BigBear.ai (BBAI) Stock News, Forecasts, and Analysis as of Dec. 24, 2025

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: BBAI) is having one of those “modern AI-stock” moments where the story moves faster than the quarterly numbers. The company sits at the crossroads of defense, homeland security, and AI-driven decision intelligence, and recent headlines have investors debating a familiar trio: mission-critical demand, acquisition upside, and dilution risk.

As of the most recent close (Dec. 23, 2025), BBAI stock finished at $6.12, down 4.23% on the day after trading between $6.07 and $6.46, with volume around 52.6 million shares. ^[1] That daily pullback comes after a week of violent, high-volume swings, including multiple sessions with nine-figure share volume. ^[2]

Below is what matters most right now—the news driving the tape, what the company is actually reporting, and what “forecasts” look like from Wall Street and market-data aggregators as of Dec. 24, 2025.

Why BigBear.ai stock has been so jumpy in late December

The price action is telling you something important: this is a narrative-heavy stock.

In the past two weeks alone, BBAI has posted multiple large-move sessions with extraordinary liquidity—~191 million shares traded Dec. 18 and ~210 million shares traded Dec. 19, when the stock gained 11.19% and closed at $6.26. ^[3] Those are not “quiet institutional accumulation” numbers; that’s a market wide awake and arguing.

What are traders arguing about?

A generative AI acquisition (Ask Sage) that could change the revenue mix
A new defense-facing radar partnership (C Speed) that strengthens the “mission-ready AI” pitch
A shareholder vote to expand authorized shares—raising the dilution question again

Let’s take them in that order.

The biggest catalyst: Ask Sage acquisition and BigBear.ai’s secure GenAI push

BigBear.ai announced it signed a definitive agreement to acquire Ask Sage, describing Ask Sage as a generative AI platform built specifically for defense and national security agencies and other highly regulated sectors. ^[4]

Here are the deal details that have gotten the most attention:

Ask Sage is expected to deliver about $25 million of annual recurring revenue (ARR) in 2025 (non-GAAP), which BigBear.ai said would be roughly six times Ask Sage’s 2024 ARR. ^[5]
BigBear.ai said Ask Sage already supports more than 100,000 users across 16,000 government teams (plus commercial users). ^[6]
BigBear.ai said it expects the acquisition to close late in Q4 2025 or early in Q1 2026, and it does not expect a material impact to consolidated 2025 results (because of timing). ^[7]

On the price tag: outside reporting and commentary have widely framed the transaction as a $250 million acquisition. ^[8]

Why this matters for BBAI stockholders

The Ask Sage deal is being treated as more than “just another acquisition” because it signals a sharper pivot toward repeatable platform revenue (ARR) instead of purely project-based services. Bulls see a possible path to a more scalable model; bears see integration risk plus the classic question: how much does this cost in dilution and execution focus?

A notably bearish take from The Motley Fool argues that BigBear.ai’s revenue trend has been declining even while AI spending is booming, and that the company appears to be “hoping for a miracle” acquisition—exactly the kind of framing that tends to polarize sentiment in stocks like this. ^[9]

Defense headline: BigBear.ai and C Speed partner on AI-enabled border security and radar

On Dec. 18, 2025, BigBear.ai announced a strategic partnership with C Speed, LLC, a U.S.-based radar and defense solutions provider. The companies said they plan to integrate BigBear.ai’s ConductorOS AI orchestration platform with C Speed’s software-defined LightWave Radar system. ^[10]

BigBear.ai and C Speed described the goal as intelligent, autonomous, real-time threat detection and decision support for defense and homeland security partners, including air and missile defense and counter-UAS (counter-drone) applications. ^[11]

One detail that stands out for investors: BigBear.ai said C Speed’s radars are already deployed across multiple Department of Homeland Security, Department of Defense, and international partner missions. ^[12]

This is the kind of announcement that feeds the “embedded in mission environments” narrative—and that narrative has real market power right now. A Barchart analysis framed the partnership as a move toward embedding AI closer to defense hardware workflows (rather than standalone software), potentially creating stickier relationships in government contracting. ^[13]

International expansion: Abu Dhabi office and a broader Middle East push

BigBear.ai also announced it opened its first Middle East office at the World Trade Center Abu Dhabi, describing the move as part of a long-term investment in the region. ^[14]

The company pointed to travel and trade as national security imperatives and noted it had established regional partnerships (including with Vigilix and Easy Lease, both owned by International Holding Company). ^[15]

BigBear.ai even linked this expansion directly back into the defense partnership story: the C Speed press release explicitly notes the partnership is expected to leverage BigBear.ai’s geographic footprint, including the new Abu Dhabi office. ^[16]

The fundamentals check: what BigBear.ai reported (Q3 2025) vs. what the stock is pricing in

Here’s the part where the universe demands numbers.

In its third-quarter 2025 results, BigBear.ai reported:

Revenue of $33.1 million, down 20% year-over-year (from $41.5 million), which the company attributed primarily to lower volume on certain Army programs. ^[17]
Gross margin of 22.4% (vs. 25.9% a year earlier). ^[18]
Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of -$9.4 million (vs. +$0.9 million a year earlier). ^[19]
SG&A of $25.3 million (vs. $17.5 million a year earlier). ^[20]
Net income of $2.5 million, which the company said was primarily driven by non-cash changes in derivative liabilities tied to convertible features and warrants (not a clean “operating profitability” signal). ^[21]
Backlog of $376 million as of Sept. 30, 2025. ^[22]
A record cash balance of $456.6 million as of Sept. 30, 2025. ^[23]
Continued full-year 2025 revenue guidance of $125 million to $140 million. ^[24]

That combination—large cash, meaningful backlog, but shrinking revenue and negative adjusted EBITDA—is basically the BigBear.ai investment debate in one paragraph.

