BHP Group Ltd Share Price: What to Watch Before Market Open on 1 December 2025

As markets gear up for the first trading day of December, BHP Group Ltd (ASX:BHP, NYSE:BHP, LON:BHP) sits at the centre of several powerful storylines: strong copper and coal production, tension with China over iron ore, the end of a blockbuster Anglo American takeover bid, and a wave of fresh institutional buying.

Here’s a detailed look at where the BHP share price stands after the 28 November close and what traders and long‑term investors should be watching before the bell on Monday, 1 December 2025.

1. BHP share price snapshot heading into December

Australia (ASX:BHP)
On Friday, 28 November, BHP’s primary Australian listing finished at A$41.67, slipping 0.17% on the day. The stock traded between A$41.29 and A$41.76, with about 8 million shares changing hands. Over the past 12 months, the share price has moved in a range of roughly A$33.25 to A$44.55 and is up about 2.7% year‑on‑year. ^[1]

Stock Analysis estimates BHP’s Australian market capitalisation at A$211.6 billion, with a price‑to‑earnings ratio around 15.4 based on trailing earnings. ^[2]

United States (NYSE:BHP ADRs)
On the NYSE, BHP’s sponsored ADRs closed Friday at US$54.73, down 0.27%, with about 1.5 million ADRs traded. Over the past year the ADSs have traded between US$39.73 and US$58.92, leaving BHP modestly positive year‑on‑year and valuing the group at about US$138.6 billion. ^[3]

Each ADR represents two ordinary shares. With BHP paying total FY25 dividends of US$1.10 per ordinary share, or US$2.20 per ADR, the trailing dividend yield at Friday’s close sits near 4%. ^[4]

United Kingdom (LON:BHP)
In London, where BHP maintains a secondary listing, the stock ended Friday at 2,066 pence, up about 2% from the prior close and implying a market cap around £104.7 billion and a P/E near 15.9. ^[5]

Across all three markets the picture is broadly similar: BHP is trading mid‑range between its 52‑week high and low, on a mid‑teens earnings multiple and a dividend yield around 4%.

2. Fresh institutional buying supports the share price

From 28–30 November, several new regulatory filings hit the tape, showing that large asset managers have been quietly adding to BHP through 2025. These filings don’t tell you what will happen on Monday, but they do show where serious money has been moving recently.

Quadrant Capital Group: +31.7% stake

On 28 November, MarketBeat reported that Quadrant Capital Group LLC increased its BHP ADR position by 31.7% in the second quarter, buying an extra 26,496 ADRs to bring its holding to 110,208 ADRs worth roughly US$5.3 million. ^[6]

The same filing highlighted broad‑based institutional interest:

Goldman Sachs boosted its position by 43% in Q1.
Citigroup nearly doubled its stake.
Several other asset managers, including Kingstone Capital Partners and Townsend & Associates, opened or expanded positions. ^[7]

Taken together, about 3.8% of the stock is now held by hedge funds and institutional investors tracked in that report, suggesting that professional investors see BHP as a core large‑cap mining exposure rather than a trade to avoid. ^[8]

American Century and Franklin Resources: adding through Q2

Over the weekend of 29–30 November, two more filings landed:

American Century Companies Inc. lifted its stake by 14.2% in Q2, adding 96,585 ADRs to reach 778,244 ADRs worth about US$37.4 million. ^[9]
Franklin Resources Inc. increased its holding by 48.2% to 383,043 ADRs, valued at roughly US$18.4 million. ^[10]

While these moves relate to the second quarter rather than the last few days, the filings were only disclosed this weekend. That makes them fresh information for the market as it opens on 1 December – and they skew clearly positive for sentiment.

3. Valuation: from “undervalued” to “fully priced” depending on who you ask

Recent analysis published between 28 and 30 November paints a mixed, nuanced picture of BHP’s valuation.

Discounted cash flow vs broker targets

Equity‑research site Simply Wall St calculates a fair value for the ASX‑listed shares of about A$47.75, using a two‑stage discounted cash flow model. With BHP trading around A$41.74 at the time of that analysis, the site argues the stock is roughly 13% below fair value. ^[11]

By contrast, MarketBeat’s coverage of the NYSE‑listed ADRs shows:

A consensus rating of “Hold” from nine analysts (1 Strong Buy, 7 Hold, 1 Sell).
A consensus price target of US$48.50, meaning the ADRs are currently trading above the average target. ^[12]

The London‑listed shares tell a similar story: MarketBeat describes the broker stance there as “Reduce”, with an average target of 1,966.67 pence, below Friday’s 2,066p close. ^[13]

In short, some cash‑flow models see upside, while the average sell‑side analyst thinks much of the good news is already in the price.

