NEW YORK, Feb 3, 2026, 13:22 EST
- Shares of Broadcom and TSMC dropped Tuesday as investors looked past Nvidia’s GPUs to reconsider which AI chipmakers might come out ahead.
- Broadcom is projecting its AI semiconductor revenue to double year-on-year this quarter, while TSMC anticipates steady demand for its cutting-edge manufacturing capacity.
- Supply constraints and high valuations continue to drive the trade’s key moves.
Broadcom shares dropped around 6%, while TSMC slid about 2% in U.S. trading Tuesday, despite growing investor interest in custom AI chips competing with Nvidia’s leading graphics processors.
A recent analysis from The Motley Fool highlighted how major cloud players—known as “hyperscalers,” the biggest data center operators—are driving up capital spending (capex) and expanding their focus past just compute. They’re investing heavily in the networking infrastructure that powers AI clusters. The report pointed out that Broadcom stands to benefit, given its roles in both networking and custom silicon as these budgets grow.
Custom chips—known as ASICs (application-specific integrated circuits)—focus on a limited range of functions compared to general-purpose chips. In AI, they’re typically used to run trained models at scale, a process called “inference” in industry terms, offering a cheaper cost per query.
Counterpoint Research reported in late January that shipments of AI server compute ASICs are set to triple by 2027, driven by cloud companies boosting their use of in-house accelerators. Broadcom is forecasted to maintain a top spot in design partnerships. The firm also highlighted TSMC’s dominance in advanced manufacturing for the largest AI chip buyers.
Broadcom is already pointing to AI as a growth driver. “We see the momentum continuing in Q1,” CEO Hock Tan said in the quarterly release. The company forecasts AI semiconductor revenue to double year-on-year to $8.2 billion, fueled by custom AI accelerators and Ethernet AI switches.
During the earnings call, Tan highlighted an AI-related revenue backlog nearing $73 billion. He also dismissed claims that Broadcom’s design and manufacturing processes could be copied by clients without any compromises.
TSMC, the globe’s top contract chipmaker, positions itself as the essential supplier in the ongoing buildout. Wendell Huang noted, “Our business in the fourth quarter was supported by strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies.” The company projects first-quarter revenue between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, alongside a 2026 capital budget ranging from $52 billion to $56 billion.
Supply remains a key issue, and it’s causing a stir. Reuters reported that Jensen Huang, during his high-profile Taiwan trip, pushed TSMC to ramp up production to keep pace with AI demand. He said bluntly: “TSMC needs to work very hard this year because I need a lot of wafers.”
Some investors are uneasy about the “next winners” hype around pricing. A Seeking Alpha analysis from Jan. 30 acknowledged Broadcom’s strong AI momentum but warned the stock’s rich valuation leaves little margin for a slowdown—particularly if hyperscaler spending shifts or demand remains concentrated among a few key customers.
Nvidia continues to set the standard in AI computing, with the custom-chip trend seen more as a complement than a full substitute. That said, it’s shifting where profits land: chip designers pursue long-term design contracts, while foundries and advanced packaging capture the demand for cutting-edge production nodes.
The downside scenario is straightforward. If hyperscalers pull back on AI capex, chip program launches delay, or manufacturing bottlenecks persist longer, the “custom boom” risks turning into a backlog headache instead of a revenue driver. Competition is also key — Marvell Technology is a top name investors track in custom silicon — and design wins often come in fits and starts.
At the moment, investors see Broadcom and TSMC as two sides of the same coin: Broadcom operates in design and networking, while TSMC runs the manufacturing side. The coming quarters will reveal if the move toward custom chips marks a lasting trend or just a crowded trade chasing fresh news.
