London, Jan 10, 2026, 08:04 GMT — Market closed
- BAE Systems closed at 2,053p on Friday, up 1.48% on the day
- Defence stocks surged this week on geopolitics and shifting U.S. defence policy signals
- Investors now look to BAE’s Feb. 18 full-year results for guidance and cash-return clues
BAE Systems shares ended the week firmer after a sharp two-day run that left the stock close to recent highs. The stock closed at 2,053 pence on Friday, up 1.48%, after rising 5.04% on Thursday. 1
The move has tracked a wider bid for defence names after U.S. President Donald Trump called for a steep rise in U.S. military spending and floated limits on dividends and share buybacks — when a company repurchases its own stock — unless contractors speed up weapons output. “Geopolitics is the inescapable story of 2026 thus far,” Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo Bank, said, while RBC Capital Markets analysts led by Ken Herbert flagged “significant uncertainty” over where a final U.S. defence budget lands. 2
In London, defence stocks hit a record high on Thursday even as the broader FTSE 100 ended flat, pinned back by energy and retailers. BAE gained about 5% on the day and touched its highest level since October, Reuters data showed. 3
Technically, the stock is pressing back toward its 52-week high, after closing Thursday at 2,023p — about 2.4% below the £20.73 peak hit in October, according to MarketWatch data. Traders will also keep an eye on the round 2,000p area, which has acted as a psychological line during fast moves. 4
What happens next may hinge less on BAE itself and more on headlines out of Washington. Investors are trying to work out whether the proposed jump in U.S. spending is real money, political messaging, or something that gets watered down in Congress, and what any restrictions on U.S. contractors would mean in practice.
There’s a risk the trade has run ahead of itself. If geopolitical tensions cool, or if the White House steps back from the toughest language on capital returns, some of the defensive bid could leak out quickly, especially with many European defence stocks already near highs.
The next hard catalyst for BAE is its full-year results on Feb. 18, when investors will look for guidance on 2026 sales and margins, order intake, and cash flow. 5
BAE also has a multi-year share buyback programme in place — cash used to retire shares can support earnings per share — which will stay in focus given the U.S. debate over capital returns in the sector. 6
