Bharti Airtel Limited (NSE: BHARTIARTL | BSE: 532454) is heading into the final stretch of 2025 with a rare combo of catalysts: a large capital call linked to its old rights issue, a senior leadership succession plan, and a growing analyst consensus that India’s telecom pricing cycle still has another leg left in 2026.
As markets were shut on Saturday (20 December 2025), the latest tradable reference is Friday’s close. Airtel ended 19 December 2025 at ₹2,097.70 on NSE (Yahoo Finance) and ₹2,096.30 on BSE, sitting a few percentage points below its 52-week high near ₹2,174.70. [1]
What follows is the full “as-of 20.12.2025” picture: the newest headlines, the most-cited forecasts, and the key bullish and bearish arguments currently shaping Airtel stock.
Bharti Airtel share price: where the stock stands heading into the weekend
Airtel’s share price has stayed elevated near record territory, even as day-to-day trading has looked choppy—classic “high expectations, many moving parts” behavior.
- Close (NSE): ₹2,097.70 on 19 Dec 2025
- Close (BSE): ₹2,096.30 on 19 Dec 2025
- 52-week high referenced by multiple trackers: ~₹2,174.70 (hit in November 2025) [2]
This matters because most broker targets being discussed right now imply upside from roughly the ₹2,100 area—so the debate isn’t “is Airtel improving?” so much as “how much of that improvement is already priced in?”
Biggest new corporate development: Airtel triggers a ₹15,740 crore “final call” on partly-paid shares
What Airtel announced
In the most consequential company-specific news of the week, Airtel’s board approved the first and final call of ₹401.25 per partly-paid share (including a premium of ₹397.50) on 392,287,662 outstanding partly paid-up shares—unlocking a planned capital raise of ₹15,740 crore. [3]
Key dates investors are tracking
According to the company details reported in the financial press:
- Record date:6 February 2026
- Call payment window:2 March 2026 to 16 March 2026 [4]
Why this matters for Airtel stock
This isn’t a new rights issue out of the blue. It’s the completion step of Airtel’s earlier fundraising structure.
The Economic Times reports Airtel raised about ₹5,247 crore in the first tranche of the rights issue launched in 2021, and the balance could be called via additional calls at ₹401.25 per share within the allowed window. Airtel is positioning the move as balance-sheet strengthening—primarily aimed at cutting debt and improving financial flexibility. [5]
Stock-market implication: completing the call can be read as confidence in cash generation and a desire to accelerate deleveraging (and possibly widen strategic optionality), but it also introduces a near-term “mechanics” story—tracking participation, conversion to fully paid shares, and any liquidity/flow effects around those dates.
Leadership succession and finance reshuffle: new CEO, new CFO structure from 1 January 2026
Airtel is also entering 2026 with a planned leadership transition—framed as continuity with sharper execution focus.
What’s changing
- Gopal Vittal is set to move into the role of Executive Vice Chairman from 1 January 2026.
- Shashwat Sharma will become Managing Director and CEO (Bharti Airtel India) from 1 January 2026. [6]
On the finance side:
- Airtel appointed Soumen Ray as Group CFO, and Akhil Garg is expected to take over as CFO for Bharti Airtel India (effective 1 January 2026). [7]
Why investors care
Telecom is a capital-allocation business wearing a consumer-tech costume. Leadership and finance appointments matter because they shape:
- the pace of deleveraging,
- the aggressiveness of 5G and fixed-broadband investment,
- and the willingness to return capital as cash flows expand.
The big macro bet powering Airtel bulls: another tariff hike cycle in 2026
If there’s one theme that keeps popping up across broker notes and telecom coverage, it’s this:
India’s private telcos may be heading toward another round of tariff hikes in 2026—potentially earlier and larger than previously expected.
Morgan Stanley’s tariff forecast (widely cited this week)
Morgan Stanley expects 16–20% tariff increases across 4G/5G plans (prepaid and postpaid) in 2026, and places the likely timing in Q1 FY27 (April–June 2026). [8]
Economic Times’ coverage of the Morgan Stanley report also contextualizes the pricing cycle: the industry has seen major hikes in 2019, 2021, and 2024, with Morgan Stanley arguing that stronger players historically capture disproportionate benefit during these “repair” phases. [9]
Airtel-specific ARPU ambition: “₹400 over five years”
ETTelecom, citing Morgan Stanley, notes an even more striking Airtel narrative: the brokerage believes Airtel has the potential to deliver ~₹400 ARPU over the next five years, even without tariff hikes beyond 2026 (with additional hikes as upside). [10]
Translation: the bullish thesis is not just “raise prices once,” but “monetise data usage + premiumise customer mix + expand fixed broadband,” while keeping competition rational.
