London, Feb 19, 2026, 08:39 GMT — Regular session
- BAE Systems shares ticked higher in London’s early session, following Wednesday’s strong post-results rally.
- Defence cycle chatter isn’t fading, with 2026 guidance on the table and the order backlog hitting a record 83.6 billion pounds.
- Key dates ahead: April 23 brings the ex-dividend, then the final dividend lands June 4.
Shares of BAE Systems plc edged up in early London action Thursday, gaining roughly 0.5% to 2,120.9 pence as of 0840 GMT. The stock traded between 2,088 and 2,122 pence. (Google)
The stock’s fighting to hang onto hefty gains from the recent defence sector re-rating. Investors, for now, are fixated on two pillars: forward contract visibility and the cash these firms can return to shareholders via buybacks and dividends.
BAE reported a 10% jump in 2025 sales to 30.66 billion pounds, with underlying EBIT up 12%, landing at 3.322 billion pounds. Orders booked reached 36.8 billion pounds, pushing the backlog to a record 83.6 billion pounds. Free cash flow finished at 2.158 billion pounds. The board proposed a final dividend of 22.8p, bringing the full-year payout to 36.3p. Looking to 2026, BAE is guiding for sales growth of 7-9%, underlying EBIT and earnings per share up 9-11%, and expects free cash flow above 1.3 billion pounds. Chief executive Charles Woodburn described the outlook as a “new era of defence spending.” (Investegate)
Shares jumped 6% early Wednesday after the update landed. Jefferies analysts described the numbers as “solid,” singling out cash performance. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the stock has more than tripled, according to Reuters. Heading into Thursday, it was already up roughly 18% for the year. (Reuters)
The stock’s up, but it hasn’t broken past its 52-week high of 2,159 pence from Jan. 19. Market cap sits near 61.5 billion pounds, LSE.co.uk figures show. (London South East)
Investors aren’t just watching headline growth anymore. Their eyes are on the details: are these massive, ongoing programs really delivering cash as factories scale up, and can suppliers keep pace?
Still, it’s not all straightforward. Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, described BAE’s guidance as “a touch conservative” and pointed out that the company’s long-cycle defence contracts can hurt if costs run ahead of pricing. He highlighted supply-chain snags and possible production holdups as major risks flagged by management. (Hargreaves Lansdown)
Policy risk is another lingering concern. According to the Guardian, Woodburn is pressing UK ministers to release the much-delayed defence investment plan, saying the current uncertainty is stalling industry investment. (The Guardian)
Income-focused investors are eyeing the next dividend milestones: BAE shares go ex-dividend on April 23, cutting off eligibility for newcomers. The record date lands on April 24, and payouts are scheduled for June 4. Half-year numbers are set to drop July 30, per the same filing. (Investegate)