Quant and AI‑driven views

AI‑powered stock analytics platform Danelfin currently gives BHP an AI Score of 7/10 (Buy) and estimates about a 61% probability that the ADRs will outperform the S&P 500 by roughly 6 percentage points over the next three months. The tool also cites a dividend yield of around 4%. ^[14]

Meanwhile, research platform TIKR published a deep dive updated 24 November, arguing that BHP’s operational excellence and growth pipeline are impressive, but that its own valuation model only projects a mid‑single‑digit total return (about 5.9%) over the next ~4.5 years – roughly 1–2% annualised, which it characterises as “fair value” rather than a bargain. ^[15]

Australian research house Rask has also been pushing BHP into the local conversation this weekend with pieces titled “A quick way to value the BHP share price” and “Are BHP shares or QBE shares better value in 2025?”, underlining that valuation is front‑of‑mind for local investors. ^[16]

4. Fundamentals: strong Q1 FY26, solid FY25, generous dividends

Although the latest quarterly operational review came out in October, it remains the key reference point for fundamentals heading into December.

Q1 FY26 operational review: copper and coal strength

In its operational review for the quarter ended 30 September 2025, BHP reported: ^[17]

Group copper production up 4% year‑on‑year, helped by record concentrator throughput at the giant Escondida mine in Chile.
Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) delivered another strong quarter, achieving record material mined while completing major infrastructure upgrades ahead of schedule.
Steelmaking coal output increased 8%, benefitting from strong mining rates and improved stripping at Broadmeadow.

Management described the commodity price environment as “constructive” and said macro signals for commodity demand remained broadly resilient, even as it flagged some deceleration in global growth in the second half of calendar 2025. The company reiterated that it is on track to meet full‑year production guidance, with the long‑term outlook for copper and potash especially positive. ^[18]

BHP also highlighted continued progress at its key growth projects:

Jansen potash project (Canada) – Stage 1 about 73% complete, with first production expected in 2027; Stage 2 now 13% complete. ^[19]
Laguna Seca expansion at Escondida – secured environmental approvals, supporting long‑term copper output. ^[20]

FY25 full‑year results: record copper and iron ore, higher profit

Back in August, BHP reported that FY25 statutory net profit rose 6% to US$9.8 billion, helped by record annual output in both copper and iron ore, and that most key metrics came in broadly in line with consensus expectations. ^[21]

The board declared a final dividend of US$0.60 per share, bringing total FY25 dividends to US$1.10 per share, equivalent to US$5.6 billion distributed and a 55% payout ratio. ^[22]

For context, MarketBeat’s earnings page currently shows a consensus EPS estimate of US$4.03 for the current year and US$4.17 for next year, implying expectations of modest earnings growth. ^[23]

5. Macro and commodity backdrop: green metals boom, China iron ore tension

“Great Commodity Divide”: copper surges, oil slumps

A widely circulated macro piece on 28 November described a “Great Commodity Divide”: crude oil prices sliding while green‑energy metals and gold rally strongly. As of that date, copper was up about 12% over the prior three months to around US$10,985 per tonne, amid expectations of a structural supply deficit later in the decade. ^[24]

That article singled out diversified miners such as BHP and Glencore as likely beneficiaries of the copper, nickel and cobalt uptrend, given their large exposure to “energy transition” metals. ^[25]

The bullish green‑metals backdrop clearly supports BHP’s copper and nickel divisions and reinforces the strategic value of its Jansen potash project over the longer term.

Iron ore: China widens restrictions on BHP cargoes

Balancing that good news is rising tension in BHP’s most important commodity: iron ore.

Over the past two weeks, China’s state‑owned China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) has:

Ordered mills and traders to stop buying BHP’s Jinbao fines, a low‑grade iron ore product. ^[26]
Extended an earlier ban, introduced in September, on purchases of Jimblebar Blend Fines, another BHP product. ^[27]

The dispute stems from protracted negotiations over the 2026 annual iron ore contract, with CMRG using its centralised buying power to pressure BHP for better terms. Analysts quoted in both Reuters and specialist steel publication SteelOrbis emphasise that Jinbao fines represent a small proportion of BHP’s sales, so the immediate volume impact is limited, but the move highlights rising contract and geopolitical risk in the China iron ore trade. ^[28]

Interestingly, iron ore prices have held up despite the spat: Chinese port prices for medium‑grade ore have remained supported, with daily reports on 28 November noting only minor declines in futures (the main Dalian I2601 contract slipped about 0.2%). ^[29]

ESG and decarbonisation: batteries, hydrogen and renewable power

BHP has also been trying to insulate its long‑term business from climate‑policy risk:

In July 2025, it signed deals with Chinese battery giants CATL and BYD to deploy more battery‑powered mining vehicles and storage systems at its sites – a move aimed at cutting diesel consumption and emissions. ^[30]
It has a partnership with POSCO to explore hydrogen‑based low‑emissions ironmaking. ^[31]
Its Q1 operational review highlighted a major renewable‑electricity agreement for its Copper South Australia operations. ^[32]

These initiatives don’t shift Monday’s opening price, but they matter for investors concerned about long‑term ESG risk and the stock’s ability to remain investible for large institutions.

6. After Anglo: more focus on organic growth

Another key theme behind BHP’s share price into December is the abandoned takeover of Anglo American.