Analyst price targets and current Street stance on Bharti Airtel stock
Airtel is heavily covered, so targets vary. But the headlines right now are clearly skewed positive.
Morgan Stanley: target raised to ₹2,435; stance upgraded
Business Today reports Morgan Stanley raised its Airtel target price 20% to ₹2,435, shifting to Overweight (from Equal-weight), with a view that the stock typically performs well ahead of tariff hikes and could begin pricing in that possibility in coming months. [11]
Jefferies: Buy; target raised to ₹2,635
Jefferies raised its target price to ₹2,635 while maintaining a Buy rating, pointing to broad-based strength in September 2025 results and forecasting strong multi-year growth in India revenues, EBITDA, and free cash flow. [12]
Citigroup: Buy; target ₹2,225
Times of India reports Citi has a Buy with a target of ₹2,225, describing Airtel’s Q2 FY26 performance as modestly ahead of expectations across India mobile, homes, and business, while highlighting a surprise capex jump in India (ex-Indus) during the quarter. [13]
Consensus-style aggregator view
Trendlyne’s consensus snapshot shows an average target around ₹2,293, implying high-single-digit upside from around the ₹2,100 level (depending on the exact reference price). [14]
Important reality check: targets can cluster when the same narrative dominates (tariff hikes + ARPU expansion). The meaningful question is whether the timing and magnitude of tariff action matches what’s currently being modelled.
Credit upgrades reinforce the balance-sheet story: Moody’s and S&P move in Airtel’s favor
Airtel’s equity story in 2025 hasn’t been purely about growth; it’s also been about quality of earnings and deleveraging—and rating agencies have responded.
Moody’s upgrade
Airtel disclosed that Moody’s upgraded its issuer rating to Baa2 from Baa3 and changed the outlook to stable (dated 4 November 2025). [15]
S&P upgrade to ‘BBB’ with positive outlook (and detailed forecasts)
S&P Global Ratings raised Airtel’s long-term issuer credit rating to ‘BBB’ from ‘BBB-’ (dated 17 November 2025) and maintained a positive outlook, explicitly tying the view to continued deleveraging and robust earnings momentum. [16]
S&P’s published assumptions are also a neat “baseline forecast” investors can benchmark against, including:
- Cash capex: ₹420–₹440 billion across fiscal 2026–2027
- Adjusted revenue growth:10–12% in FY26; 8–10% in FY27
- EBITDA margin: improving to 56–58% through FY27
- FFO/debt: rising sharply (S&P’s forecast table shows a move from ~27.5% to much higher levels in FY26–FY27) [17]
For equity investors, these upgrades don’t just lower borrowing-cost friction; they also tend to broaden the pool of institutions comfortable with the name—especially when the business is simultaneously leaning into shareholder distributions.
Fundamentals snapshot: Airtel’s Q2 FY26 performance (quarter ended 30 September 2025)
To understand why analysts feel comfortable underwriting a higher ARPU and cash-flow story, it helps to look at Airtel’s most recently reported quarter.
What Airtel reported in its investor materials
From Airtel’s Q2 FY26 IR pack (quarter ended 30 September 2025):
- Total customers: ~624 million (up 10.7% YoY) across markets
- Consolidated net income:₹67,916 million (as presented in the pack)
- Quarter capex:₹113,623 million
- Net debt (excluding leases):₹1,266,513 million
- Net Debt/EBITDA (annualised, excluding leases):1.19x [18]
In India mobile:
- Customers:364.2 million
- Smartphone data customers:285.8 million
- ARPU:₹256 (vs ₹233 in the year-ago quarter)
- Average data usage:28.3 GB/month per customer
- Mobile revenues:₹281,167 million; EBITDA margin:60.3% [19]
Homes (fixed broadband) continues to look like a genuine growth engine:
- Homes customer base:11.9 million
- Net adds in the quarter: ~951,000
- Revenue growth:30.2% YoY [20]
Airtel Business (B2B) shows a margin-led story even as it “cleans up” lower-quality revenue:
- Quarter revenue:₹52,760 million (down YoY)
- Quarter EBITDA:₹21,943 million
- EBITDA margin:41.6% [21]
Reuters’ framing: premiumisation plus Indus consolidation
Reuters also highlighted that the profit rise was driven by higher ARPU and a shift to higher-margin 4G/5G plans, with overall revenue supported by consolidation of Indus Towers (where Airtel acquired a majority stake). [22]
Airtel Africa: Starlink deal adds a “coverage leap” narrative (and a tech angle investors like)
Airtel’s Africa business (consolidated into Bharti Airtel results) is often treated as a second engine—higher growth, higher FX risk, and occasionally, higher narrative volatility.
