BillionToOne, Inc. (NASDAQ: BLLN) is still in the “fresh IPO” phase where price discovery happens in public—loudly. On December 22, 2025, the molecular diagnostics company’s shares were trading at $97.36, down about 5.1% on the session, after opening above $103 and swinging through a $96.61–$103.85 intraday range.
There wasn’t a new company press release dated today that materially changed the story. Instead, BLLN’s move looks like part of the normal churn that follows a high-profile debut: early enthusiasm, analyst initiations, earnings/guidance digestion, and then a tug-of-war between “this could be huge” and “but how much is already priced in?”
Below is what’s current as of 22.12.2025—the latest company filings and updates, key Wall Street takes, and the forecasts investors are using to frame the next few quarters.
BLLN stock today: where BillionToOne shares stand on December 22
As of the latest trade timestamp available on December 22:
- Price: $97.36
- Day change: about -5.1%
- Open / High / Low: $103.01 / $103.85 / $96.61
- Intraday volume: ~80K shares at the time of the snapshot [1]
For a newly listed healthcare name, that intraday swing matters as much as the headline price: it signals that BLLN remains a “high beta” tape where positioning and sentiment can overpower fundamentals day-to-day.
The quick timeline: what’s “current” since BillionToOne went public
October–November 2025: IPO filing → pricing → debut pop
- Oct. 7, 2025: BillionToOne filed for a U.S. IPO (Reuters), reporting strong first-half growth in its filing-era financials. [2]
- Nov. 5, 2025: BillionToOne priced an upsized IPO at $60.00/share (4,551,100 shares; ~$273.1M gross before any overallotment). [3]
- Nov. 6, 2025: The stock debuted sharply higher—Reuters reported the shares opened well above IPO price and the company was valued around $4.4B during the first-day surge. [4]
- Nov. 7, 2025: The company said it closed the IPO with the underwriters’ option exercised in full (total 5,233,765 shares), for about $314.0M in aggregate gross proceeds. [5]
December 2025: analyst initiations → first earnings as a public company → governance update
- Dec. 1, 2025: Reuters reported broad early analyst coverage, including bullish notes highlighting prenatal leadership and oncology pipeline potential (with a 2026 MRD test called out as a key future catalyst). [6]
- Dec. 9, 2025: BillionToOne filed an 8‑K with the SEC covering (1) Q3 2025 results/guidance and (2) a board appointment. [7]
That December 9 filing is still the most important “current” fundamental anchor for BLLN as of today.
The latest fundamentals: BillionToOne’s Q3 2025 results and guidance
BillionToOne’s SEC-filed earnings release (Exhibit 99.1 to its December 9 Form 8‑K) painted a company trying to do something markets love: grow fast while improving profitability.
What BillionToOne reported for Q3 2025 (ended Sept. 30, 2025)
Key highlights from the company’s release:
- Total revenue:$83.5M, up from $38.4M a year earlier (+117% YoY)
- Prenatal revenue:$74.1M (+102% YoY)
- Oncology revenue:$8.7M, up from $1.1M (~7.6x YoY)
- Gross margin:70% (vs. 53% in Q3 2024)
- Operating income:$9.6M (vs. an operating loss of $12.6M in Q3 2024)
- Net income available to common shareholders:$1.5M, or $0.10 diluted EPS
- Cash and cash equivalents (as of Sept. 30): about $195.2M [8]
The most market-relevant detail here isn’t just growth—it’s the combination of higher average selling price, higher test volume, and improving margins, which helps justify premium valuations (when the market is in a premium-paying mood).
Management’s outlook for Q4 and full-year 2025
From the same SEC-filed release, BillionToOne guided to:
- FY 2025 revenue:$293M–$299M
- Q4 2025 revenue:$84M–$90M
- Expectation of positive GAAP operating income for Q4 2025 and full-year 2025 [9]
Those ranges effectively became the scoreboard investors are watching now. For a newly public diagnostics company, “hit guidance cleanly” is often the difference between stabilization and another volatility wave.
Governance and leadership: Anthony Pagano joins the board as audit chair
Also disclosed in the December 9 SEC 8‑K: BillionToOne appointed Anthony Pagano to its board, effective January 1, 2026, and named him chair of the audit committee. The filing notes he was appointed as a Class III director and that the board determined he meets Nasdaq independence requirements. [10]
Governance headlines rarely move a stock alone, but they matter more right after an IPO—when investors are still building trust in reporting discipline, controls, and capital allocation.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: what Wall Street is modeling for BLLN
Because BLLN is newly public, the analyst landscape is still forming. But several firms initiated coverage in early December, and the market has a fairly clear “first consensus” picture.
