 and 2028, which may help explain why the market reaction in November was initially muted. ^[11]

A separate analysis on Seeking Alpha characterises the strategy as one that “underpins upside and yield appeal”, pointing out that Aviva’s own EPS growth target of 11% sits slightly above some external models that estimate 8–10% annual growth over 2025–2028. ^[12]

Strategic moves: Direct Line, green lending, cyber risk and AI

Beyond the headline numbers, Aviva has been busy reshaping its portfolio and sharpening its operational toolkit in the second half of 2025. Recent developments include: TS2 Tech

Green lending: Aviva Investors has arranged a £32m green loan for a new 110,000 sq ft urban logistics warehouse in Enfield, North London. The loan follows the Loan Market Association’s Green Loan Principles and targets top‑tier sustainability certifications such as EPC A+ and BREEAM “Outstanding”, aligning with Aviva’s push into sustainable, long‑duration real assets.
Cyber risk training: The group has launched a “Cyber Fundamentals” online training course, offered free to policyholders. The initiative focuses on phishing awareness, password hygiene and data‑loss prevention, with the aim of reducing cyber‑related claims and stabilising GI loss ratios over time.
Fraud clamp‑down and By Miles exit: Aviva claims to be blocking around two‑thirds of fraudulent UK motor insurance applications at quote stage, thanks to enhanced analytics. The group is also exiting its stake in usage‑based insurtech By Miles following the Direct Line acquisition, simplifying its motor portfolio to focus on core brands.
Aviva Investors reshuffle and AI push: Within Aviva Investors, a €2.9bn high‑yield strategy is being closed, with assets redeployed into other mandates as the firm tilts towards shorter‑duration, higher‑quality credit. Aviva has also appointed UST as its exclusive tech partner for Aviva Investors, establishing centres of excellence in generative AI and data science.
AIG Life transfer: A Part VII transfer is planned to move all policies of Aviva Protection UK Limited (the former AIG Life UK business) into Aviva Life & Pensions UK Limited by 31 December 2025, subject to court approval. An independent actuary has concluded the move should not materially harm policyholder security or service.

Taken together, these actions point to an insurer that is:

De‑cluttering its legal and business structure,
Leaning into sustainability and AI as differentiators, and
Tightening risk controls in lines like UK motor and cyber.

Dividend story: a 5.5–5.9% yield that keeps income investors watching

One of the main reasons Aviva keeps appearing in Google Discover feeds is its income profile.

For 2025, the Board declared an interim dividend of 13.1p per share, paid on 16 October, representing a 10% year‑on‑year increase. Management has indicated that the final dividend for 2025 is expected to grow broadly in line with that 10% uplift, subject to conditions. TS2 Tech+1

Depending on the data provider and whether trailing or prospective dividends are used, Aviva’s yield currently screens around 5.5–5.9%, clearly ahead of the FTSE 100 average and many European insurance peers. ^[13]

Hargreaves Lansdown calculates a prospective 12‑month yield of about 5.9%, versus a ten‑year average of 8.7%. The drop in the average yield reflects the fact that the share price has risen much faster than the dividend in recent years, compressing the yield even as payouts grow. ^[14]

Crucially for shareholders, Aviva has also flagged a return to regular share buybacks, with repurchases expected to resume around March 2026 once integration of Direct Line is more advanced and the capital position fully reflects the transaction. ^[15]

For investors who prioritise income, the combination of:

a mid‑single‑digit yield,
a stated policy of growing the dividend, and
the prospect of buybacks from 2026

is a powerful draw – albeit one that depends heavily on Aviva hitting its earnings and cash‑generation targets. TS2 Tech+1

What analysts are saying: 2026 price targets and consensus view

Sell‑side analysts are far from unanimous on Aviva, but most still lean positive.

A recent MarketBeat summary of broker research notes that Citigroup has trimmed its Aviva price target to 671p (from 687p) and maintained a neutral rating, implying modest upside from late‑November levels. Overall consensus is described as “Moderate Buy”, with an average target around 700p and a range of roughly 650–750p while the shares traded in the high‑630s. ^[16]

A TechStock² round‑up of broker views highlights a similar picture: TS2 Tech

KBW: Underperform, 650p target
Citigroup: Neutral, 671p target
JPMorgan Chase: Overweight, 725–735p target following a recent trim
UBS: Buy, 750p target

Data from TipRanks, which aggregates five recent 12‑month forecasts, points to an average price target of about 718p, with a high estimate of 760p and a low of 671p – implying roughly 10–12% upside from current levels near 640p. ^[17]

TradingView’s consensus, which uses a slightly different analyst universe, shows a mean target around 678p, with a high again at 760p and a low down at 543p, underlining both upside potential and the risks if macro or execution disappoint. ^[18]

