New York, February 28, 2026, 11:24 EST — Market closed
Energy markets braced for a choppy start after strikes by the U.S. and Israel on Iran rattled nerves over potential Middle East supply shocks. Exxon Mobil NYSE:XOM finished Friday’s session at $152.50, up $3.96, or 2.7%. “The strike raises geopolitical risk premia as markets head into Monday’s open,” said OCBC strategist Christopher Wong in Singapore. Reuters
With the market closed over the weekend, Exxon holders turn their attention to crude prices and news flow instead of poring over company filings. For the big integrated oil names, Brent’s moves hit cash flows and valuations at a pace that outstrips most corporate developments.
Brent crude ended Friday up 2.45% at $72.48 a barrel, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate gaining 2.78% to settle at $67.02. The move came as Washington and Tehran pushed their indirect negotiations into next week. “Uncertainty prevails, fear is pushing prices higher today,” noted Tamas Varga, oil analyst at PVM. According to DBS’s Suvro Sarkar, the “risk premium”—that’s what traders shell out for the threat of possible supply disruptions—has jumped to roughly $8 to $10 a barrel. CNA
The direction isn’t all up for oil. Barclays flagged that Brent might hit $80 a barrel if tensions trim supply—even shaving off just 1 million barrels per day. But the bank also warned prices could drop $3 to $5 if there’s no cut and Iran’s response turns out milder than expected.
OPEC+ is set to meet Sunday at 1100 GMT, and sources close to the negotiations say a larger-than-expected output hike could be on the table following the Iran strike. Delegates had previously anticipated a 137,000 barrel-per-day boost for April, after the group held production steady through the first quarter.
Exxon managed gains even as the rest of Wall Street mostly headed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.05% on Friday. Chevron added 1.41% and Valero Energy tacked on 0.42%. Marathon Petroleum lost 1.42%, according to MarketWatch data.
Ripples from the weekend’s fighting are being felt in energy markets outside of oil. Israel’s Energy Ministry called for a temporary shutdown of some natural gas reservoirs, and according to sources cited by Reuters, Chevron’s Leviathan field has also been shut.
Investors are keeping an eye on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for around 20% of the world’s oil flows. Attacks have prompted several oil majors and trading firms to halt shipments of crude and fuel through the area, according to four trading sources. William Jackson at Capital Economics says Brent could climb toward $80 if the conflict stays limited, but if it intensifies and disrupts supply, prices could reach about $100.
For Exxon, the main thing right now is whether pricier crude lifts energy stocks or instead stirs up those inflation jitters that tend to weigh on the wider market. In practice, the stock usually tracks oil prices above all else.
Exxon’s plastics division isn’t out of the spotlight either. Legal and political headaches persist, as a Texas federal judge this month cleared the way for Exxon’s defamation suit against California Attorney General Rob Bonta. The dispute centers on Bonta’s remarks about Exxon’s recycling practices. Exxon calls it “a campaign of lies designed to derail our advanced recycling business must stop.” Fortune
Looking ahead, OPEC+ will make its call on Sunday, March 1, with oil trading kicking off as soon as markets reopen—well before New York gets going on Monday, March 2. All eyes on Hormuz: traders want to see if shipments slow, and if the oil risk premium holds.
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