Consensus view (as aggregated by MarketBeat)
MarketBeat’s summary as of Dec. 22 shows:
- Consensus rating: Moderate Buy
- Average price target: about $137.83
- High / Low targets:$160 / $110
- Coverage:8 analysts (per its aggregation) [11]
Notable analyst calls reported in current coverage
Across widely circulated reports in early December:
- Piper Sandler: initiated/maintained an Overweight view with a $150 target (reported in multiple market summaries). [12]
- J.P. Morgan: initiated with an Overweight rating and later trimmed the price target to $145 from $150 while keeping the Overweight stance (per coverage summaries). [13]
- Jefferies: initiated with a Hold rating and a $117 target. [14]
- BTIG: has been cited in coverage as Buy with a $160 target. [15]
Longer-horizon growth framing from early coverage
Two particularly “forecast-like” datapoints that shaped the narrative:
- William Blair estimated $280.9M revenue in 2025 and $378.2M in 2026, and argued BillionToOne is unusual as a rapidly growing lab business that reached profitability faster than peers. [16]
- In reported coverage, J.P. Morgan’s framework has been summarized as calling for roughly 29% revenue CAGR (2025–2030) and operating margins rising toward ~9% by 2028 (as cited in market reports). [17]
Put simply: analysts are generally underwriting a story where prenatal remains a scale engine, oncology is the upside lever, and operating leverage is the valuation bridge between the two.
Why the stock is volatile: the “post-IPO physics” investors are dealing with
BLLN’s chart behavior (even without showing a chart) looks like classic post-IPO mechanics:
- Initial scarcity + excitement pushed the debut higher (Reuters described a blockbuster first day and a multi‑billion valuation). [18]
- Coverage starts, and suddenly the market has price targets—some bullish, some cautious—creating a tradable range. [19]
- First earnings/guidance as a public company becomes the first real “trust event” for longer-term holders. [20]
On December 22 specifically, BLLN’s move looks less like a fundamentals reset and more like ongoing consolidation—especially given the absence of a brand-new company catalyst dated today.
What could move BillionToOne stock next
1) Q4 execution versus guidance
Management set clear bars for Q4 and FY 2025 revenue and profitability expectations. The next major repricing event is whether the company meets (or raises) those targets. [21]
2) Oncology growth rate (the upside narrative)
BillionToOne’s oncology revenue is much smaller than prenatal today, but it’s growing quickly off a low base. Continued sequential growth—and evidence that the menu is sticky with oncologists—would reinforce the bull case. [22]
3) The MRD catalyst in 2026
Multiple reports pointed to a minimal residual disease (MRD) test expected in 2026 as a focal point. MRD is a big deal in oncology diagnostics because it can potentially detect remaining cancer burden after treatment and guide therapy decisions—if performance and adoption cooperate with the ambition. [23]
4) Reimbursement and coverage dynamics
Diagnostics businesses live and die by reimbursement clarity, coverage expansion, and payer mix. Any updates here can matter as much as a product launch—sometimes more.
The risk list (because biology is hard and markets are moody)
Even with strong growth and improving margins, investors should keep a few non-negotiable uncertainties in view:
- Reimbursement risk: coverage decisions, pricing pressure, and claims friction can hit volumes and ASPs.
- Competition: both prenatal screening and liquid biopsy are crowded arenas with well-funded incumbents and fast-moving science.
- Evidence and adoption curve: great assays still need guidelines, clinician behavior change, and operational scaling.
- Post-IPO supply and sentiment: early lockups, secondary offerings, and shifting risk appetite can create volatility independent of results.
Bottom line for December 22, 2025
As of December 22, 2025, BillionToOne stock (BLLN) is trading around $97, down on the day and still working through the noisy, normal process of post-IPO price discovery.
Fundamentally, the company’s latest SEC-filed update shows rapid growth, higher margins, and management guidance for $293M–$299M FY 2025 revenue with expected positive GAAP operating income for Q4 and the full year—strong words that now need to be proven quarter by quarter. [24]
On forecasts, early analyst coverage leans positive overall, with many published targets sitting above the current price—though the spread between bullish and cautious views is a reminder that execution (especially in oncology) is the real determinant of whether BLLN becomes a durable compounder or just a memorable IPO pop. [25]
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.billiontoone.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.billiontoone.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.tipranks.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.williamblair.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.sec.gov, 21. www.sec.gov, 22. www.sec.gov, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.sec.gov, 25. www.marketbeat.com
