NEW YORK, March 20, 2026, 13:15 EDT
Shares of Nu Holdings edged lower Friday, dipping 1.3% to $13.98 by 12:59 p.m. EDT. That move trimmed some of Thursday’s gains, when the Brazilian digital bank got a lift from a UBS upgrade and finished at $14.16, up 1.36%.
This is in focus as investors gauge if Nubank’s rapid profit growth can justify a premium over old-guard banks, especially with U.S. stocks backpedaling and rate fears in the air. Wall Street’s top indexes slid on Friday, with the conflict in the Middle East prompting traders to reassess what the Federal Reserve might do next.
UBS’s Thiago Batista bumped the stock up to Buy from Neutral, taking his price target to $17.60, just a touch above the previous $17.20. Batista called the current valuation “attractive,” pointing to projected annual earnings growth of roughly 24% from 2026 through 2029. He noted shares have slid back toward 2023 valuation territory, despite earnings more than doubling since that time. StreetInsider.com
Batista flagged the weaker spots. UBS cut its estimates a bit after Q4, citing higher credit costs and more spending versus revenue, but loan growth is still expected to pick up. The bank pointed to stronger Mexico numbers and rising disposable income for Brazil’s middle class as possible drivers for the stock.
Nu delivered another impressive set of numbers in its latest earnings: net profit jumped 50% in the fourth quarter to $894.8 million, while revenue increased 45% to $4.86 billion. The customer base hit 131 million, and total loans outstanding rose 40% to $32.7 billion. “This brings positive leverage to revenue,” Chief Financial Officer Guilherme Lago told Reuters. Reuters
But the response from investors made it clear: there’s almost no margin for error with this stock. Nu managed to top profit forecasts, and yet its shares slid 5.5% after hours on Feb. 25. Analysts zeroed in on costs and pointed to a tax rate that came in lower than anticipated, which helped boost the results.
Mexico could be the next trouble spot—a market UBS has marked as key for fresh growth. This week, Reuters said Nubank has stopped cash withdrawals at Oxxo locations in Mexico. That service, previously available at more than 22,000 stores, was part of a much broader network, offering over 30,000 spots for physical access.
Nu wasn’t the only name trading lower Friday. StoneCo dropped 2.7%, PagSeguro lost 1.8%. Wall Street’s broader retreat gathered steam, with traders dialing back expectations for imminent rate cuts—a move that usually hits growth-focused financial names first.
Still, the shares haven’t caught up to Wall Street’s collective target. According to MarketScreener, 18 analysts rate the stock a buy, with an average price target pegged at $20.19. Looking ahead, Nu has its first-quarter earnings slated for May 14, flagged on its investor calendar as the next key event. Judging by Friday’s action, investors appear to be holding out for more evidence.
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