New York, January 10, 2026, 18:06 (ET) — Market closed
Shares of AXT, Inc. (AXTI) ended Friday down roughly 11%, closing at $22.99, following a lowered revenue forecast for the fourth quarter. The company cited delays in Chinese export permits for indium phosphide substrates as the cause. During the session, the stock fluctuated between $21.31 and $26.27, with around 18.2 million shares traded.
The Fremont, California-based producer of compound semiconductor wafers now anticipates fourth-quarter revenue between $22.5 million and $23.5 million. This revision comes after China’s Ministry of Commerce issued fewer export control permits than initially expected. These permits are mandatory government approvals for shipping certain products out of China. 1
Why it matters now: indium phosphide (InP) wafers power lasers and other optics that drive data through data centers, a segment gaining ground thanks to the AI computing boom. Management stuck to its target of more than doubling InP capacity in H2 and flagged a capital raise planned for December to fund the expansion.
The updated forecast drops below the company’s previous revenue range of $27 million to $30 million. Analysts had been expecting an average of $28.77 million, FactSet data cited by TheFly shows. “We are hopeful that we will receive additional permits in the first quarter 2026,” CEO Morris Young said. 2
AXTI saw big moves unusual even for a small-cap. It jumped to an intraday peak of $26.30 on Friday before slipping to $21.43, with trading volume far exceeding its average of 4.3 million shares, according to market data. The stock’s 52-week range stretches from $1.13 to $26.30. 3
A recent filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday provided the update. 4
Craig-Hallum analyst Richard Shannon stuck with a buy rating and pegged a $26 price target, Futu News reported. 5
B. Riley took a different stance. Analyst Dave Kang downgraded AXT from buy to neutral but bumped up his price target to $18 from $9, TheFly reported. 6
The decline was notable amid a robust rally in semiconductors. The PHLX semiconductor index surged 2.7% to hit an all-time high Friday, according to Reuters. “Investors are getting granular and picking the winners and losers,” said Zachary Hill, head of portfolio management at Horizon Investments. 7
AXT faces a clear risk. If permits continue to drag or get stricter, orders won’t turn into shipped revenue, sending quarterly results into sharp swings.
AXT will present at the 28th Annual Needham Growth Conference in New York on Jan. 14 at 3:00 p.m. ET. The company plans to release its fourth-quarter results after the market closes on Feb. 19. 8