The new development
Reuters reports Airtel Africa partnered with SpaceX’s Starlink to introduce direct-to-cell satellite technology across all 14 markets, with rollout beginning in 2026. The initial scope includes text messaging and data for select applications in areas without terrestrial coverage, and it also references next-generation satellites aimed at much higher smartphone data speeds. [23]
Why it could matter for Bharti Airtel stock
This doesn’t instantly change Airtel’s India ARPU. But it strengthens the Africa story as:
- a coverage differentiator (particularly in rural/remote areas),
- a potential driver of subscriber retention and enterprise connectivity use-cases,
- and a signal that Airtel Africa wants to stay “tech-forward” rather than purely price/coverage driven.
From Airtel’s Q2 FY26 IR pack, Africa had an aggregate customer base of 173.8 million as of 30 September 2025. [24]
What investors will watch next: dates, signals, and the “tariff vs capex” balancing act
1) Next earnings date: Q3 FY26 results due 5 February 2026
Airtel’s own quarterly calendar lists the Q3 results (quarter ended December 2025) announcement date as 5 February 2026. [25]
That event is likely to be the next major “reset point” for:
- ARPU trajectory,
- free cash flow,
- and management commentary around tariff timing.
2) Tariff signals: not just “will prices rise,” but “how cleanly can the industry execute?”
Morgan Stanley’s thesis assumes the market structure stays rational enough to allow a broad-based hike. Investors will watch for:
- plan simplification,
- benefit migration (OTT bundles shifting to premium tiers),
- and any sign of aggressive promotional behavior from competitors. [26]
3) Capex trajectory: free cash flow is the oxygen for the bull thesis
One reason Airtel stock has been treated as a “quality telecom compounder” is the belief that 5G rollout intensity moderates, letting cash flows expand.
But JP Morgan (as reported by ETTelecom) flags a counterpoint: ambitions in home broadband, data centres (including mention of building a 1GW data centre), and early signs of 5G capacity constraints could trigger a fresh capex cycle from FY27—potentially denting the free-cash-flow glide path the market is loving right now. [27]
Key risks and red flags to keep on the dashboard
Even with strong momentum, Airtel is not a “no-risk” story. The current valuation implicitly assumes execution stays clean.
Competitive and regulatory risk
The tariff-hike story depends on a rational market. Any re-acceleration of price competition can compress margins quickly—especially if operators chase subscriber share at the low end.
Capex surprise risk
If Airtel needs to spend more than expected (5G capacity, fiber land-grab, data centres), the “cash machine” narrative could shift to “reinvestment cycle,” which markets often treat more cautiously. [28]
Indus Towers exposure (indirect but relevant)
Airtel’s consolidated disclosures have previously referenced uncertainty around a large customer of Indus Towers and collection-related risks, a standing sector issue whenever financially weaker telecom players are involved. (This is the kind of detail investors tend to re-check during earnings.) [29]
Africa FX and macro volatility
Airtel Africa is a growth driver, but currency and regulatory changes can swing reported results. The Starlink partnership is strategically positive, but the operating environment still matters. [30]
Bottom line: what the market is really pricing into Bharti Airtel stock right now
As of 20 December 2025, Airtel stock is being valued less like a slow utility and more like a disciplined consumer-infrastructure platform: a telco with improving ARPU, expanding fixed broadband, tightening leverage, and a credible path to higher shareholder distributions—if tariff normalization continues and capex doesn’t spike unpredictably.
The near-term narrative is dominated by:
- the ₹15,740 crore final call (balance sheet and capital structure mechanics), [31]
- the January 2026 leadership transition, [32]
- and the 2026 tariff-hike expectation (the single biggest driver behind upside targets). [33]
The next major checkpoint is 5 February 2026, when Airtel is scheduled to announce results for the quarter ended December 2025—and, more importantly, update the market on how real the next pricing cycle looks from inside the industry. [34]
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. finance.yahoo.com, 3. www.livemint.com, 4. www.livemint.com, 5. m.economictimes.com, 6. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. m.economictimes.com, 9. m.economictimes.com, 10. telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com, 11. www.businesstoday.in, 12. www.investing.com, 13. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 14. trendlyne.com, 15. bsmedia.business-standard.com, 16. assets.airtel.in, 17. assets.airtel.in, 18. assets.airtel.in, 19. assets.airtel.in, 20. assets.airtel.in, 21. assets.airtel.in, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. assets.airtel.in, 25. www.airtel.in, 26. m.economictimes.com, 27. telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com, 28. telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com, 29. assets.airtel.in, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.livemint.com, 32. m.economictimes.com, 33. m.economictimes.com, 34. www.airtel.in