The Dec. 30 shareholder vote: why authorized shares matter to BBAI stock

One of the most immediately “stock-relevant” developments isn’t a contract at all—it’s corporate plumbing.

In a DEFA14A filing tied to the company’s special meeting, BigBear.ai disclosed it is seeking stockholder approval to increase authorized common shares from 500,000,000 to 1,000,000,000. The meeting has been adjourned and is scheduled to reconvene on Dec. 30, 2025 at 3:00 p.m. ET (virtual). ^[25]

Key details investors are focusing on:

Voting remains open until 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 29, 2025. ^[26]
The board recommends stockholders vote “FOR” the proposal. ^[27]
The filing states approval would provide additional equity to, among other things, pursue financing activities, grant compensatory retention awards, establish strategic relationships, and pursue corporate opportunities. ^[28]

Translation in plain English

An increase in authorized shares does not automatically mean immediate dilution, but it increases the company’s capacity to issue shares later—for acquisitions, capital raises, employee compensation, or strategic deals. In a stock already associated with “dilution risk” commentary, this vote can affect sentiment even before anything happens operationally.

Analyst forecasts and price targets for BigBear.ai stock

“Forecast” can mean several different things in finance. Here’s what’s actually available and current in late December 2025:

Wall Street-style consensus targets (aggregated)

MarketBeat’s aggregated view shows:

Consensus rating: Hold
Coverage: 5 analysts (2 Buys, 2 Holds, 1 Sell)
Consensus price target: $6.33
Reported target range: $4.00 to $8.00
Based on the $6.12 price level shown in their report, that’s only a few percent implied upside. ^[29]

Fintel’s aggregation shows a somewhat higher figure:

Average one-year price target: $6.80
Range: $5.05 to $8.40 (as listed on their page)
It also lists the share price as $6.12 and market cap around $2.67B as of Dec. 23, 2025. ^[30]

These differences aren’t “someone is lying.” They’re typically driven by which analysts are included, how stale targets are handled, and how updates are timestamped.

Notable rating history (context)

Finviz summarizes a set of historical rating actions and target changes (for example, H.C. Wainwright and Cantor Fitzgerald targets and Northland’s downgrade earlier in 2025). ^[31]

That matters because BBAI tends to trade like a stock where sentiment shifts can move price as much as fundamentals—especially around deals and defense-related announcements.

Technical and positioning signals: volatility, volume, and short interest

If you’re trying to understand BBAI’s day-to-day behavior, you can’t ignore structure.

Volume: As noted earlier, BBAI has printed multiple sessions above 100 million shares, including ~191M and ~210M on Dec. 18–19. ^[32]
Short interest (snapshot): Fintel lists short interest around 91.98M shares and a short float ~21.22% (as shown on their page). ^[33]
Technical tone (example): Barchart displays a “Technical Opinion” of Weak Buy and notes the Relative Strength signal crossing below 50% as a bearish-leaning cue. ^[34]

High short interest plus high retail attention plus defense/AI headlines is the classic recipe for fast squeezes and fast reversals. It’s not mystical; it’s just market microstructure being dramatic in public.

Bull case vs. bear case: what the current analysis is really saying

The bull case for BigBear.ai stock in 2026

The optimistic thesis (seen across multiple recent commentaries) tends to rhyme:

Secure GenAI + defense distribution: Ask Sage plus BigBear.ai’s existing national security footprint could expand platform adoption in regulated environments. ^[35]
“Embedded” defense workflows: Partnerships like the C Speed radar integration reinforce the idea that BigBear.ai’s software isn’t optional—it’s part of mission systems. ^[36]
Backlog as a buffer: A $376M backlog provides a base to work from—assuming conversions and program timing cooperate. ^[37]

The bear case (and it’s not subtle)

Bearish analysis is mostly anchored on one stubborn fact: recent revenue has been falling.

BigBear.ai’s Q3 revenue decline (down 20% year over year) and negative adjusted EBITDA feed the argument that the company has not yet proven a scalable growth engine. ^[38]
Commentators also point to acquisition risk—integration issues, overpaying, or failing to translate the acquisition into durable growth. ^[39]
Valuation-focused commentary from Simply Wall St argues the stock looks expensive on sales-based metrics (they cite a price-to-sales multiple far above broader industry averages), implying the market is already pricing in a lot of success. ^[40]

And then there’s the evergreen concern: future equity issuance. The authorized share vote does not guarantee dilution, but it keeps that possibility front and center. ^[41]

Key dates and “watch items” for BBAI stockholders

Dec. 29, 2025: electronic voting open until 11:59 p.m. ET for the authorized share proposal. ^[42]
Dec. 30, 2025: the special meeting is scheduled to reconvene to vote on raising authorized shares to 1 billion. ^[43]
Late Q4 2025 / early Q1 2026: BigBear.ai’s stated expected closing window for the Ask Sage acquisition. ^[44]

Bottom line: BigBear.ai stock is trading a future that hasn’t arrived yet

As of Dec. 24, 2025, BigBear.ai (BBAI) is a classic “two-track” stock:

Track A is the strategic narrative: secure GenAI (Ask Sage), defense partnerships (C Speed), global security expansion (Abu Dhabi). ^[45]
Track B is the operating scoreboard: revenue down year-over-year, margins pressured, adjusted EBITDA negative—paired with meaningful backlog and a very large cash position. ^[46]

That tension is why forecasts are clustered near the current price (depending on the source) and why volatility stays elevated. ^[47]