On 23–24 November, BHP formally walked away from its renewed approach to buy Anglo in a deal estimated at around US$60 billion, which would have created an even larger copper powerhouse. ^[33]

Under UK takeover rules, BHP is now barred from making another bid for six months. Reuters and other outlets report: ^[34]

Investors are urging BHP to “get over Anglo” and focus instead on delivering its existing growth projects, especially Jansen potash and copper expansions in the Americas.
Commentators see the failed approach as a blemish on CEO Mike Henry’s record, with expectations he will step down in 2026.
Analysts argue that disciplined capital allocation and organic growth may ultimately deliver better risk‑adjusted returns than a mega‑merger at a large premium.

For shareholders, the near‑term implication is clearer strategy: BHP is now effectively locked into an organic growth path through at least mid‑2026, which could support valuation if the company delivers on production, cost, and potash timelines.

7. Technical picture heading into 1 December

Short‑term technical indicators for BHP look constructive but not euphoric.

Investing.com’s technical dashboard for the ASX listing shows most moving‑average signals flashing “Buy” and an overall daily technical summary leaning “Strong Buy”, while some oscillators are more neutral. ^[35]
The 14‑day RSI sits in the mid‑50s, signalling neither overbought nor oversold conditions. ^[36]
On the NYSE ADRs, MarketBeat notes that the 50‑day moving average is around the mid‑US$55 area, while the 200‑day sits just above US$52, with the 12‑month high just under US$59. ^[37]

For traders, that sets up a fairly clean map:

Upside levels to watch:
- ASX: A$43–44 as near‑term resistance, then the A$44–45 zone near the 52‑week high.
- NYSE: The 50‑day around US$55 as the first hurdle, then US$58–59 near the 52‑week peak.
Downside levels to monitor:
- ASX: The A$40 round number and then the low‑A$30s 52‑week floor.
- NYSE: 200‑day moving average in the low US$53s, then US$50 and the high‑US$30s 52‑week low.

With volatility in commodities and China news, these levels could be tested quickly if sentiment swings.

8. Key catalysts for BHP in the coming days and weeks

Going into Monday’s open, several near‑term events are likely to influence the BHP share price:

Upcoming earnings / trading update – MarketBeat’s calendars show BHP among companies with earnings or trading updates scheduled in early December, with some pages flagging an estimated date around 2 December based on historical reporting patterns. ^[38]
- Any update on FY26 guidance, China iron ore negotiations or potash timelines will be closely watched.
Ongoing iron ore contract negotiations with CMRG – Investors will look for signs that the dispute over Jinbao and Jimblebar fines is moving towards resolution rather than escalation. ^[39]
Anglo–Teck merger vote (9 December) – While BHP is now on the sidelines, the creation of a large competing copper producer could influence long‑term sector dynamics and valuation multiples. ^[40]
Macro data and central‑bank expectations – With gold at record levels and green‑metal prices elevated partly on expectations of Fed rate cuts and global decarbonisation policy, any surprise on the macro front could spill into BHP via copper and iron ore prices. ^[41]

9. Bull vs bear case before the 1 December open

Bullish arguments

Strong operational execution: Record copper throughput at Escondida, resilient WAIO volumes and higher steelmaking coal production provide a solid base. ^[42]
Attractive yield and balance sheet: Around 4% dividend yield, mid‑teens P/E and disciplined capital allocation after walking away from Anglo support the “quality income stock” narrative. ^[43]
Energy‑transition leverage: Rising copper and battery‑metal prices, plus long‑dated potash demand, play directly into BHP’s project pipeline. ^[44]
Institutional buying: Recent filings show multiple large asset managers increasing positions, which can underpin demand on dips. ^[45]

Bearish arguments

China risk and iron‑ore concentration: Even if current bans target small‑volume products, the CMRG dispute underlines how exposed BHP is to Chinese policy and negotiating tactics. ^[46]
Valuation not obviously cheap: Broker consensus targets sit below the current ADR and London share prices; TIKR’s model shows only low‑single‑digit expected returns, suggesting limited margin of safety if commodities soften. ^[47]
Execution risk on growth projects: Jansen potash and major copper expansions are multi‑year, capital‑intensive projects; any delays or cost overruns could crimp returns just as competitors scale up. ^[48]

10. What to watch at Monday’s open

For traders and investors tracking BHP before the 1 December 2025 open, the key points are:

Price levels – Is ASX:BHP holding above A$41 and pushing towards A$43–44, or slipping back towards A$40? Is the NYSE ADR reclaiming the 50‑day moving average around US$55 or drifting toward the low US$50s? ^[49]
Newsflow – Any fresh headlines on China’s iron ore restrictions, Anglo/Teck merger developments, or hints of an earlier‑than‑expected trading update could move the stock quickly. ^[50]
Commodity moves – Watch copper and iron‑ore futures in early Asian and London trade; sharp moves there tend to feed directly into BHP’s pre‑market pricing. ^[51]

BHP enters December as what it has long been: a high‑quality, cyclical giant tied to the world’s appetite for steel, infrastructure and clean‑energy metals. The latest institutional buying and solid fundamentals give the bulls plenty to work with, but China’s iron‑ore muscle‑flexing and valuation questions mean Monday’s open – and the coming week – could be lively.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

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