Brussels, March 11, 2026, 18:45 CET
European natural gas prices held close to 48 euros per megawatt hour on Wednesday, with Brussels weighing options like subsidies or a price cap in response to the new energy shock. The Dutch Title Transfer Facility—better known as TTF—remains the region’s top gas benchmark.
Supply jitters are intensifying. Shell, the top player in global LNG trading, has invoked force majeure on Qatari cargoes it purchases and resells. That lets it off the hook for contractual obligations if outside forces disrupt deliveries. According to Reuters, the hitch isn’t likely to impact March shipments, but from April, customers should start feeling the effect.
Asia’s scramble for alternative fuel is picking up speed. India’s GAIL grabbed an Omani cargo for next week, paying $17-$20 per mmBtu, three traders said—a clear mark of how far buyers will go to plug the gap from missing Qatari shipments.
That’s a key issue for Europe, where gas typically drives electricity pricing. Ursula von der Leyen said Brussels is looking into ways to boost long-term power contracts, tap state aid, and maybe even revive a gas price cap. The EU’s last emergency cap—set to activate at 180 euros per MWh—expired unused last year.
Destination, traders argue, has become the main point of contention. Last week, Spark Commodities’ Qasim Afghan noted that global front-month arbitrage windows “have increased significantly”—they’re now open to Asia from multiple export hubs. That dynamic can redirect flexible cargoes that might have gone to Europe. Reuters
Yet some players are wagering the jolt won’t last. Uniper CEO Michael Lewis pointed out to analysts that the forward curve reflected this view—prices for 2026 stood out, but by 2027 and 2028, the impact faded or vanished. “That means that the market expects a quick resolution to this conflict,” Lewis said. Reuters
Producers beyond the Gulf are stepping up. In Kitimat, LNG Canada has shipped out five cargoes just in the first 11 days of March, LSEG data shows, putting the project near its annual capacity of 14 million tonnes. That’s according to Reuters.
Things remain steadier stateside. According to the Energy Information Administration, even as LNG shipment interruptions in the Strait of Hormuz sent European and Asian gas prices higher, Henry Hub is expected to stay insulated. The agency now forecasts Henry Hub will average $3.80 per mmBtu in 2026, with marketed gas production climbing to 121 billion cubic feet per day.
The downside risk hasn’t vanished. Reuters said last week that it could take Qatar at least a month to restore its normal output, citing sources. And according to analysts speaking with Reuters, Europe’s gas storage might finish March only 22% to 27% full—well below the five-year average of about 41%. Saul Kavonic, who leads energy research at MST Marquee, put it bluntly: “Nothing can replace Qatari LNG” if the outage drags on. Reuters