The bullish end of the spectrum is illustrated by an article published on 3 December 2025, in which Motley Fool UK highlights that RBC Capital currently has one of the most optimistic stance on Aviva, with a 760p target. The piece argues that even after a share‑price gain of more than 36% year‑to‑date, there could still be room for further appreciation into 2026, supported by a 5.7% dividend yield. ^[19]

Another recent feature – “3 reasons why Aviva’s share price could surge 18% to 760p” – frames that same 760p figure as roughly 18% above late‑November trading levels, and explores whether current City forecasts are robust. ^[20]

On the ADR side, Fintel’s survey of US‑listed Aviva forecasts shows an average one‑year target of $8.99, with a range from $7.17 to $10.98. ^[21]

In short, most analysts see Aviva as either fairly valued with a decent yield or modestly undervalued with low‑double‑digit total‑return potential. The dispersion of targets, though, is a reminder that there is no consensus on how much of the Direct Line and capital‑return story is already in the price.

Valuation: no longer cheap, but not obviously expensive

The strong share‑price performance in 2025 means Aviva no longer trades on the bargain‑basement multiples seen a few years ago.

Hargreaves Lansdown puts Aviva’s forward price/earnings ratio at around 11.7x, versus a ten‑year average of just 7.1x. ^[22] That re‑rating reflects:

a cleaner and more focused business model,
stronger balance sheet metrics, and
greater confidence in management’s ability to hit targets and return surplus capital.

At the same time, a mid‑teens earnings multiple for an insurer targeting 11% EPS growth and +20% ROE is not obviously excessive, particularly when paired with a near‑6% dividend yield. ^[23]

Many UK market commentators continue to describe Aviva and peers as modestly valued relative to international insurers and to their own fundamentals, especially in the context of UK equities remaining out of favour with global investors. TS2 Tech

The result is a classic late‑cycle valuation debate:

Bears argue the easy money has been made after a 30–40% rally and a re‑rating from single‑digit P/E multiples.
Bulls counter that if Aviva actually delivers 11%+ EPS growth, 20% ROE and sizeable buybacks, today’s valuation could still prove undemanding.

Key risks: regulation, pricing pressure and integration

No investment case is risk‑free, and several issues sit in the background of the current Aviva story.

1. Regulatory pressure and funded reinsurance
A Bloomberg‑sourced article, summarised by TechStock², notes that the Bank of England’s latest stress test of 11 major UK insurers – including Aviva – found the sector broadly resilient, but flagged the growing use of “funded reinsurance” and offshore risk transfers as a potential concern. Regulators could respond with tighter capital requirements, which might reduce returns on some legacy books or constrain future distributions. TS2 Tech

2. General Insurance pricing cycle
Aviva’s UK & Ireland GI business has benefited from strong pricing in recent years, but there are early signs of rate softening in some lines. Hargreaves Lansdown warns that easing prices could pressure margins in 2026, making it crucial for Aviva to continue improving underwriting discipline and cost efficiency. ^[24]

3. Direct Line integration and execution risk
The Direct Line acquisition has already boosted market share in UK motor and home insurance, and management has raised synergy targets. But integrating such a large deal always carries execution risk, from IT and culture through to regulatory scrutiny. The £225m cost‑synergy ambition and £500m+ capital synergies are attractive but not guaranteed. ^[25]

4. Macro and UK sentiment
The UK Autumn Budget has been described as a significant tax package that reshapes incentives around cash savings, ISAs and investment income. Commentary in The Motley Fool and other outlets suggests this could support long‑term demand for private pensions and protection, where Aviva is a key player – but it may also keep broader sentiment towards UK assets fragile. TS2 Tech

5. Payout ratio and capital returns
While Aviva’s dividend yield is a major attraction, some analysts point out that the payout ratio is elevated by historical standards. Sustaining high and growing dividends plus buybacks will require Aviva to keep hitting its profit and cash‑remittance goals in what remains a competitive and capital‑intensive industry. TS2 Tech

Bottom line: how does the risk–reward look on 3 December 2025?

As of 3 December 2025, the Aviva investment case can be summarised as follows:

On the positive side:

Share price still sits below the most bullish broker targets in the 750–760p range, with most aggregated forecasts suggesting high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit upside on a 12‑month view. ^[26]
The group is delivering solid operational growth, has upgraded its profit and cash‑generation targets, and maintains a robust capital position. ^[27]
Investors receive a mid‑single‑digit dividend yield, likely to grow in 2025 and beyond, with buybacks expected to resume in 2026. ^[28]

On the cautionary side:

The stock has already rallied more than 30% over the past year, compressing the yield versus its long‑run average and lifting the valuation multiple above historical norms. ^[29]
Regulatory, pricing and integration risks remain non‑trivial, especially if the macro backdrop deteriorates or sector‑wide capital rules tighten. ^[30]

For long‑term investors comfortable with UK financials, Aviva now looks less like a deeply discounted recovery play and more like a quality, income‑oriented compounder whose future returns will hinge on management executing the new three‑year plan.